Credit Writedowns » Stephen Roach

Stephen Roach on US, the Fed, China, and Europe

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:00:02 +0000

Stephen Roach says the Fed is going all in in support of QE and I agree. But what else are they going to do? Look at Europe, for example. The ECB there has a hydra-headed problem with sovereigns and banks on the brink of insolvency and they too have expanded the balance sheet like mad. China faces many of the same challenges with excess credit growth and fragile financial firms in the face of asset price deflation

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Roach Sees ‘Relatively Contained’ Recession in Europe

Edward Harrison — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 03:00:14 +0000

Stephen Roach told Bloomberg television earlier today that he does not expect the recession in Europe to be severe. Therefore, he believes the impact on other economies, particularly in Asia that depends on Europe for external demand for exports, will be limited. Video below

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Stephen Roach on the IMF bailout, Chinese banks and US consumers

Edward Harrison — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 02:17:42 +0000

Here’s a good all-encompassing Bloomberg TV video with Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach from Friday. He is not impressed with the IMF plans that the Europeans are working on, calling the numbers “chump change”. Roach also talks about the US and Chinese economies as well. The video is below followed by the copy from Bloomberg

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Andy Xie: Europe’s is a money distribution problem

Edward Harrison — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 13:00:00 +0000

Europe has an enormous productive capacity, Greece included. Debt introduces a money distribution problem that becomes a flashpoint during periods of economic weakness because the inability of large debtors to pay imperils both the debtor, the creditor and everyone whose income is derived from those sources. If the debtors are large enough as in the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone, you get a systemic crisis that often leads to depression. The European sovereign debt crisis is all about apportioning losses between debtors, creditors, and taxpayers from debts that simply cannot be repaid in real terms

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Stephen Roach on America’s other 87 deficits

Edward Harrison — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 20:00:32 +0000

Here are a few excerpts from Stephen Roach’s latest at Project Syndicate

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China will retaliate if US imposes sanctions

Edward Harrison — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 13:54:01 +0000

Professor Professor Xiang Songzuo from the Centre for International Monetary Research at Renmin University in Beijing told the BBC yesterday there would definitely be retaliation if the US moves to sanctions against China. If this scenario occurs, wouldn’t this be similar to the trade dynamic from the 1930s

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Roach on the Zombie American Consumer and Debt Forgiveness

Edward Harrison — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 14:14:43 +0000

I doubt we are going to see wide scale debt forgiveness until defaults and debt deflation have taken center stage. But this is something to consider as it was an approach used during the Great Depression

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Stephen Roach: Consumers need debt jubilee

Edward Harrison — Mon, 22 Aug 2011 23:00:00 +0000

The over-indebted American consumer will be hard pressed to simultaneously reduce debt and maintain levels of consumption that support economic growth. On CNBC today, Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley says, we need a debt jubilee for consumers

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Roach and Roubini: Chinese have lost confidence in America’s ‘dysfunctional economic stewardship’

Edward Harrison — Wed, 27 Jul 2011 13:44:30 +0000

Separately, both Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Roach, two leading American economists with differing views on the Chinese domestic economy have pointed out the concern China has with the dysfunctional US political system. Increasingly, the Chinese are showing signs that they are not pleased with tying up so much of their wealth in US dollars. How the Chinese plan to act upon their concerns is another matter, however

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Roach: Return of the Living Dead

Edward Harrison — Thu, 16 Jun 2011 13:47:35 +0000

Rather than adding stimulus with the aim of goosing demand to help the economy reach escape velocity, I would say that the central objective of economic policy is to help the economy reach full employment. Doing so will increase demand, increase output, and cut budget deficits tremendously. Policy makers should do this while aiding the economy in reallocating scarce resources to areas that will sustain longer-term productivity growth. In America, that means less resources in finance and housing and perhaps more in technology and infrastructure

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Stephen Roach: Economy Must Get Off ‘Steroids’

Edward Harrison — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 20:45:02 +0000

Roach talks to Bloomberg's Carol Massar about the risks to an economy operating at stall speed as well as Federal Reserve monetary policy and economic lessons from Japan's lost decades. He thinks a recessionary relapse is more likely than most, but still recommends reducing monetary liquidity and fiscal stimulus. "You can't stand in the way of balance sheet repair," Roach says

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Has Anyone Noticed The Mammoth Shifts in Chinese Economic Policy?

