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A few brief comments on America’s fiscal choices

Edward Harrison — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 19:00:14 +0000

The private sector (particularly the household sector) is overly indebted. The level of debt households now carry cannot be supported by income at the present levels of consumption. The natural tendency, therefore, is toward more saving and less spending in the private sector (although asset price appreciation can attenuate this through the Wealth Effect). That

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The Seven Immutable Laws of Investing

Guest Author — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 12:30:00 +0000

In my previous missive I concluded that investors should stay true to the principles that have always guided (and should always guide) sensible investment, but I left readers hanging as to what I believe those principles might actually be. So, now, for the moment of truth, I present a set of principles that together form what I call The Seven Immutable Laws of Investing. They are as follows: Always insist on a margin of safety This time is never different Be patient and wait for the fat pitch Be contrarian Risk is the permanent loss of capital, never a number Be leery of leverage Never invest in something you don’t understand

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How to Look for a Job

Frederick Sheehan — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 13:30:57 +0000

Frederick Sheehan is the author of Panderer to Power: The Untold Story of How Alan Greenspan Enriched Wall Street and Left a Legacy of Recession (McGraw-Hill, 2009). Unemployment is stuck in a rut. One reason is the tendency to look backwards. Trillions of dollars have been spent (with no end in sight) to bail out

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ECRI Weekly Index falls to a 56-week low of -6.9

Edward Harrison — Fri, 25 Jun 2010 15:37:17 +0000

This comes via the ECRI website: A measure of future U.S.economic growth rose slightly in the latest week, but its annualized growth rate continued to fall, indicating the economy is about to slow, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose

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Hussman: Cliffhanger

Guest Author — Mon, 21 Jun 2010 19:14:10 +0000

The following is an excerpt from John Hussman’s latest Weekly Market Commentary. I noted last week that we are closing in on a syndrome of indications that has always and only appeared during or immediately prior to recessions. At present, however, we still do not have that evidence in hand. A recession forecast would be

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Meredith Whitney Comments on Housing Double Dip

Edward Harrison — Mon, 21 Jun 2010 14:54:32 +0000

Meredith Whitney was a guest host on CNBC at 8AM ET talking about an anticipated housing double dip. The videos are below. A few comments first. Whitney was late to the recovery party in 2009 in my view. But I found the recent Rip Van Whitney piece by banking insider Thomas Brown a bit patronizing.

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Federal largesse was countered by state and local cutbacks

Edward Harrison — Sat, 19 Jun 2010 12:15:24 +0000

In looking back on the efficacy of stimulus in the United States, Ezra Klein has a few thoughts in the Washington Post’s "You’ve seen the stimulus. Now, meet the anti-stimulus." A multiple choice question for you: Did the stimulus a) work; b) fail; c) end up locked in an unexpected battle with the massive anti-stimulus

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index falls further into negative territory

Edward Harrison — Fri, 18 Jun 2010 15:32:47 +0000

Growth in the ECRI weekly leading index fell further into negative territory. The growth rate for the week of June 11 weakened to -5.7%, down from -3.7% in the previous week, which had been the first negative reading in almost a year. "Despite the WLI’s rapid drop over the last six weeks, its downturn has

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David Rosenberg on the Economy

Edward Harrison — Mon, 14 Jun 2010 14:16:50 +0000

David Rosenberg is out with a good post that takes on the double dip theme that everyone is talking about. As you would expect, he has a bearish spin. To the degree you want counterfactuals, I really like what Morgan Stanley has to say in their research piece "Just Say No to the Double-Dip." The

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If the data are so good, why is everyone screaming double-dip?

Edward Harrison — Mon, 14 Jun 2010 01:51:22 +0000

This week’s review post is a bit late since I have been spending all my time watching the World Cup. Like last week, I will put the review in narrative form with links to last week’s posts embedded. The numbers were OK but… I think the last week’s data were pretty good. I know I’m

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ECRI Leading Indicators Levels Now Flashing Red

Edward Harrison — Fri, 11 Jun 2010 18:02:03 +0000

We have been watching the change in the ECRI Leading indicators as a predictor of economic activity. I have posted a few times on this, first in April, then again last month. All along the way, it has been the rate of change in the ECRI’s weekly leading indicators, not the change of the index.

