Credit Writedowns » Nouriel Roubini

Roubini: we will see a Greece credit event, regardless of deal

Edward Harrison — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 18:00:59 +0000

Roubini said that the "probability of a recession in the United States is lower than 60 percent right now." On Europe, he said that even if an agreement is reached on Greece, "there are going to be so many holdouts that then they’ll have a problem" and "either way you're going to get a credit event." This is my take as well. In Europe, the concern has to be more Italy and Spain and whether the periphery can meet deficit targets given the poor economic outlook in the euro zone

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Night time Music: Under Pressure

Edward Harrison — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 02:00:12 +0000

I was reading the latest economic forecast by Nouriel Roubini and thought of this song and video. Enjoy

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Roubini: Moving From the Post-Bubble, Post-Bust Economy to Growth

Edward Harrison — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 15:08:21 +0000

Here are the important extracts from a recent paper in terms of the causes of the crisis. I have also embedded the full pdf version, which has suggested policy prescriptions as well

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On State and Local Governments

Edward Harrison — Tue, 04 Oct 2011 18:27:27 +0000

The bottom line is this: Forget about Meredith Whitney. State and municipal governments are carrying a load in operating and pension costs that cannot be sustained through downturns in a secular bear market as the US population ages. These downturns will not be ordinary recessions. They will increase automatic stabiliser spending, decrease tax revenue and crystallise shortfalls in pension programs in a way that is existential for these governments. And that means a spate of defaults will occur

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Roubini: “Greece should default and abandon the euro”

Edward Harrison — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 16:14:57 +0000

In a post mirroring the policy prescription that German economist Hans-Werner Sinn recently gave, Nouriel Roubini advises Greece to default and exit the euro zone. Where Sinn is concerned about German taxpayers paying the bill left for bank creditors, Roubini is concerned about Greek taxpayers and workers also paying that bill

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Nouriel Roubini: “we’re going into a recession”

Edward Harrison — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 21:00:11 +0000

I don’t see anything major to disagree with here. Nouriel makes a lot of sense. Notice he’s pegging recession odds at 60%. That number for him was 30% as recently as a month or two ago

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Roubini: No QE3 announcement at Jackson Hole but QE3 will happen

Edward Harrison — Fri, 26 Aug 2011 02:28:28 +0000

Nouriel Roubini spoke to CNBC today about the Speech that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver tomorrow. Roubini does not expect Bernanke to announce QE3 in this speech. However, he does expect QE3 at some point in the future because the economy is so weak

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Nouriel Roubini Sees Risk of Global Recession

Edward Harrison — Sat, 13 Aug 2011 15:26:33 +0000

Nouriel Roubini took the seat in this week’s Big Interview chair with the Wall Street Journal. He says the risk of a global recession is greater than 50 percent and believes the next two to three months will be decisive in revealing which way the economy will go. Nouriel says the secular force impinging most on the global economy is deleveraging in indebted nations in the west. The leverage was concentrated in the private sector but the over-indebtedness is now manifest in the public sector as well

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Roach and Roubini: Chinese have lost confidence in America’s ‘dysfunctional economic stewardship’

Edward Harrison — Wed, 27 Jul 2011 13:44:30 +0000

Separately, both Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Roach, two leading American economists with differing views on the Chinese domestic economy have pointed out the concern China has with the dysfunctional US political system. Increasingly, the Chinese are showing signs that they are not pleased with tying up so much of their wealth in US dollars. How the Chinese plan to act upon their concerns is another matter, however

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Roubini: “Greece is clearly insolvent”

Edward Harrison — Thu, 26 May 2011 14:00:30 +0000

Greece is clearly insolvent. The Europeans should put a plan in place to deal with Greece and to reduce contagion. The contagion to Italy and Belgium is happening because of uncertainty and the inability to put forward a credible solution to the sovereign debt crisis. At the same time, the EU should demonstrate credibly how it plan to deal with Ireland, Portugal and Spain’s problems – and how they are not bankrupt

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