Post Tagged with: "oil"
Protracted Oil Spike Possible As Libya Burns
Hugo Chavez as peacemaker? Color us skeptical. Chavez is hardly an impartial third party in this conflict, as he has cozied up to Qaddafi over the years. As such, we would not expect opposition forces to be very open to any sort of Chavez intervention. Media is reporting that the Libyan government has accepted Venezuela’s offer to mediate, but which government? Given the civil war now under way, Libya no longer speaks with one voice, as underscored by the countless defections by Libyan diplomatic officials and military to the opposition. Rather, it seems some sort of multilateral solution will be needed via the UN or perhaps the Arab League. A no-fly zone over Libya is being contemplated in order to prevent bombing of civilians and opposition forces, but international opinion over this option is divided. China and Russia (members of UN Security Council) have expressed opposition to the no fly zone, as has Turkey (member of NATO)
The Libyan Crisis: Where Are Oil Prices Going?
By Marin Katusa, Casey’s Energy Report The oil picture is always complex, but right now things are about as complicated as they can get. The unrest in Egypt has settled for the moment, but the future there is not yet clear as the military takes control on promises of free elections. Tensions are rising in
Will Oil Prices Derail The Economy?
Oil prices are on the march higher again today. Brent is trading above $115 a barrel. While WTI is now above $100. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke does not believe the recent rise in oil prices will cause the U.S. recovery to buckle and fold. While the rise in prices has contributed to the rise
From Dublin to Tripoli
The Absolute Return Letter, March 2011 By Niels Jensen “Experience is the name everyone gives to their mistakes” Oscar Wilde A remarkable month Two remarkable events unfolded during the month of February. One cleared the front pages all over the world. The other one barely got a mention – outside of its home country that
The Big Interview with Daniel Yergin
Daniel Yergin is the author of the Pulitzer-Prize winning book ‘The Prize‘, a stellar run through of the oil industry that is on Credit Writedowns’ recommended reading list. Below is a twenty-minute interview of Yergin by the Wall Street Journal’s David Wessel. Yergin discusses the recent uprisings in the Middle East and what they mean
Rosenberg bullish on energy stocks, cautious on growth due to oil shock
Earlier in the week, David Rosenberg wrote that he is bullish on energy stocks due to the exogenous shock that tensions in the Middle East are creating in the energy complex. However, this is not a bullish story for overall U.S. growth or for business profit margins. In the Bloomberg video below Rosenberg tells Margaret
More Food for Thought
Bill Fleckenstein was back talking to Dylan Ratigan about the source of rising oil prices. (See the last Fleckenstein video here). Clearly, supply constraints and increased demand in emerging markets play the central role in creating a supply demand imbalance for a commodity where demand is price inelastic. I am not just talking about natural
Saudi Arabia Tries To Calm Oil Markets
We note that uncertainty regarding potential oil supply disruptions is in a sense higher now than it was during the first and second Gulf Wars. Then, it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that Saddam would be defeated and oil facilities eventually repaired and output restored. Now, markets are unsure how long and how wide potential output disruptions will spread. Will Iran and Saudi Arabia be swept up in the contagion? How long will it take Libya, Egypt, and others to find political stability in the absence of the old leaders? These and other questions are much more open-ended, and are likely to keep a significant risk premium on oil prices for much of 2011. While EM currencies have stage a nice rebound today, oil prices remain elevated and we believe EM remains vulnerable to further bouts of selling. Eventually, EM should decouple but we think that it’s too early to sound the “all clear” signal yet.
Africa’s declining energy exports
This note from UBS’ Andy Lees this morning points to peak oil/peak resources as a consideration in the ongoing troubles in the Middle East. Andy writes: Just a few quick figures on African oil production. Libyan production, according to the BP world statistics peaked in recent years (subsequent to its 1970′s peak) at 1.82m bpd
Some Thoughts On Libya’s Likely Market Impact
By Win Thin The Libyan situation continues to deteriorate, with the expected impact on oil (up) and EM (down) being seen today. Libyan leader Qaddafi is hanging on to power despite reported defections by diplomats and soldiers, while his son threatened “rivers of blood.” So far, the Libyan response to the protests has been much
Peak Oil, the Saudis and the Middle East protests
One serious addendum I made to my 2011 outlook had to do with oil and commodity prices. While I am cautiously optimistic, there are a number of potential pitfalls to a rosy scenario. Here’s what I said about oil and commodities: Commodity price Inflation: There is a real threat to recovery from commodity price inflation.
Saudi Concerns About High Oil Prices Signals Potential OPEC Move
by Win Thin Saudi Oil Minister Al-Naimi said that crude oil prices between $70-80 per barrel are “appropriate.” OPEC Secretary-General el-Badri said his group would add oil output in the event of any supply disruptions, pledging action if supply were to be reduced by 1 mln bbl/day or more. Note that OPEC last changed its