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Achuthan: Leading Indicators Point To Slowing Growth; Jobs Outlook Murky

Edward Harrison — Sat, 05 Jun 2010 18:36:55 +0000

Lakshman Achuthan is a Managing Director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute. ECRI studies recessions and recoveries, forecasting economic and inflation cycle turns for all major market economies using a rigorous and objective methodology. They correctly forecasted this recession and recovery. Recently, their Leading Economic Index has been hitting recovery lows, something that both Albert

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Montier: Was It All Just A Bad Dream? Or, Ten Lessons Not Learnt

Edward Harrison — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 09:34:27 +0000

James Montier, a member of fund manager GMO’s Asset Allocation Team, examined whether we learned anything from the market declines of 2008 and early 2009. His answer is, as you would expect, not a lot. Below, is an outline of the ten lessons not learned followed by a link to the full paper. It’s a

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European Currencies to Suffer Disproportionately vs. US Dollar

Marc Chandler — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 16:01:05 +0000

The following is a post by Marc Chandler, head of Brown Brother Harriman’s Currency Strategy Team. For more of BBH’s currency views, visit the website here. At our website, please find our Weekly FXView, a one page table of driving forces and capital market trends for the major currencies in the week ahead. We still

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Links: 2010-02-25 – inflating, Buffet myths, Buiter’s predictions and more

Edward Harrison — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 15:03:34 +0000

The Pragmatic Capitalist – The Many Myths of Warren Buffett Morgan Stanley – Global Economic Forum – Default or Inflate or… Time to Press China on Its Exchange Rate – Economix Blog – NYTimes.com FT Alphaville – Neil Hume – Buiter’s back S&P May Downgrade Greece Within Month on Budget Risks – Bloomberg.com Obama may

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America’s Incredible Consumer Confidence Index

Edward Harrison — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 20:03:58 +0000

In his latest post, Edward Hugh marvels at the Spanish population’s optimism that the economy will soon turn. While they correctly judge the current situation as abysmal, for whatever reason, the Spanish believe things will turn up shortly. More power to them. But the Spanish aren’t the only true believers. Witness America’s own consumer confidence

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Spain’s Incredible Consumer Confidence Index

Edward Hugh — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 19:52:15 +0000

This post was originally published at A Fistful of Euros. According to Spain’s Instituto de Crédito Oficial (ICO) the ICC-ICO (consumer confidence index) went up in January by 6.1 points from its December value and is now at its highest level since August 2009. This confidence improvement is largely due to a significant rise in

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Byron Wien: Ten Surprises for 2007 and 2008

Edward Harrison — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 13:02:38 +0000

Given the fact that I have just finished writing two articles on Wien’s predictions for 2010, I thought it relevant to look back at the last three years of Wien’s surprises to just before the housing crisis. I posted the 2009 predictions last year. The post is here. Wien calls these events that he gives

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More on Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2010

Edward Harrison — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 21:35:44 +0000

Byron Wien was amazingly accurate last year in his economic predictions even though his annual list is an attempt to build a non-consensus list of likely outlier events. So, I was eager to see Byron Wien’s 2010 surprises, which were unveiled earlier today. Please read his list in the previous link as background. Reviewing 2009

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Byron Wien: Ten Surprises for 2010

Edward Harrison — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 19:39:50 +0000

I will have some commentary on this in a future post or an updated version of this one. Update 1600 ET: you can see my commentary in the next post here. The Surprises of 2010 The United States economy grows at a stronger than expected 5% real rate during the year and the unemployment level

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Think outside the box: ten outrageous predictions for 2010

Edward Harrison — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 20:06:29 +0000

Just like last year, I am going to present the list of ten outrageous predictions from Denmark’s Saxo Bank. When I presented the list in 2008, I gave the following disclaimer: Their list is outlandish — and I’ll get to it in a moment. But, first, I want to say these predictions serve a very

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Richard Bernstein: Ten predictions for 2010

Edward Harrison — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 02:09:04 +0000

So, it’s that time of year again when people make their year-end predictions. I’ll be running my own and critiquing my performance from last year. Here are former bear now bull Richard Bernstein’s ten predictions for 2010. There is a clip at the bottom from CNBC as well. Before you pillory Bernstein for going from

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UBS: ‘The disaster in Spain will continue’

Edward Harrison — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 06:25:56 +0000

This is a translation of a Spanish-language article from Finanzas. For UBS, there is no debate about the economy’s green shoots despite the improvement in employment and the slowest fall in consumption and industrial production. In a harsh report on Spain, the Swiss bank says that the worst is yet to come, and that unemployment

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David Tice: All bearish, all the time

Edward Harrison — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 23:38:21 +0000

I love this guy. If you are looking for a guy who is super bearish on the U.S., then David Tice is your man. He sees unemployment at 15%, stocks well down from present levels and a serious Depression with a Capital-D in the offing. In short, he’s talking about a financial and economic catastrophe.

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Readers of this blog expect the recession to last

Edward Harrison — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 02:08:08 +0000

A recent poll which ended on Wednesday as to when the economy will recover yielded the results below: [poll id="9"] Clearly, you think this downturn has legs! Please feel free to ping us with other important questions we should be asking readers. Cheers. Edward Related Posts Macro Maven: Expect a long difficult recession 13 Dec

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Wells profit forecast is a clear bullish sign

Edward Harrison — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 15:46:17 +0000

I am still away on Holiday in Mexico but have been checking the news and was not surprised to learn about the recent Wells Fargo announcement. I am coming off the fence here and looking for a bullish outcome on financial services. The bank said profit will be $3bn in the first quarter, thanks to

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Think outside the box: ten outrageous predictions for 2009

Edward Harrison — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 18:27:10 +0000

Update: 3 Apr 2009: I have been getting more positive about the possibility of a cyclical upturn before 2009 is over (what I like to call a fake recovery). Meanwhile, the punderati are seeing black when they should be seeing shades of grey. As a result, I wanted to re-post this article as a reminder to all of you and to myself of the perils of becoming wedded to a certain ideological bias.

