Credit Writedowns » Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio on the D-Process in Europe

Edward Harrison — Sun, 18 Sep 2011 23:14:05 +0000

The D-Process played out in greater initial force in the US private sector. Now Europe is playing catch-up, but more via the public sector due to the restrictions imposed by the Euro. Ray Dalio comments on how he sees this process proceding and how to invest in this environment

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Edward Harrison — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 14:00:04 +0000

Ray Dalio spoke to Barron’s in an interview that appeared in the weekly this past weekend. The themes of the conversation were the following: The world is on a dual track with emerging markets doing much better than developed economies. China is growing at a fantastic rate (15% nominal per year) while interest rates are

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Another conversation with Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio

Edward Harrison — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 22:00:38 +0000

The last time Ray Dalio conducted a major interview, the global economy seemed to be headed toward a major depression. This was in February 2009 when Barron’s had a conversation with Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio. For his part, Dalio saw the episode as part of a necessary restructuring process. He called it the D-Process. The

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Rosenberg on the cause of the next secular uptrend in inflation or hyperinflationary shock

Edward Harrison — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 18:00:44 +0000

David Rosenberg is bullish on bonds. And the reasoning for his bullishness has a lot to do with the deleveraging and excess capacity which the bursting of the credit bubble has brought into view. In this sense, his views on inflation are actually rather similar to modern monetary theory advocates. In his daily letter to

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Ray Dalio: Inflation is not just around the corner… yet

Edward Harrison — Sat, 29 May 2010 13:06:38 +0000

With governments printing money, inflation, now propping up asset prices, will eventually come to consumer prices. First the deflation, then the inflation, I say. Ray Dalio agrees. But, he also has some choice things to say about the situation in Europe

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Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio on Gold, Bonds, and Money Printing

Edward Harrison — Tue, 18 May 2010 23:26:09 +0000

Below is an excerpt of a Barron’s interview with Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio which I first highlighted in February 2009 in A conversation with Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio. Back then I highlighted the first part which concentrated on the private sector debt problem. Today, I want to highlight the last part which talks about sovereign

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Why The World Is Headed For A Balance Sheet Recession

Edward Harrison — Thu, 15 Apr 2010 01:35:45 +0000

In my post Koo, White, Soros and Akerloff videos from inaugural INET conference I highlighted four speeches from the recent George Soros-sponsored pow-wow. I have already written up a post based on the one by William White in "The origins of the next crisis." This post serves to give you some colour on another of

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Bringing back the Scylla and Charybdis flation meme

Edward Harrison — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 20:00:41 +0000

In June of last year, I wrote a post called "Central banks will face a Scylla and Charybdis flation challenge for years." The crux of the piece was that we are living in a world in which debt deflation is always one downturn away, but in which massive amounts of stimulus and liquidity are driving

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The Age of Deleveraging

Edward Harrison — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 15:38:12 +0000

John Mauldin’s latest is about deleveraging and how this secular trend will drive the macro picture in 2010. The question is why? Read and find out. Also see A conversation with Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio for another good commentary on this topic. John Mauldin, Best-Selling author and recognized financial expert, is also editor of the

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The recession is over but the depression has just begun

Edward Harrison — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 17:49:18 +0000

For the last few months I have been casting around looking for bullish data points as counterfactuals to my more bearish long-term outlook. I have found some, but not enough. If you recall, early this year, I stated that we are in depression, making the case for the ongoing downturn as a depression with a

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Central banks will face a Scylla and Charybdis flation challenge for years

Edward Harrison — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 14:00:40 +0000

Nearly a month ago, back on May 5th, I highlighted some testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke before congress in a post labelled, “Bernanke expects recovery later this year". In his testimony, Bernanke used the phrase ‘Scylla and Charybdis’ to describe the Federal Reserve’s policy challenge regarding deflationary and inflationary forces. I would like

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More thoughts on the fake recovery

Edward Harrison — Sat, 23 May 2009 09:21:17 +0000

A recent post I published on both Credit Writedowns and Naked Capitalism, “Both initial claims and continuing claims now pointing to recovery,” has left the impression that I am a wild-eyed bull – for which I have been duly smacked about the head. This is far from the case. A recent post by Nouriel Roubini

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It’s the writedowns, stupid

Edward Harrison — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 18:11:33 +0000

Today, I want to make the case for seeing writedowns as central to this global downturn. To do so, we need to rewind and compare what is going on today with what we have experienced in the past. Drawing on this comparison, I can demonstrate that traditional policy tools are likely to be ineffective today. Moreover, the present course of action will also prove inadequate. Other more aggressive means must be applied in order to ensure a more stable banking system and a path to recovery. Likely remedies will include a reorganization of large swathes of the U.S. banking system.

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Links: 2009-03-18

Edward Harrison — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 11:46:18 +0000

Here are the main links. Others can be found in the news feed (also available via RSS). Enjoy. IMF poised to print billions of dollars in ‘global quantitative easing’ – Telegraph (hat tip Artur. Gold, anyone?) China blocks Coca-Cola bid for Huiyuan – FT.com is this a protectionist move? A (Mostly) Private Capital Assistance Programme

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Links: 2009-01-13 13 Jan 2009
Links: 2009-02-15 15 Feb 2009
Links: 2009-03-08 8 Mar 2009

We are in depression

Edward Harrison — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 20:47:51 +0000

The results of my poll are back and according to readers we are clearly in Depression. A plurality of you voted for depression with a small ‘d,’ edging out those who see Depression with a Big ’D.’ [poll id="2"] I agree with this assessment as I also voted for a depression with a small ‘d.’ Let

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Edward Harrison — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 14:26:54 +0000

Update: 18 Mar 2008. I am reposting this entry from Feb 10th because it is relevant to the need to liquidate insolvent institutions like AIG that are now getting bailouts

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$1.6 trillion: new estimate on writedowns

Edward Harrison — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 01:59:00 +0000

$1.6 trillion! This is the figure that a Bridgewater Associates study has come up with. I caught this article when I was looking for the original German-language version of a story that MarketWatch exposed regarding the Swiss banks' need for more capital. (see MarketWatch here and my analysis here).

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