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Grokking the Canadian Dollar in Three Correlations

Marc Chandler — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 15:00:28 +0000

The brief study presented here shows that over the past 60 days, the Canadian dollar has been more correlated with the S&P 500 than most currencies we looked at, and is also highly correlated with the euro, though in line with most of the other major currencies. It correlation with crude oil is considerably weaker than with the S&P 500 or the euro, but is also in line with most of the other currencies we looked at

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Chart of the Day: U.S. Gasoline Consumption Tanks in 2011

Global Macro Monitor — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 21:00:00 +0000

A chart of gasoline consumption and oil prices for the years 2000-

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Chart of the Day: U.S. Real Earnings through November 2011 22 Dec 2011
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India: Land of Energy Opportunity

Casey Research — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 21:30:15 +0000

Quick, what country is the economic engine that will power world growth? If you answered "China," you're far from alone. But there's another country that deserves as much attention and better yet, is much friendlier to investment: India, home to 1.2 billion people. To electrify all those houses, power the industries that keep all those people employed, and fuel the vehicles that more and more Indians own, India's energy needs are shooting skyward

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Protecting wealth in a world of recurring crisis

Edward Harrison — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 16:30:10 +0000

Happy Wednesday. I know the news is 'less good' today than it was when I last wrote you but writing these weeklies always puts me in a more positive frame of mind. Nevertheless, today's topic is about downside risk. My hope is to frame the economic scenario globally and then to offer some strategies of mitigating what I believe is significant downside investment risk

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Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2012

Edward Harrison — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 13:45:35 +0000

As always, I present you Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2011. He is bullish yet again - on both the US and emerging markets

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A Battle for Oil Production Is Brewing

Casey Research — Sat, 12 Nov 2011 16:45:18 +0000

With big oil's bank accounts full to the brim with cash, the stage is set for some significant acquisition activity... or, to put it another way, for a battle to buy producing assets. There are quite a number of contestants in the battle - big oil companies are not only competing against each other to sweep up good assets but also against the national oil companies of developing, energy-hungry nations like China, South Korea, and India. Oil demands are rising in these nations so quickly that just to cover expected annual demand increases those three countries would have to jointly spend $30 billion on acquisitions each year

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Chart of the day: Hours of Work Needed to Buy a Barrel of Oil

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 14:51:56 +0000

Another awesome piece of work from our friends over at The Chart Store. The chart below is a times series of the numbers of hours of work — based on the average hourly wage — needed to buy a barrel of crude oil. Given the current wage of $19.53 in October it now takes 4.7 hours of work to purchase a barrel of crude. Add another couple of hours when Iran heats up

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Is Iran About to Get Hot?

Global Macro Monitor — Sun, 06 Nov 2011 14:30:34 +0000

Here is something brewing off radar. We’re wondering if this is a factor as to why crude is bid and gold is coming back

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Chart of the day: ratio of oil futures’ long to short positions

Edward Harrison — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 13:44:32 +0000

This chart by John Kemp of Reuters tells you that speculation played a huge role in the run up in oil prices earlier this year, hugely amplifying the underlying fundamental trend. Hat tip to the FT’s Izabella Kaminska. She is right to say “this chart is WOW!”

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Saudi Arabia: When surging oil demand meets limited supply

Edward Harrison — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 17:21:29 +0000

The following note from Gulf News reinforces the concept that high population growth in the Middle East will slow the amount of oil available for export. I believe the consequences are higher prices

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Russian Currency Outlook Negative Due To Falling Oil Prices

Win Thin — Tue, 04 Oct 2011 23:00:43 +0000

This fiscal uncertainty may be enough to prevent any ratings upgrades ahead, but we do not think the situation will worsen enough to lead to downgrades. Our sovereign rating model has Russia as a very solid BBB+/Baa1/BBB+ credit compared to actual ratings of BBB/Baa1/BBB. The political situation leaves a lot to be desired, with the return of Putin to the presidency next year unlikely to change the status quo. Yes, there is stability, but there is a sense that Russia is basically treading water and relying on high commodity prices rather than making much-needed structural reforms to the economy to boost competitiveness and entrepreneurship

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Falling Oil Prices: A Worrying Trend and Saving Grace

Casey Research — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 23:00:59 +0000

When oil prices start to decline, investors and economists get worried. Oil prices in large part reflect global sentiment towards our economic future - prosperous, growing economies need more oil while slumping, shrinking economies need less, and so the price of crude indicates whether the majority believes we are headed for good times or bad. That explains the worry - those worried investors and economists are using oil prices as an indicator, and falling prices indicate bad times ahead

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Dow Transport Dive to Take Down Crude

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 03 Aug 2011 14:00:00 +0000

The Dow Transportation Index was down almost 4 percent today and if there is any silver lining in the current market turmoil is that Trannies usually lead crude down, which will drop gas prices. The chart below shows the 12.2 percent swan dive in the Dow Transports since July 7th with crude oil barely moving. We’re expecting a catch-up trade to the downside for crude oil in the next few days

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What are the all-in costs of Saudi Production?