Also see the following article on the site Overcoming Bias.

Here's the original post:

For a long time Byron Wien of Morgan Stanley used to have his "Ten Surprises for" whatever year we were about to enter. The predictions were sometimes head-scratchers and they were definitely 'out there.' Most of the time, these predictions ended up being wrong. Now, Saxobank has taken over from Morgan Stanley in this department. Their list is outlandish -- and I'll get to it in a moment. But, first, I want to say these predictions serve a very useful purpose. It's called thinking outside the box

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Will Goldman’s Jim O’Neill change his bullish outlook?

Edward Harrison — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 18:17:36 +0000

Back in February I posted an article called "The bullish argument for the global economy" highlighting Goldman Sachs' Chief Economist Jim O'Neill's bullish view for the economy. O'Neill believed in February that a economic rebound was certainly possible due to fiscal and monetary stimulus. Paul Kasriel has made similar arguments. While I do agree that fiscal and monetary stimulus have been great and may induce a cyclical rebound, I wanted to point out that he mentioned the Philly Fed Survey and the ISM surveys as potential leading indicators of recovery

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What is the recent increase in U.S. jobless claims telling us?

Edward Harrison — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 16:27:33 +0000

The jobs picture is looking grim. Jobless claims for the week ending 14 Feb 2009 were 627,000, pushing the average to 619,000. Additionally, nearly 5 million people are staying on the unemployment roles, the highest figure ever. But, it should be a given that jobless claims have increased in this cycle — the U.S. population

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Three views of the global economy

Edward Harrison — Sun, 15 Feb 2009 15:43:03 +0000

Today's Globe & Mail does an excellent job of presenting the three different potential outcomes for the global economy, one optimistic, one pessimistic and a third somewhere in between. Below are the key snippets of their article reflecting each of the three outcomes. However, I highly recommend reading the full article which is linked below

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GE Capital’s looming time bomb

Edward Harrison — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 18:53:57 +0000

I do not think General Electric is AAA company -- far from it. Their finance arm GE Capital is at the center of the private equity and asset-backed security time bombs that have yet to explode. And this makes the cash flow expected from GE Capital vulnerable because they are under-reserving. Translation: their financial results are artificially goosed by not reserving for likely losses. In previous posts I have argued that GE must cut its dividend and that it will lose its AAA credit rating, despite an investment by Warren Buffett. The following video which focuses on the under-reserving at General Electric demonstrates why

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MagnetBank failure as a canary in the coalmine

Edward Harrison — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 12:53:59 +0000

In 2008, the FDIC successfully shut down 25 banks. This year it has already been six. To date, the FDIC had generally been able to find a buyer of one of the failed banks' deposits. After all, outside of IndyMac, the large majority of the failed banks had assets under $1 billion. However, the FDIC failed to find a bank to take over the assets of MagnetBank, one of three FDIC seizures this past Friday

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Disappearance of capital sources is true cause of Lehman failure and AIG rescue 19 Sep 2008

Jim O’Neill on the Global Economy

Edward Harrison — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 21:06:33 +0000

The Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs sat down with the FT's David Oakley and had a go on a number of topics from the financial crisis, investments in Emerging Markets, the future of the Bric (Brazil, Russia, India and China) economies, to the global economy. Below are links to the three-part video series on the FT website. I think the videos are well worth watching. Enjoy

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Byron Wien: Ten Surprises for 2009

Edward Harrison — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 21:00:00 +0000

As the New Year unfolds, it is time for predictions. I have done my part, giving a full account of where I see things headed in 2009 in my post "Top ten predictions for the 2009 global economy" and where I want to see them headed in 2009 in my post "Top ten economic wishes for 2009." I have also mentioned Byron Wien in passing several times because he has done this sort of thing ever year for the past 24 years, first at Morgan Stanley at now at Pequot Capital. Well, his list for 2009 is now out and I want to show it to you - along with my usual commentary (in parenthesis) of course! Enjoy

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Top ten predictions for the 2009 global economy

Edward Harrison — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 16:00:42 +0000

In my most recent post, I gave a fairly comprehensive retrospective of the year that was. Near the end of that post, I listed a number of posts I wrote in Octobr and November which point to how I see 2009 shaping up. Let me give you a more direct assessment here. I will finish it off with my top ten predictions for

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Related Posts

Where is the global economy headed? 11 Oct 2008
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Global instability must be contained in 2009 27 Dec 2008