Despite the plethora of data that has come out recently, one thing that has occasioned very little comment is the outlook for US exports. Exports are generally not a big factor in the subset of companies involved in the ISM survey, but the plunge in export orders to 34.5 suggests that US exports, hitherto a support in an otherwise collapsing economy, could be in big trouble as well.

My very first post on this blog was in March and it was titled “The Economy Is Definitely In Recession.” Back then, this seemed like a stretch for a lot of people, but today the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which makes the official recession call for the U.S., determined that the recession began in December 2007.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its monthly report on Manufacturing, the ISM Manufacturing Report on Business®. It showed a reading of 36.2 down from 38.9. Where 50 is the demarcation line between growth and recession, 36.2 says the manufacturing industry in the United States is deep into recession territory.

If you were not convinced about the severity of the present recession in the United States before, then the ISM Manufacturing index data for October will serve as a wake-up call. The index plunged to the deep recessionary level of 38.9 where 50 is seen as the level separating expansion from recession. Just [...]

The U.S. industrial production numbers for September came out at 9:15ET this morning and they were very weak. However, it should be noted that the numbers were very distorted by lost production due to two hurricanes. Nevertheless, industrial production data — along with recently released jobless claims and retail sales numbers — represent [...]

Yesterday, I laid out some of my general thinking on the business cycle and the economy. Obviously, understanding the business cycle is important to economic forecasting and is, therefore, central to personal financial planning, general investing and business planning.
Over the next few weeks, I will chart out a panoply of data sets for the [...]

Now that policy makers worldwide have finally stepped in to stop the bleeding, we have had a relief rally of monumental proportions. Most global indices were deep into oversold territory, meaning that there was lots of pent-up demand for a turn to the upside. A big rally to the upside was baked into [...]

The numbers on auto sales were unbelievably bad for September — Ford down 34%. Honda down 24%, Toyota down 32%, Nissan down 37%. Amazingly, G.M. was at the head of the pack with sales down only 16 percent. (I guess those Escalade Hybrids are selling like hot cakes).
Blame this one on the credit crunch [...]

The ISM Manufacturing survey, a widely-followed gauge of manufacturing activity in the United States, plunged in September from a near-recession reading of 49.9 in August to the deep recessionary level of 43.5. This shockingly steep fall is yet another sign that the U.S. is in recession.Last Thursday a foreshadowing of the ISM survey came [...]

Economists had expected the durable goods report for August 2008 to be weak, but the report showing durable goods orders down 4.5% was much weaker than expected.
While I do believe that the United States is in recession and the durable goods report is considered a key indicator of future manufacturing activity, I do not put [...]