Credit Writedowns » Nouriel Roubini

Roubini: we will see a Greece credit event, regardless of deal

Edward Harrison — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 18:00:59 +0000

Roubini said that the "probability of a recession in the United States is lower than 60 percent right now." On Europe, he said that even if an agreement is reached on Greece, "there are going to be so many holdouts that then they’ll have a problem" and "either way you're going to get a credit event." This is my take as well. In Europe, the concern has to be more Italy and Spain and whether the periphery can meet deficit targets given the poor economic outlook in the euro zone

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Night time Music: Under Pressure

Edward Harrison — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 02:00:12 +0000

I was reading the latest economic forecast by Nouriel Roubini and thought of this song and video. Enjoy

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Roubini: Moving From the Post-Bubble, Post-Bust Economy to Growth

Edward Harrison — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 15:08:21 +0000

Here are the important extracts from a recent paper in terms of the causes of the crisis. I have also embedded the full pdf version, which has suggested policy prescriptions as well

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On State and Local Governments

Edward Harrison — Tue, 04 Oct 2011 18:27:27 +0000

The bottom line is this: Forget about Meredith Whitney. State and municipal governments are carrying a load in operating and pension costs that cannot be sustained through downturns in a secular bear market as the US population ages. These downturns will not be ordinary recessions. They will increase automatic stabiliser spending, decrease tax revenue and crystallise shortfalls in pension programs in a way that is existential for these governments. And that means a spate of defaults will occur

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Roubini: “Greece should default and abandon the euro”

Edward Harrison — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 16:14:57 +0000

In a post mirroring the policy prescription that German economist Hans-Werner Sinn recently gave, Nouriel Roubini advises Greece to default and exit the euro zone. Where Sinn is concerned about German taxpayers paying the bill left for bank creditors, Roubini is concerned about Greek taxpayers and workers also paying that bill

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Nouriel Roubini: “we’re going into a recession”

Edward Harrison — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 21:00:11 +0000

I don’t see anything major to disagree with here. Nouriel makes a lot of sense. Notice he’s pegging recession odds at 60%. That number for him was 30% as recently as a month or two ago

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Roubini: No QE3 announcement at Jackson Hole but QE3 will happen

Edward Harrison — Fri, 26 Aug 2011 02:28:28 +0000

Nouriel Roubini spoke to CNBC today about the Speech that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver tomorrow. Roubini does not expect Bernanke to announce QE3 in this speech. However, he does expect QE3 at some point in the future because the economy is so weak

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Nouriel Roubini Sees Risk of Global Recession

Edward Harrison — Sat, 13 Aug 2011 15:26:33 +0000

Nouriel Roubini took the seat in this week’s Big Interview chair with the Wall Street Journal. He says the risk of a global recession is greater than 50 percent and believes the next two to three months will be decisive in revealing which way the economy will go. Nouriel says the secular force impinging most on the global economy is deleveraging in indebted nations in the west. The leverage was concentrated in the private sector but the over-indebtedness is now manifest in the public sector as well

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Roach and Roubini: Chinese have lost confidence in America’s ‘dysfunctional economic stewardship’

Edward Harrison — Wed, 27 Jul 2011 13:44:30 +0000

Separately, both Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Roach, two leading American economists with differing views on the Chinese domestic economy have pointed out the concern China has with the dysfunctional US political system. Increasingly, the Chinese are showing signs that they are not pleased with tying up so much of their wealth in US dollars. How the Chinese plan to act upon their concerns is another matter, however

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Roubini: “Greece is clearly insolvent”

Edward Harrison — Thu, 26 May 2011 14:00:30 +0000

Greece is clearly insolvent. The Europeans should put a plan in place to deal with Greece and to reduce contagion. The contagion to Italy and Belgium is happening because of uncertainty and the inability to put forward a credible solution to the sovereign debt crisis. At the same time, the EU should demonstrate credibly how it plan to deal with Ireland, Portugal and Spain’s problems – and how they are not bankrupt

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Davos leaves Nouriel Roubini downbeat about policy coordination and Egypt contagion risks

Edward Harrison — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 15:15:51 +0000

Piggybacking off of my last post highlighting Nouriel Roubini’s talk with Simon Constable, I wanted to present three videos from Roubini’s appearance on NBC Europe this morning. In the earlier pre-Davos Wall Street Journal interview, Roubini was pointing out that great risks still remain in the global economy. He highlighted the need for policy coordination

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Nouriel Roubini Sees Great Risks in the US and Global Economy

Edward Harrison — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 03:00:51 +0000

Nouriel Roubini talks with the Wall Street Journal’s Simon Constable in the video below about both the developed economy – emerging economy divide that has developed as well as the challenges ahead for the US economy. His view on both core issues dovetails well with my own. First, on the emerging economy front, Roubini sees

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Nouriel Roubini’s Talk at Google’s Zeitgeistminds

Edward Harrison — Mon, 04 Oct 2010 17:45:00 +0000

Chrystia Freeland introduces Dr. Roubini, reminding him that he is still known as Dr. Doom. She quips he should wear the name with pride because he was "one of the very few economists who was actually right about the crisis." This reminds me of Nassim Taleb who said recently that we shouldn’t listen to anything

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The Bon Vivants of Doom And Gloom: Economist Nouriel Roubini and Author Nassim Taleb

Edward Harrison — Wed, 30 Jun 2010 14:00:00 +0000

I like how this reporter starts off his interview with Nouriel Roubini and Nassim Taleb. Of course what underlies this oxymoron is the "shoot the messenger" heuristic. Wikipedia describes "shooting the messenger" like this: "Shooting the messenger" is a metaphoric phrase used to describe the act of lashing out at the (blameless) bearer of bad

