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[Premium] Dow Transports lagging is a warning sign

Edward Harrison — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 13:00:56 +0000

There are still a lot of Dow Theory followers out there even after over 100 years. And the divergence between a bullish DJIA headline number and the lagging Dow Transports is bearish from a technical perspective

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[PREMIUM]: 2012 an inflection point toward S&P500 margin compression

Edward Harrison — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 13:36:04 +0000

What I have been saying throughout 2011 is that margin compression is going to happen no matter what. The cuts have been made and so margins cannot grow any higher from cuts. It has to come from operating leverage that increases as a result of revenue growth

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Jobs data highlight huge potential for capital loss in Treasuries

Marshall Auerback — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 20:45:36 +0000

I have been making a big deal about strength in the household series of employment and the trend in IUCs. These are statistical series that do not get revised out of recognition. They often tell the tale at turning points. Given that past household survey employment and IUC trends have persisted, the current bond market rally will be even more insane and the stock market will probably continue to work higher, even though the favorable seasonable window has closed. I expect the recent trend of large outflows from stocks to bonds over the last year (and last five years) to be reversed in 2012. Not only are interest rates at generational lows but many high-quality companies are yielding (at 2.5% or even better) well above the yield on the 10-year U.S. note

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The Unlikely Bull Market

Niels Jensen — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 16:30:46 +0000

This is not the time to be fully invested but neither is it the time to be side lined. We are in a nervous market where great opportunities present themselves at regular intervals. We recommend holding 25-50% in cash or cash like instruments (depending on your risk profile) which can be deployed at short notice when those opportunities arise

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Dollar Mixed as Spain raises 4.5 bn euros in bond auction

BBH — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 12:30:28 +0000

The dollar is currently mixed against the majors and EMs as asset markets consolidate near recent highs. Spain raised 4.5 bn euros in a bond auction the upper end of their desired range. On the data front, Australia’s December trade surplus exceeded expectations increasing to A$1.71bln in December from a revised A$1.34 bln in November (was A$1.38 bln). Chinese markets outperformed the region closing nearly 2% higher, but the news flow was mixed, and even slightly contradictory

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Chart of the Day: S&P500 Up 4.36% in January

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 02:30:54 +0000

Interesting couple of charts on the S&P500. The top shows the narrowing upward channel in which the index has traded since the beginning of the year relative to the wider medium-term channel. The collapse in volatility was the direct result of the massive liquidity injections of the ECB’s LTRO program, in our opinion

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Dollar Pops Back

BBH — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 12:30:21 +0000

Dollar is broadly stronger against the majors and EM currencies after Greece rejected calls for direct budget control. Asian stocks fell, with the MSCI Asia Pacific index down 0.9%; EuroStoxx 600 is currently down 0.7%. Economic data saw Spanish Q4 GDP contract, EZ confidence rise less than expected; US personal income

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[PREMIUM] More on the Fed – Obama stimulus plan

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 13:00:55 +0000

My last weekly said the hand-in-hand Fed activism and fiscal activism via Obama's mortgage proposal is bullish. Let me add a bit of colour here

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On the Collapse of the Shanghai Composite

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 19:00:00 +0000

Shanghai’s channel surfing Panda bears are speaking with a little higher pitch this weekend after getting their ‘hood caught in a vicious squeeze and reversal. The stock index has bounced 8.7 percent off its January 6th lows after falling 31 percent from last April’s 12-month high. The Shanghai was down 39 percent from its August ‘09 post-crash high before reversing earlier this month. Hugh Hendry nailed it

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Grokking the Canadian Dollar in Three Correlations

Marc Chandler — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 15:00:28 +0000

The brief study presented here shows that over the past 60 days, the Canadian dollar has been more correlated with the S&P 500 than most currencies we looked at, and is also highly correlated with the euro, though in line with most of the other major currencies. It correlation with crude oil is considerably weaker than with the S&P 500 or the euro, but is also in line with most of the other currencies we looked at

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Euro and S&P 500 Correlations Revisited

Marc Chandler — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 13:25:10 +0000

As of yesterday the 60-day correlation stands near 0.78 and the 30-day correlation has fallen from 0.81 in the middle of last month to 0.65. This gives additional evidence of some fracturing of the risk-on/risk-off rubric that has been such an important characteristic of the investment climate

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Correction Tuesday?

