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John Mauldin’s latest is about deleveraging and how this secular trend will drive the macro picture in 2010. The question is why? Read and find out. Also see A conversation with Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio for another good commentary on this topic.
John Mauldin, Best-Selling author and recognized financial expert, is also editor of the free [...]

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For the last few months I have been casting around looking for bullish data points as counterfactuals to my more bearish long-term outlook. I have found some, but not enough. If you recall, early this year, I stated that we are in depression, making the case for the ongoing downturn as a depression with a [...]

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Nearly a month ago, back on May 5th, I highlighted some testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke before congress in a post labelled, “Bernanke expects recovery later this year“.  In his testimony, Bernanke used the phrase ‘Scylla and Charybdis’ to describe the Federal Reserve’s policy challenge regarding deflationary and inflationary forces.  I would like [...]

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A recent post I published on both Credit Writedowns and Naked Capitalism, “Both initial claims and continuing claims now pointing to recovery,” has left the impression that I am a wild-eyed bull – for which I have been duly smacked about the head.  This is far from the case.  A recent post by Nouriel Roubini [...]

Today, I want to make the case for seeing writedowns as central to this global downturn. To do so, we need to rewind and compare what is going on today with what we have experienced in the past. Drawing on this comparison, I can demonstrate that traditional policy tools are likely to be ineffective today. Moreover, the present course of action will also prove inadequate. Other more aggressive means must be applied in order to ensure a more stable banking system and a path to recovery. Likely remedies will include a reorganization of large swathes of the U.S. banking system.

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Here are the main links. Others can be found in the news feed (also available via RSS).
Enjoy.
IMF poised to print billions of dollars in ‘global quantitative easing’ – Telegraph (hat tip Artur. Gold, anyone?)
China blocks Coca-Cola bid for Huiyuan – FT.com is this a protectionist move?
A (Mostly) Private Capital Assistance Programme (CAP) – Ricardo Caballero
Just [...]

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The results of my poll are back and  according to readers we are clearly in Depression.  A plurality of you voted for depression with a small ‘d,’ edging out those who see Depression with a Big  ’D.’
I agree with this assessment as I also voted for a depression with a small ‘d.’  Let me tell you [...]

Update: 18 Mar 2008. I am reposting this entry from Feb 10th because it is relevant to the need to liquidate insolvent institutions like AIG that are now getting bailouts.

$1.6 trillion! This is the figure that a Bridgewater Associates study has come up with. I caught this article when I was looking for the original German-language version of a story that MarketWatch exposed regarding the Swiss banks’ need for more capital. (see MarketWatch here and my analysis here).