Post Tagged with: "Politics"
[Premium] Euro zone policy may turn to relax 3/60 hurdle and to EuroTARP
The mood has turned against austerity in the euro zone because it is now rightly seen as anti-growth. The question is what next. Here I will hazard a few predictions of where euro zone policy is headed including a Euro
European Growth Pact Begins to Take Shape
The agenda in the euro zone is changing. The likely outcome of the weekend elections in Greece and France are just as much an effect as a cause of the shift in the agenda. For the first time since the crisis began, the German insistence on austerity is being complimented by the push for a growth pact
Euro Zone News Stream Remains Negative
The string of developments has encouraged risk-off behavior. Equity markets are lower. Core bonds are higher. The high beta currencies, such as the freely traded emerging market currencies, the Australian and Canadian dollars, the euro, Swedish krona, and of course, the euro itself, are under strong pressure. The US dollar and Japanese yen are the main beneficiaries
Dutch Government Collapses
Seven weeks of government negotiations in the Netherlands to agree on new austerity measures failed on Saturday suggesting the German-led program for Europe is about to take head of another government and this is on the eve of the first round of the French elections, where polls consistently show the Socialist candidate Hollande poised to win the decisive second round in early May
On the Importance of the French Elections
The French premium over Germany rose today to a three-month high. Rumors of a rating downgrade proved wide of the mark, but it reflects the market’s anxiety about the outlook for France going forward
Seven Observations about the Yen
The yen was the weakest of the major currencies in Q1, losing about 7.2% against the dollar. There was a clear shift in both speculative and portfolio flows. This is just one of seven observations about the Yen via Marc Chandler
Greece: the risk of another near-term default has increased
One Greek outstanding bond is a 450 mln euro FRN that is due May 15. It has a 30-day grace period to make the payment, according to press reports. The new Greek 10-year bond yield rose today to 20.55%. It is the fifth consecutive session that yields have risen and are at new highs since the new bonds were issued in early March. In the past five sessions, the yield has risen 50 bp. The German 10-year yields has fallen 16 bp. The spread stands at 1824 bp, widening by 66 bp or 3% over this period
The Economist sees (and raises)
The Free Exchange blog at The Economist has accepted my bet, and very cleverly (the bastards!) they have added a second one. For two years I have been arguing that a Chinese rebalancing will require much slower GDP growth rates than we currently think possible and, working backwards from annual consumption growth rates of 7-8%, I have argued that this implies that China’s real GDP growth rate will average not much more than 3% annually over the rest of the decade. So here are the two bets, both on China
China Politics: Reflections from a One Party State
Perhaps because they call themselves Communists, many observers, think the party is homogeneous, but it is not. There are forces of movement and forces of order. A FT columnist recently wrote about the possible threat to the post-Mao consensus. That consensus was not so much on substance as process
[Premium] Daily Commentary: Highest US March Gas Prices on Record
This daily commentary is a bronze level members-only post. I wonder how the oil issue is going to play out in this particular election since everyone seems to be talking about how high the price of gasoline/petrol is. In the US, we are seeing record numbers. here are some thoughts on the issue plus the links
On Spain, Spanish banks and Spanish local elections
The LTROs may have helped ease this year’s roll-over risk (Spain has met almost 50% of this year’s refinancing needs). But they have not substantially altered the market’s views of the risks of an eventual restructuring
Daily Commentary: On the Dutch leaving the euro zone
This will be a bronze level post. Everyone is talking about the Dutch Freedom Party these days. Geert Wilders, the head of the Freedom Party, is a bit like Marine Le Pen in terms of his appeal: anti-immigrant, nationalist and right wing. He says the Netherlands should leave the euro zone. Here’s what I think of the media circus surrounding this