The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is out with a widely followed Business Outlook Survey for June.  The numbers are very good.
Declines in the region’s manufacturing sector were much less in evidence in June, according to results for this month’s Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments showed notable improvement, suggesting [...]

With more and more major economists predicting recovery sometime later this year, many have forgotten that downside risks remain.  Berner, Roubini, Volcker, Krugman and Bernanke have all come out essentially saying they would not be surprised to see a ‘technical’ recovery at some point later this year.  Robert Gordon has gone as far as to [...]

The Institute for Supply Management released its monthly manufacturing index.  The data shows that the manufacturing sector is still contracting with the headline number rising to 42.8 in May, up from 40.1 in April. This number was ahead of analyst expectations of 42 flat.  50 represents the dividing line between a contracting manufacturing sector and [...]

Last month I noted that the ISM Manufacturing index indicated that the manufacturing sector was still contracting, albeit at a slower pace.  The latest data from the month of April show the same phenomenon.  likely, the index has already hit bottom.
Here’s what the Institute for Supply Management says in its release:

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

“International [...]

The March 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report on Business is out.  The widely-followed figure of 36.3 for the purchasing manager’s index (PMI) shows a manufacturing sector contracting quickly, albeit at a slower pace.  Last month, the PMI was 35.8 and it was 35.6 in January.  So this marks the second consecutive month of gain in the [...]

Back in February I posted an article called “The bullish argument for the global economy” highlighting Goldman Sachs’ Chief Economist Jim O’Neill’s bullish view for the economy. O’Neill believed in February that a economic rebound was certainly possible due to fiscal and monetary stimulus. Paul Kasriel has made similar arguments.

While I do agree that fiscal and monetary stimulus have been great and may induce a cyclical rebound, I wanted to point out that he mentioned the Philly Fed Survey and the ISM surveys as potential leading indicators of recovery.

The ISM Manufacturing Survey came out. The PMI index was 35.6, up from 32.4 in December. It was bad (50 is the tipping point between recession and growth), but it’s not all bad. There were two industries with growth: textiles and petroleum. Moreover, the declines in new orders, productions, backlogs, etc. were not accelerating the way they were last month. Perhaps a bottom is forming here – especially on pricing.

Peter Schiff is that market wizard people were laughing at just a year ago because of his extreme views. Well, things have turned out much as he has indicated they would. So, now he has a captive audience. And what is he saying? Government is a burden that we need less of. The way forward is not government stimulus but less government, less consumption and higher savings.

Well Peter, I have news for you: that game plan of yours is a recipe for deflation, depression, civil unrest and financial Armageddon. You see, Schiff is an ideologue from the small government, free markets crowd. While I agree with his broader themes about less consumption and more savings, I do not see eye-to-eye with his ideology. What America needs now is a practical solution to a real problem, not ideology from the small government crowd.

The Institute for Supply Management released its monthly manufacturing survey for the Unite States today. The data show a fall from 36.2 to 32.4 where 50 represents the divide between recession and expansion. The 32.4 figure represented the lowest figure in 28 years, while new orders were at their lowest since 1948, suggesting that future demand for manufactured products will be extremely weak.

The punderati has been especially kind to China. As the global recession takes hold, the conventional wisdom has moved from the largely debunked de-coupling of China to a story where China slows, but much less so than the west. But is that really how things will play out?