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[Premium] Daily commentary: thoughts on austerity as a policy tool and on India as a black swan

Edward Harrison — Wed, 23 May 2012 14:41:49 +0000

The news flow today is about the same as it has been throughout the week: JPMorgan Chase and Facebook in the US and Greece and to a lesser degree now Spain in the EU. I think these are the wrong narratives to be focused on. As I wrote yesterday, I believe China will suffer a hard landing but that India will be worse than China. In my view, the economic slowdown in India is the biggest story that's not making headlines. Then there is the debate over austerity. I posted on how we had the same debates about austerity under the gold standard while Hoover was President in the US during the Great Depression (see Hoover on austerity to balance the budget and defend the dollar in 1932). Here's my view on that debate

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Ray Dalio on Deleveraging

Edward Harrison — Tue, 22 May 2012 12:51:43 +0000

Ray Dalio was featured in Barron's at the weekend. He spoke about the various options available to affect a private sector deleveraging. He sees three ways which he calls austerity, restructuring, and money printing. Below is an excerpt of his commentary

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[Premium] Daily commentary: More Chinese stimulus in the works

Edward Harrison — Thu, 17 May 2012 11:54:42 +0000

Yesterday I wrote about Chinese trade growth plummeting. This is having a negative impact on economic growth. The Chinese authorities get that. And so they have decided to boost demand

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Richard Nixon: 1971 Annual Message to the Congress on the State of the Union

Edward Harrison — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 14:24:50 +0000

I have highlighted some of the state of the union addresses by Herbert Hoover in the past because I see the Great depression as a time with certain parallels to the present economic hardship. Let's look at the 1970s instead now. Here's Richard Nixon from 1971, with what was considered a conservative agenda in 1971 based on balancing the federal budget and rolling back centralised governance. However, regarding details, Nixon proposes small government ideas on welfare reform and big government ideas in almost all other aspects of his State of the Union Address. I have bolded what I consider the most important parts

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Doug Casey on the Coming War with Iran

Casey Research — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 04:16:04 +0000

It could just be saber rattling during an election year, but Western powers have been provoking Iran for years now - two decades, really. I just saw another report proclaiming that Iran is likely to attack the US, which is about as absurd as the allegations Bush made about Iraq bombing the US, when he fomented that invasion. It's starting to look rather serious at this point, so I do think the odds favor actual fighting in the not-too-distant future

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[Premium] More on the Fed – Obama stimulus plan

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 13:00:55 +0000

My last weekly said the hand-in-hand Fed activism and fiscal activism via Obama's mortgage proposal is bullish. Let me add a bit of colour here

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Monetary and Fiscal Policy for Sovereign Currencies

Randall Wray — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 13:30:48 +0000

This week we begin a new topic: functional finance. This will occupy us for the next several blog posts. Today we will lay out Abba Lerner’s approach to policy

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My comments on MMT’s job guarantee idea

Edward Harrison — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 13:30:24 +0000

Over the holidays, a debate broke out in the blogosphere about the so-called job guarantee idea that the MMT folks have bandied about. I call this controversial idea "Unemployment Insurance for the 21st Century", something I first addressed in 2009, based on a post by Randall Wray. My view: a job guarantee will never happen in the US unless we have a deep Depression like the one that began in 1929. Politically, this idea is a non-starter on this side of the Atlantic

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News Links: Osborne to Fund Infrastructure Projects as UK Retail Sales Fall

Edward Harrison — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 14:30:40 +0000

News links for 28 November

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Bill Gross and Larry Fink on the economy

Edward Harrison — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 20:19:18 +0000

Bloomberg Television has another great set of interviews to see, this time with Larry Fink of BlackRock and Bill Gross of PIMCO. The two sat down with Bloomberg Television's Erik Schatzker for an exclusive conversation at an alumni event hosted by UCLA Anderson School of Management (I guess both are UCLA alums; I almost went there myself). They covered a huge range of topics in the interview from the US supercommittee to Occupy Wall Street to the European Sovereign Debt Crisis and on down the line. Very good stuff Videos below

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