Marc Chandler — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 12:30:20 +0000

China's slew of economic data came in better than expected this coupled with successful bill auctions by Spain, Greece and Belgium and a very strong German ZEW (-21 v -53.8) is rekindling the appetite for risk today. The euro is up over a cent and is running into resistance near $1.28. More generally, major and emerging market currencies are trading broadly higher against the greenback. Equities and commodities are higher

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Protecting wealth in a world of recurring crisis

Edward Harrison — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 16:30:10 +0000

Happy Wednesday. I know the news is 'less good' today than it was when I last wrote you but writing these weeklies always puts me in a more positive frame of mind. Nevertheless, today's topic is about downside risk. My hope is to frame the economic scenario globally and then to offer some strategies of mitigating what I believe is significant downside investment risk

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Chart of the Day: The Shanghai Bounce

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 21:00:05 +0000

The Shanghai has put in its best two day performance since September ’09, rising 5.8 percent. After its post crash peak in August 2009, Chinese stocks have fallen almost 40 percent before hitting their lows last Friday

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The fireworks will start with Spain or Italy

Edward Harrison — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 22:30:50 +0000

Here's what I had to say about Europe on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster on Thursday night. I'm not bullish on the real economy there (but I still expect relative share outperformance due to lower P/Es). The US is having a bit of a data surge to the upside: housing, employment, manufacturing, all of these numbers have been better of late

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2012 (short version)

Edward Harrison — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 13:54:14 +0000

Yesterday morning, I did the first weekly newsletter on my ten surprises for 2012. Here's a brief version of the list

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Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2012

Edward Harrison — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 13:45:35 +0000

As always, I present you Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2011. He is bullish yet again - on both the US and emerging markets

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A Tale of Two Markets

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 07:13:05 +0000

The Shanghai has turned down this evening after opening up and looks to continue the downtrend. That is one ugly chart. Meanwhile, the S&P500 looks like it really wants to resolve its wedge formation to the upside. After a year of head fakes, bull and bear traps, traders may have lost a little trust in the charts, however. A good employment number on Friday may provide a nice catalyst for some resolution

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Chart of the Day: S&P500 2011 Heat Map

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 16:24:11 +0000

A visual representation of how stocks in the S&P 500 fared in 2011 with Green for gains and red for losses

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Chart of the Day: Market Year in Review

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 19:20:06 +0000

Wow! Who would of thunk it. The Dow the only major global equity index positive for the year. U.S. Treasuries up 15-20 percent, the dollar index (Dixe) positive; Brazil and Chinese equities down 20 percent and India down almost 25 percent. Copper was on everybody’s buy list at the beginning year, finished down over 20 percent; and foodstuffs had nowhere to go but north, finishing flat after spiking earlier in the year and taking most of the political leaders in North Africa with them

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Volatility Lurks

Frederick Sheehan — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 21:00:42 +0000

The S&P 500 volatility index - the VIX - is a measurement of volatility expectations. It has fallen 50% since the (latest) agreement to save the euro was announced. If the VIX falls to 18, call options are worth considering

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Dollar Softer As Markets Head Into Holiday Mode

BBH — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 12:30:18 +0000

US dollar is softer vs. majors Friday as markets head into holiday mode; sentiment improving a bit in the absence of any major negative euro zone developments. France Q3 GDP revised weaker, Italy confidence lower than expected; euro zone recession in 2012 will likely exacerbate debt problems. RUB outperforms as central bank narrows interest rate corridor; TRY weaker after central bank auctions only $50 mln today vs. $1 bln bid

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Market Sentiment Improves After ECB LTRO

BBH — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 12:30:07 +0000

US dollar is mixed vs. majors Thursday as market sentiment improving a bit in the wake of ECB’s 3-year LTRO. Merkel advisor Bofinger warned that the euro zone has six months to solve the debt crisis; Greek creditors reportedly balking at IMF haircut proposal; France downgrade rumor made the rounds again. HUF stabilizes after S&P downgrade but further weakness likely; Turkey central bank leaves rates steady at 5.75%, as expected

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The 2012 Blind Side: China’s Housing Bust

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 14:49:10 +0000

Foreign Affairs has just posted a must read piece, "China’s Real Estate Bubble May Have Just Popped", which will sound very familiar to Global Macro Monitor readers. We’re going to be spend a lot time over the holidays thinking how this plays out in China’s financial sector and the implications for markets

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Dollar Firmer As European News Stream Remains Negative

BBH — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 13:17:34 +0000

US dollar was firmer vs. majors Monday even as euro zone news stream remains negative; Moody's cut Belgium two notches Friday to Aa3 and kept a negative outlook. Euro short positions at record high on IMM; euro zone Finance Ministers to hold conference call Monday; France auctions paper today. Reported death of North Korean leader Kim hurt KRW; EM FX mostly weaker as Brazil remains obsessed with

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Chart of the Day: Post-Bubble Performance Comps of U.S. Financials and Techs

Global Macro Monitor — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 14:35:12 +0000

The guys over at Bespoke put out a great piece yesterday comparing the post-bubble performance of U.S. financials after the February 2007 top and the technology sector after the dot.com peak in March 2000.