Edward Harrison — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 19:00:14 +0000

I don't think people realize that the Chinese have just made a rather sizable shift in economic policy. The Chinese are moving on multiple fronts now toward a new economic paradigm that includes slower growth but more domestic consumption. And this will have major implications for the rest of the world

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Xie and Roach: China Should Worry About Inflation

Edward Harrison — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 22:30:00 +0000

On the back of 10+% growth in 2010, it is now apparent that China has a burgeoning inflation problem. A whole confluence of factors may come into play here. A labour shortage in China, food price inflation, and out of control money supply growth all are impinging on consumer prices. It should be noted that

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Comments by Faber, Gross, Roach, and Grantham on the Political Economy

Edward Harrison — Mon, 17 Jan 2011 21:00:50 +0000

Over the past several days, I have caught some very good commentary by a number of well-known financial industry experts. I wanted to share my own thoughts with you on their commentary, especially in light of my last posts on Eisenhower’s Farewell Address and The New Monetary Consensus. I have featured two of the commentaries

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Stephen Roach on CNBC

Edward Harrison — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 19:00:14 +0000

CNBC has a lot of good guests on this week. Here’s another clip from earlier today. This time it’s Stephen Roach talking about asymmetric monetary policy and financial bubbles. Roach believes the Fed needs to entirely rethink its policy stance which Roach describes as allowing asset bubbles to form and cleaning up after the mess.

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Stephen Roach: US cannot handle the liquidity provided by Fed

Edward Harrison — Mon, 15 Nov 2010 13:30:00 +0000

Stephen Roach argues that the U.S. is not equipped to turn the Fed’s liquidity into domestic demand so the liquidity provided by quantitative easing will simply leak out abroad to form asset bubbles somewhere else. He is principally concerned with Asia here and suggests capital controls are one route to deal with this problem. Of

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Stephen Roach: QE represents ‘what got us into the mess’

Edward Harrison — Tue, 09 Nov 2010 23:30:32 +0000

I am on-board with Roach’s sentiments. This is certainly what I take away from the U.S. policy mix. Now, a lot of economists of the Keynesian variety are telling us that the problems in the US are cyclical i.e. an aggregate demand (AD) problem. Certainly, this is true if you are using a flow model

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Stephen Roach: Quantitative Easing Won’t Work

Edward Harrison — Tue, 12 Oct 2010 21:00:54 +0000

"Global imbalances are a shared responsibility. The world is dead wrong to blame it on China." That’s how Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach began his interview with CNBC Asia. I agree 100% with these sentiments as I discussed in my post on My thoughts on the ‘currency war’. Nor is it about Japan alone or the

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Roach: 40% chance of a double dip

Edward Harrison — Sat, 10 Jul 2010 15:00:00 +0000

Stephen Roach was the third interviewee in the Wall Street Journal’s new video format "the Big Interview." He sees a weak recovery and believes a double dip is more likely than the consensus. Roach also talks about the Federal Reserve and why he would not have voted for Ben Bernanke. His case for a double

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Chanos, Roach Discuss Outlook for China’s Economy

Edward Harrison — Wed, 05 May 2010 23:04:13 +0000

Another classic from Bloomberg News. It runs about 22 minutes. I love Roach’s quip in jest to Chanos: "You ignorant slut." That quip in jest belies the congruence in Roach and Chanos’ views. Roach does say: "I’m not denying there’s not a bubble." He just feels the bubble will not lead to the kinds of

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Roach: GD II awaits if China bashing rhetoric turns into protectionism

Edward Harrison — Mon, 29 Mar 2010 23:12:35 +0000

Stephen Roach is pulling no punches now. After quipping "I think we should take the baseball bat out on Paul Krugman regarding pro-protectionist statements Krugman made earlier this month, Roach has launched a blistering attack on the protectionist rhetoric in America. In an opinion piece released today in the Financial Times, Roach blamed America’s problems

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Roach: I think we should take the baseball bat out on Paul Krugman

Edward Harrison — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 04:39:04 +0000

Notable quotes in this 5 minute segment: "They don’t want to look in the mirror. America doesn’t have a China problem. It really has a savings problem. America has the biggest shortfall of national savings of any leading country in modern history. And when you don’t have saving you have to run current account deficits

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Roach: "weak, anaemic, fragile, potential vulnerable to a double dip”

Edward Harrison — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 16:00:13 +0000

This is how Stephen Roach describes the economy despite the largest monetary and stimulus in global history. Below is a TV interview Roach recently did on CNBC TV-18 as a video in two parts with the linked transcript at the bottom. Roach says that historical precedent demonstrates recessions precipitated by large private sector debt burdens

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More from Chanos on the Chinese property bubble

Edward Harrison — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 15:16:43 +0000

Given my post on Jim Rogers’ doubting Chanos’ knowledge about China, I thought it appropriate to post the latest Chanos interview on the China property bubble. This call by Chanos is really setting us up for some seriously entrenched camps of pro-China bulls (like Rogers)against China sceptics (like Chanos, but also like Andy Xie). Is

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Stephen Roach: Chance of Double Dip 40%

Edward Harrison — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 01:49:25 +0000

Here is more of Marc Faber, this time with Stephen Roach joining from Asia. Faber starts things off by making a point I have made many times in the past, namely that the Federal Reserve’s easy money policy is asymmetric; they are quick to cut on the way down, but slow to raise rates on