Edward Harrison — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 16:45:45 +0000

Here’s an interesting note from UBS’ Andy Lees on the background story to the oil market. You may have heard that US President Obama decided to release some of the oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This move was bearish for oil, sending it way down in trading yesterday. The question then becomes how much of today’s oil price is based on the fundamentals and how much is based on Middle East tensions or speculation

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Five Misconceptions Squashed

Niels Jensen — Fri, 03 Jun 2011 11:00:00 +0000

Niels Jensen clears up a number of common misconceptions about the macroo environment which whave great importance for investing

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The Correlation between Currencies and Oil

Marc Chandler — Thu, 19 May 2011 17:30:00 +0000

The relationship between oil and currencies is no more stable that the relationship between the S&P 500 and currencies. As we noted yesterday in our look at the correlation between a handful of currencies and the S&P 500, it is not that there is no relationship, but rather that the relationship is far from stable. One cannot deduce the correlation from first principles, but investors should monitor the shift sands

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Speculators at risk as IEA confirms demand destruction has set in

Edward Harrison — Thu, 12 May 2011 13:48:33 +0000

A fall in commodity prices increases the potential for financial market disruption and non-performing loan problems in China

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Dollar Selling Resumes

Marc Chandler — Mon, 09 May 2011 11:15:32 +0000

Dollar selling resumes as equities and commodities recover after US employment report Euro moves back near $1.44 after EU officials discussed further aid to Greece Dollar likely to remain on back foot this week; Growth currencies likely to outperform

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The Gulf of Mexico – One Year Later

Casey Research — Wed, 04 May 2011 01:00:00 +0000

A year later, the waters are still murky, but a few things are starting to become clear. For energy investors, the most important aspect of the disaster was the moratorium on deepwater drilling in the Gulf. That ban was lifted in late February, but new safety requirements have slowed restarts on the 33 rigs that were halted, and Washington has so far issued only a handful of new permits for Gulf oil exploration. So what impact does an almost year-long stoppage in drilling have on oil production? On the environment, scientists agree that the chemicals were effective in dispersing the oil. But the most important questions still remain unanswered: what long-term effects will the dispersant chemicals and the dispersed oil have on the Gulf of Mexico ecosystem

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The Case for Human Ingenuity

Niels Jensen — Tue, 03 May 2011 19:50:02 +0000

There are essentially three reasons why I think oil prices will go through a rather dramatic correction over the next several years: 1. Many investors who, in recent years, have added commodities to their portfolios as a hedge will ultimately be disappointed by the lack of diversification this asset class offers; 2. Governments and regulatory authorities, both in Europe and the United States, have effectively declared war on commodity speculators, and the area will become subject to a lot more scrutiny and regulation in the years to come; 3. A number of new alternative energy forms are in much more advanced development than many investors realise and will, over the next 3-5 years, become serious alternatives to oil, particularly as far as transportation is concerned

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Fracking and China’s quest for natural gas

Edward Harrison — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 17:48:37 +0000

You have probably seen the headlines on the natural gas accident in Pennsylvania. Chesapeake Energy, the largest natgas driller reported on Tuesday that one of its wells in Bradford County, Pennsylvania was uncontrollably spilling thousands of gallons of chemical-laced salt water into freshwater streams that ultimately feed into the Chesapeake Bay. Chesapeake Energy was using

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Some Thoughts On The Oil Market And OPEC

Win Thin — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 15:48:16 +0000

By Win Thin Oil prices are lower today despite Saudi comments that it is cutting output because the market is oversupplied. Saudi Oil Minister al-Naimi said that his nation cut output to 8.29 bbl/day in March from 9.13 mln bbl/day in February, and that April output might be “a little higher” than March. Kuwaiti Oil

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Has oil’s demand destruction already arrived?

Edward Harrison — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 12:00:15 +0000

What we would like to see is commodity prices falling or stagnating. And that would certainly be the case if demand destruction is already beginning as the IEA analysis suggests. Moreover, QE is ending in June. So that won't be a factor in inflation expectations. The 'goldilocks' scenario would be moderating commodity prices, followed by moderating global growth, followed by an increase in growth as inflation expectations come down

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A few brief comments on America’s fiscal choices

Edward Harrison — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 19:00:14 +0000

The private sector (particularly the household sector) is overly indebted. The level of debt households now carry cannot be supported by income at the present levels of consumption. The natural tendency, therefore, is toward more saving and less spending in the private sector (although asset price appreciation can attenuate this through the Wealth Effect). That

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On Food Riots, Peak Oil and Military Force

Edward Harrison — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 17:30:05 +0000

Here’s a fabulous look into the political economy of oil by Andy Lees. His view is that the era of cheap oil is over. But, more than that, natural resources as a whole are increasingly dear. And a world of dwindling natural resources has geopolitical implications when supply and demand are finely balanced. Andy writes

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Oil: Where is the spare capacity?

