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Norway dumps Irish and Portuguese bonds, Switzerland increases Sterling reserves

Marc Chandler — Fri, 04 May 2012 13:34:09 +0000

The Swiss National Bank reported its reserve figures yesterday and the increase in its sterling holdings are notable and may help explain the its relative strength, despite data a soft real sector reports, culminating in the news last week that, defying expectations, the UK economy contracted in Q1, the second consecutive quarter that the British economy shrank. Separately, Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the Government Pension Fund Global, indicated it has sold off its Irish and Portuguese bond holdings, pared its Spanish and Italian holdings and increased its exposure to Mexico, Brazil and Indian bonds

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(Premium] There will be more defaults in the eurozone

Edward Harrison — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 18:54:22 +0000

In last week's weekly newsletter, I explained why Spain was in big trouble. Today I want to present the full context euro zone-wide and why there will be more sovereign defaults to come in the euro zone. This will be a very comprehensive must read post for anyone interested in the euro zone

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Time Unlikely To Be A Healer For Portugal’s Economy

Claus Vistesen — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 14:17:31 +0000

Despite comparisons with Greece, Portugal is not in entirely the same situation, at least not yet it isn't. Crucially, Portugal is currently under no obligation to deal with international or national creditors to increasing government debt issuance courtesy of joint aid programme administered by the EU and the IMF. So far so good. Portugal has time and while I am as certain as an economist can be that the country will need debt restructuring, the time between here and there may still prove crucial

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Full text: Moody’s takes actions on seven Portuguese banks; Outlook negative

Edward Harrison — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 02:27:41 +0000

The following is the text of a ratings action on Portuguese banks initiated today

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Five Overlooked Euro Zone Developments

Marc Chandler — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 18:00:36 +0000

There are several developments that warn of future problems in the euro zone and these make us suspicious about the euro's ability to sustain the upside break

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Disappointment in Core, but Some Positive News in Periphery

Marc Chandler — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 14:28:00 +0000

The shockingly weak euro zone flash PMI, especially the sub-50 reading for German manufacturing, is the main focus today. New orders have been weak and the Bloomberg consensus does expect the euro zone economy to contract not only in Q1 but in Q2 and Q3 as well. Many participants seem to have confused the dramatic equity market rally in Q1 and reduced tail risks with economic strength

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Portugal Gradually Shuffles Its Way Up Towards The Front Of The Debt Queue

Edward Hugh — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 00:30:57 +0000

Naturally austerity isn’t popular, and evidently it doesn’t work as intended, but then this was already known before we started on this course, so it isn’t really a surprise. But what alternative do the Euro Area’s imprisoned periphery have, since if they leave the currency and default on their debts they will be in a real mess, and if they stay they are in a real mess too

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[Premium] Daily Commentary: Eyes will now turn to Spain and Portugal

Edward Harrison — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 18:14:52 +0000

This is a bronze level post. These are the links with my daily commentary for 9 Mar 2012 on the Greek PSI deal and the renewed urgency this makes for Spain and Portugal

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Why Portugal

Marc Chandler — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 19:52:16 +0000

Portugal's aid package assumes it can return to the capital markets in the second half of last year. This seems less likely with each passing day

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What Went Wrong in Portugal?

Edward Harrison — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 18:30:43 +0000

The country's economy will now shrink because European policy makers fail to understand the dynamics of debt deflation

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