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A conversation with Stephen Roach on Charlie Rose

Edward Harrison — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 12:25:38 +0000

This morning, I ran across a post by Prieur du Plessis, which linked out to a Stephen Roach interview on Charlie Rose. Roach is the head of Morgan Stanley Asia and has been a voice to listen to when trying to discern where China is headed and how its relationship with the United States will

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Roach: The west went on a “drunken binge of excess consumption”

Edward Harrison — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 13:37:19 +0000

Stephen Roach doesn’t mince words. He calls monetary policy during the bubble years “reckless and irresponsible” and he thinks politics is thwarting any meaningful regulatory reform, a view I also hold. I think the point of Roach’s attack is that a lot of finger-pointing has been directed at Wall Street and even Main Street. But,

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Stephen Roach is talking double dip again

Edward Harrison — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 13:22:58 +0000

Nouriel Roubini is the most prominent economist to warn that a double-dip recession would be a distinct possibility if economic policy-makers return to policy normalization too quickly. Now, Stephen Roach, head of Morgan Stanley Asia, is making similar arguments. Roach was on Bloomberg Radio’s show Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene and Ken Pruitt yesterday, where

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Stephen Roach: The case against Bernanke

Edward Harrison — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 19:21:13 +0000

While most economists have come out in favor of Barack Obama’s decision to re-appoint Ben Bernanke as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Stephen Roach has penned an Op-Ed in today’s Financial Times which highlights the case against Bernanke. It is must reading. Roach has three main points. Before the Lehman bankruptcy, Bernanke was an

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Stephen Roach sees a W-shaped recovery for China

Edward Harrison — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 00:18:18 +0000

The US is not the only place where a double dip downturn is to be feared. China has its own economic imbalances to deal with. Too much money is being thrown at the problem creating malinvestment and a bubble economy, shares having doubled this year alone. Stephen Roach thinks much of the stimulus money in

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Roach: “Liquidity is seeking return”

Edward Harrison — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 21:52:25 +0000

Here’s a nice clip from Stephen Roach from last week asking “where’s the demand?” His thesis is pretty simple: we have an inventory-induced upturn that might actually show positive GDP growth in the U.S. for Q3, what I have termed the mother of all inventory corrections. But, that’s it. Underneath this is no discernible

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Stephen Roach is still bearish, no recovery until 2010

Edward Harrison — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 17:15:37 +0000

Recently, I have highlighted the comments of a number of investing gurus, most of whom are fairly positive on the market. This includes Jeremy Grantham, Marc Faber, Bill Fleckenstein, Fred Hickey, Marty Fridson and Steven Leuthold (Louise Yamada is a notable exception). However, when it comes to the global economy, the situation is much murkier, the likes of David Rosenberg at Merrill Lynch/BofA have made the case for continued economic weakness in the United States. The standard bearer of the global-economy-is-weak-and-needs-rebalancing theme is Stephen Roach. And he is not a tad bullish on the global economy

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Stephen Roach: Downturn in Asia less severe, but recovery later

Edward Harrison — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 02:30:04 +0000

Morgan Stanley Asia head Stephen Roach believes that Asia will weather the economic storm with a less severe downturn than the West. However, as the economies are predominantly export-led, he also believes that the countries are followers, not leaders. Translation: Asia will recover more slowly. Asia will have a less acute impact from the global

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Stephen Roach: “Rates can go to unusually low levels for much longer than people think”

Edward Harrison — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 21:00:15 +0000

With the global economy n recession and inflation headed toward zero, government bonds are looking like the best place to put ones money. As a result, we have seen yields on these assets drop to incredibly low levels in the world's largest developed economies as their prices have increased. Treasury securities. They may show all the hallmarks of a bubble. But does that mean that the bubble will end now? Here's what Stephen Roach says

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Stephen Roach: “Rates can go to unusually low levels for much longer than people think” originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Stephen Roach: Asia is source of stagflation 12 Jun 2008
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Stephen Roach: Americans’ abandonment of overconsumption is a good thing

Edward Harrison — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 00:55:00 +0000

Stephen Roach must feel a certain sense of Schadenfreude because he has been warning since the end of the Technology Bubble that U.S. monetary policy was reckless and would end in a very bad way. The bubble reached heights few anticipated, making Roach seem like a Cassandra for a number of years. However, now that the bubble has burst and his economic predictions have proven right, we would be well advised to listen to him regarding where the global economy is now headed

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Stephen Roach: Americans’ abandonment of overconsumption is a good thing originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Stephen Roach: Asia is source of stagflation 12 Jun 2008
Stephen Roach has a bone to pick with Congress 29 Sep 2008
Stephen Roach and Jim Grant: Video of credit crisis thoughts 29 Sep 2008