Post Tagged with: "stimulus"
Hatzius pegs a double dip at only 25 percent
Here’s Jan Hatzius, Chief US Economist at Goldman, talking to Steve Liesman on CNBC talking about the economy and taxes (Hat tip Joe Weisenthal). Hatzius sees significant growth risks but is more sanguine on a multi-year recovery scenario than I have been. &#
China is Still a Renegade Nation
A few years ago, Chris Dialynas and I wrote a piece which introduced the concept of “renegade economics”. It was derived from a Frank D. Graham’s 1943 essay titled, “Fundamentals of International Monetary Policy.” Graham, a Princeton University economist, wrote: “In international affairs we must therefore strive to reconcile the liberty of the individual, the
Anticipating the End of a Weak Recovery
By most estimates, the statistical recovery which began in the second half of 2009 in the US has been weak. Many had been talking about a V-shaped recovery early this year. However, given the magnitude of the imbalances in the U.S. leading up to recession, the underperformance of this technical recovery is not surprising. Now,
Galbraith: Thoughts on a Plan B
The following is a post by James K. Galbraith as originally published this Monday at the New America Foundation’s website. In July 2008, in a memorandum for the Obama campaign team and later published in Challenge, I wrote as follows: If the above analysis is correct, the political capital of the new presidency risks being
Marshall Auerback Urges Job Guarantees Over Jobless Benefits
As you know, I have been back pedalling on my support for fiscal stimulus since late in 2009. I still think fiscal policy is effective – more so than monetary policy; quantitative easing is a bust because we are in a liquidity trap. But the allocation of government money has been politically motivated and wasteful.
One Small Step for Recovery, One Giant Leap Still Needed
Electoral disaster has a way of focusing the mind. Perhaps this is the best way to explain President Obama’s latest initiatives: an investment in the nation’s roads, railways and runways that would cost at least $50 billion, along with a permanent extension of the research and development tax allowance, which represents a further $200 billion
Why the U.S. economy is weak
My friend Rob Parenteau says "most professional investors are high frequency macro data and short run asset price driven." He basically means they have no real macro analytical framework to use when making investment decisions. Rob says "it is just a video game for them, where they trace and extrapolate the recent momentum." Rob is
Home Sales: Up, Down or Sideways From Here
By Annaly Capital Management Existing home sales can’t go to zero, can they? They clocked in at 3.83 million on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis in July, down 27% from the prior year, half of the 2005 peak of 7.25 million and the lowest since the National Association of Realtors started keeping records in 1999.
Minack: If fiscal policy is dead, what does that mean for risk assets?
From Gerard Minack of Morgan Stanley (hat tip Scott): The past two years have demonstrated the high cost of these policy errors. More to the point, the private sector now seems leery of debt and aiming to increase saving. This matters a lot, in our view. It means that monetary policy is battling two headwinds.
Economic Weakness Accelerating
By Comstock Partners It becomes clearer every day that the economy is headed for a renewed recession or a recovery so slow it will seem like one. Initial unemployment claims climbed to 500,000 last week for the first time since November while the Philadelphia Fed index dropped below the zero line for the first time
Xie Says West’s Stimulus Stoking Emerging Market Inflation
Here’s Andy Xie spinning his inflation tale of woe. He thinks western stimulus is not creating demand or inflation in the west but stoking inflation in emerging markets, causing them to overheat. Take a look. I have made a similar argument about emerging market asset bubbles in the 1990s. For Greenspan, the Fed cannot stop
The Big Interview with David Rosenberg
Below is a very good and nearly unfiltered 30-minute session with David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff. He speaks with the Wall Street Journal’s Kelly Evans in the weekly "Big Interview" feature, a format I really like. I have featured Stephen Roach and Sheila Bair at CW from previous big interviews. Rosenberg has been one of