Edward Harrison — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 17:15:12 +0000

This morning’s note from UBS’ Andy Lees addresses something about which I am sceptical regarding the escalating Libyan conflict: global spare oil capacity. I am in the same camp with Jeremy Grantham. Call it peak resources, peak oil, the end of cheap oil, whatever – the fact is there is a finite amount of natural

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Oil Sands: Fueling the Future

Casey Research — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 16:00:29 +0000

By Marin Katusa, Casey Energy Opportunities For many years, trying to tap an oil sands deposit accomplished about as much as sipping molasses through a straw, but that is changing. So do oil sands companies make a good investment now? Humans and bacteria share a surprising number of features, not least in what they consider

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Surely There Is Nothing “Funny” About What Is Going On In Japan?

Edward Hugh — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 02:00:04 +0000

By Edward Hugh As Japanese officials continue to toil away in what we all hope will be a successful bid to avert a worst case nuclear meltdown, even while thousands of Japanese remain missing and unaccounted for, financial market participants across the globe have been struggling to answer one and the same question: just how

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The politics of nuclear now favour existing fossil fuel producers

Edward Harrison — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 17:30:24 +0000

Marc Chandler wrote a good piece on the politics of nuclear in Germany and elsewhere in Europe. I want to piggyback on his comments with some of my own thoughts and questions regarding what this could mean for the energy space. This is a quick shot, so I’ll bullet point this. The circumstances of the

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U.S. is Exporting Inflation

John Lounsbury — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 03:31:07 +0000

Rising agricultural produce prices helped boost U.S. export prices, while oil boosted import prices. Exports were +8.6% and imports +6.9%

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Economic Facts of Life about Global Energy

John Lounsbury — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 03:00:11 +0000

Oil spills, coal mining disasters, concerns over Middle East revolutions and now nuclear meltdowns. What do all these events have in common? As I have written earlier, they are energy-related. They all have to do with desperate efforts to find energy fuels to supply the world’s ever-growing demands. Where is the concern over the horrific civil war now commencing in the Ivory Coast? After all, its population is more than three times larger than Libya’s. Forget it, no oil

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Oil Prices and Rate Hikes Favor Latam FX Over Asia and EMEA

Win Thin — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 18:00:00 +0000

By Win Thin Malaysia central bank surprised the markets by hiking the statutory reserve requirement 100 bp bp while leaving policy rates unchanged at 2.75%. The bank noted that “While the stance of monetary policy is expected to remain supportive of growth, the degree of monetary accommodation may be reviewed given the sustained growth in

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High Oil Prices Unlikely To Go Away Anytime Soon

Win Thin — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 18:00:31 +0000

Oil prices are moving higher today, due largely to news about Libya and OPEC. Algerian Oil Minister said that there was no shortage in the global oil markets and that an emergency OPEC meeting is not needed now. It also appears that optimism over a quick resolution to fighting in Libya was overdone, and that

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Canada and Oil: More Complicated than One Might Suspect

Marc Chandler — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 15:30:07 +0000

We have found that the correlation between oil and the Canadian dollar has collapsed. We conduct the correlation analysis on a 60-day rolling basis, using percent change. The correlation peaked at the end of last year near 0.76. It now stands at -0.1 (see graph from Bloomberg below This is the first time the correlation is inverse since the July-Oct 2007 period. In the 1992-2002 period, the correlation was often inverse, but in recent years this is an exception

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Mexico Central Bank Turns A Bit Hawkish

Win Thin — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 19:30:00 +0000

Mexico central bank kept rates steady at 4.5% today, as expected. However, it tilted a little more to the hawkish side and supports our view that tightening is likely to start in Q4 11 and not Q1 12 as market is pricing in. Central bank noted that the balance of risks for inflation is deteriorating, and noted that higher commodity prices resulting from Mideast turmoil and bad weather may spur inflation this year. The change in tone comes despite CPI inflation easing to 3.6% y/y in mid-February from a peak of 4.4% in December, and back within the 2-4% target range. Core CPI has eased steadily to 3.3% y/y in mid-February from over 4% in early 2010. Instead, the bank appears to be focusing on the output gap, which it said is likely to close by mid-

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Mexico: Central bank to cut today 20 Mar 2009
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