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Edward Harrison — Sat, 12 Jun 2010 22:00:59 +0000

Link of the Day Time to Slip into Something Less Comfortable? – BusinessWeek The Usual Fare England 1-1 USA | World Cup Group C match report | Football | guardian.co.uk FDIC: Press Releases – East West Bank, Pasadena, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of Washington First International Bank, Seattle, Washington ‘Double dip’ decline seen

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Roubini: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance

Edward Harrison — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 17:19:52 +0000

The following is an hour-long speech Nouriel Roubini recently gave based on his new book Crisis Economics–A Crash Course in the Future of Finance (Penguin Press, 2010). This is probably the most complete framing of the credit crisis by Nouriel you will be able to witness and he starts off comparing the crisis in the

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Roubini: For unemployment "the worst is yet to come"

Edward Harrison — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 05:01:10 +0000

Nouriel Roubini, writing in the New York Daily News , said on Sunday that “unemployed Americans should hunker down for more job losses” given the likelihood of a job less recovery. This was as gloomy a piece as I have seen from Roubini in the past few months. He has clearly become more downbeat about

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Hong Kong: “America is doing exactly what Japan did last time”

Edward Harrison — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:21:57 +0000

Hong Kong’s leader Donald Tsang has come out with a scathing criticism of U.S. monetary policy, comparing it to Japan’s which he believes contributed to 1997’s Asian crisis. This is the most direct and strident criticism of the U.S. Federal reserve’s monetary policy from a major international politician yet. Bloomberg reports: The Federal Reserve’s policy

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Bullish data, recoveries, crashes and the psychology of forecasting redux

Edward Harrison — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:55:50 +0000

If you have been wondering whether a statistical recovery is at hand, today’s ISM manufacturing report should be the clincher. The report was definitely bullish with the ISM index rising to 55.7 and sub-components supporting the understanding that the manufacturing sector is expanding. This is quite a contrast to last month’s weak data and demonstrates

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Andy Xie: Central bank “arsonists have been asked to put out the fire”

Edward Harrison — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:31:06 +0000

Former Morgan Stanley economist Andy Xie joins other famed prognosticators like Nouriel Roubini in worrying about an incipient asset bubble. The Rosetta Stone Advisors board member sees the huge increase in money supply created by central banks as fuel to an asset bubble fire. He even goes so far as to call the central banks

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Is the U.S. dollar carry trade replacing the one in Japanese yen?

Edward Harrison — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 20:39:45 +0000

Nouriel Roubini seems to think so. In remarks quoted via Bloomberg, he called the enormous increase in asset prices “the mother of all carry trades.” Investors worldwide are borrowing dollars to buy assets including equities and commodities, fueling “huge” bubbles that may spark another financial crisis, said New York University professor Nouriel Roubini. “We have

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CNBC denies culpability in Roubini as bull saga

Edward Harrison — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 13:57:39 +0000

I just read a CNBC story which fails to mention CNBC’s involvement in the apparently erroneous report that Nouriel Roubini has suddenly become more bullish. Is this omission justified? The controversy centers on statements Roubini made regarding the timing of a technical recovery in the United States. Yesterday, it was reported on CNBC and elsewhere

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Denninger accuses CNBC of falsely goosing market on Roubini’s back

Edward Harrison — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 11:31:11 +0000

Here is a video released by Karl Denninger of Market Ticker in which he shows exasperation with CNBC’s pro-bullish bias. He notes that CNBC used comments by Nouriel Roubini to suggest the economy is rebounding faster. Denninger sees this as a pattern at CNBC and brings up prior incidents of a similar nature. For his

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Roubini: Nationalization “fully on the table” in Geithner’s Plan

Edward Harrison — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 11:00:49 +0000

This is yet another semi-positive post about the Geithner plan. To reiterate, I think the plan is inadequate because it assumes illiquidity instead of insolvency and is a huge gift to the financial sector. But, that does not mean it will definitely not work in conjunction with other moves by Obama. In fact, to the

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Roubini and Shiller comments at Davos

Edward Harrison — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 12:38:59 +0000

Bloomberg has a good interview from the World Economic Forum at Davos with Nouriel Roubini and Robert Shiller on the credit crisis and banking industry. The video is below. Enjoy

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Nouriel Roubini: Will massive stimulus ward off stag-deflation?

Edward Harrison — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 14:44:39 +0000

I am certainly of the view that a considerable worsening of the recession is baked in the cake for 2009. But will fiscal and monetary stimulus prevent worst case scenarios? I certainly hope so, as I have laid out in recent posts. But, don’t take my word for it. The RGE Monitor headed by Nouriel

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Roubini: How to avoid the horrors of ‘stag-deflation’

Edward Harrison — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 21:03:00 +0000

The US and the global economy are at risk of a severe stag-deflation, a deadly combination of economic stagnation/recession and deflation. Only very aggressive and co-ordinated policy actions will ensure the global economy recovers in 2010 rather than facing protracted stagnation and deflation

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Nouriel Roubini: we are in recession

Edward Harrison — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 11:00:00 +0000

“Bloomberg on the Economy” recently spoke to Nouriel Roubini, the oft-quoted NYU finance professor. He believes the U.S. is now in recession and that a global slowdown is in the offing. There are several other countries in recession or poised for recession. I suggest you listen to the podcast or read the transcript in full.

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