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The US Financial Conditions Index (BFCIUS) is a composite measure of the condition of U.S. financial markets, using yield spreads, indices from bond, equity and money markets. Right now, it is at a 32-month high.

But, while this is supposed to measure market strength, it really seems to measure market bullishness. I see the US [...]

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Marc Faber talks with Bloomberg about the outlook for US shares, saying he believes the market could correct 20% if the S&P reaches a new high (above 1150). That’s the definition of a cyclical bear market, by the way.
Faber also discusses the outlook for the euro and the dollar. The video runs just under five [...]

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The following link goes to an hour-long video from the Russia Forum 2010 featuring famed investors and market watchers Hugh Hendry and Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Marc Faber was the moderator. The session is “Investments: Where is the Money in 2010 – What are the Risks?" from the second-day of the three day forum.
 

 
Source
Session Video [...]

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With stocks now up significantly from March 2009 lows, a mild correction has been underway for the past two weeks.  Even if it risks becoming a major correction, we will still be well above levels just 6 months ago.  But that has Alan Greenspan worried.
Business Week reports:
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said a U.S. [...]

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The Absolute Return Letter, February 2010
“A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for [...]

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I woke up this morning thinking about James Baker’s October 1987 comments on the dollar which many feel precipitated the 1987 crash. This was on my mind as I contemplated the implications of Obama’s recent regulatory announcement bombshell. The market has been jittery the last two days and the VIX is way up. So, 1987 [...]

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Markets were disappointed by today’s unemployment data because they reveal how difficult it has been for the employment situation to improve in a meaningful way. The employment market is improving, just not as much as one would hope. Below are four charts derived from the household survey data that tell the story, but also point [...]

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Given the fact that I have just finished writing two articles on Wien’s predictions for 2010, I thought it relevant to look back at the last three years of Wien’s surprises to just before the housing crisis.  I posted the 2009 predictions last year. The post is here.  Wien calls these events that he gives [...]

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Byron Wien was amazingly accurate last year in his economic predictions even though his annual list is an attempt to build a non-consensus list of likely outlier events.  So, I was eager to see his 2010 list, which was unveiled earlier today. Please read his list in the post here as background.
Reviewing 2009 predictions
When Wien [...]

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I will have some commentary on this in a future post or an updated version of this one. Update 1600 ET: you can see my commentary in the next post here.
The Surprises of 2010

The United States economy grows at a stronger than expected 5% real rate during the year and the unemployment level drops below [...]