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Market Facing Strong Headwinds

Comstock Partners — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 13:15:11 +0000

All in all, the negative fallout from the EU sovereign debt crisis and the outlook for the U.S. economy are likely to have a strong downward pull on the stock market. Rather than reflecting fear, the market seems unusually complacent as investors are overconfident that the world financial authorities can pull a rabbit out of the hat at the last minute.

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Downgrades, Upgrades and US Inflation

BBH — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 12:30:57 +0000

The dollar is broadly weaker as news developments remain mostly positive, boosting sentiment. North American session sees US November inflation; euro likely supported today on short-covering rally. RBI left rates on hold at 8.5%, as expected; IDR rallies after Fitch upgraded it to investment grade

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The Euro and the S&P 500: Correlation Update

Marc Chandler — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 18:30:16 +0000

One of the characteristics of the investment climate that we have tracked over the course of the year is the tight relationship between the euro and the S&P 500. The following observations are based correlations conducted on percentage change of the euro and the S&P

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The Ugly Chart Contest

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 18:00:00 +0000

Here’s a couple ugly charts we’re monitoring: China’s Shanghai Composite stock index and Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB). Do you think there’s causality here? Remember the “China is buying/hoarding every commodity” story

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Curbing Our Enthusiasm, Increasing Our Bet…

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 19:00:07 +0000

We could be wrong on this one and may have too much faith in the Eurocrats, but think of consequences if we are wrong? If the EU fails here, it will 1931 all over again and will put the “Great” in this rolling depression/recession. Therefore, we bet they’ll come up with just enough to let Super Mario do his thing. After that we’ll reassess and look at the long-term consequences, but hopefully 100 S&P points higher

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Bears Refuse to Cede the 200-day SMA

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 02:00:00 +0000

Once again, the 200-day moving average proved to be formidable resistance for the S&P500. After trading though the 1264-65 level on the now expected daily afternoon market moving FT article the index couldn’t hold its water and sold off into the close. On the positive side, the S&P500 made a higher high, higher low, and closed in the green relative to yesterday’s price action. Not a bad way to work off an overbought condition. We’re still looking for a nice Santa Claus rally that takes the S&P500 up over 1300 to close the year. Could be wrong and always with a stop

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Bears Refuse to Cede the 200-day SMA originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Chart of the Day: S&P500 Finding Resistance At 200-DMA

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 02:00:39 +0000

Looked like today could be the day the S&P500 broke through and closed above its 200-day. That is, before the tape bomb out of the S&P putting most of the ‘Zone countries on negative watch for a credit downgrade. Let’s see how this plays out in in Europe tomorrow and whether the hardliners in Germany say, “… told you so!’” The chart of S&P500 shows why the 200-day moving average matters and should be monitored

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Chart of the Day: S&P500 Finding Resistance At 200-DMA originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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The Facts They Don’t Want You to Know

Niels Jensen — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 15:30:03 +0000

If I told you that the composition of an average UK equity fund changes by 90% a year, would that startle you? How would you feel if I added that the 20 funds with the highest turnover returned just 4.7% to investors in the 3 years to the end of March 2011 whereas the 20 funds with the lowest turnover returned 16.8% over the same period? From the same source: Out of 1,230 funds across 12 different strategies, only 35 fund managers produced a performance consistent enough to earn their fund a place in the top quartile in each of the last three years (upper half of chart 1). In a universe of 1,230 funds, over a three year period and completely disregarding skill, the expected number of funds consistently ranked in the top quartile is 1,230*0.253=19.22. In other words, more than half the 35 managers were there not because of skill but because, statistically, someone was always likely to ‘over-achieve’

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The Facts They Don’t Want You to Know originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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NFP up +120,000, unemployment rate 8.6%, hourly earnings down

Edward Harrison — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 14:21:59 +0000

Bottom line: the numbers are decent but they beat expectations. Markets are in a bullish end of year tape painting frame of mind, so stocks will rally. Daddy needs a bonus so Santa is indeed coming to town. The Santa Claus rally is on

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NFP up +120,000, unemployment rate 8.6%, hourly earnings down originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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