Credit Writedowns » Niels Jensen

Random Shots (Absolute Returns Partners Edition)

Claus Vistesen — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 20:46:01 +0000

With so much going on at the moment and so many themes fighting to claim the main market discourse, I am in the mood for some random shots. First of all and to my continuing regret I have never actually got to thank Niels C. Jensen from Absolute Return Partners for the nice coverage I

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The Age of Deleveraging

Edward Harrison — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 15:38:12 +0000

John Mauldin’s latest is about deleveraging and how this secular trend will drive the macro picture in 2010. The question is why? Read and find out. Also see A conversation with Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio for another good commentary on this topic. John Mauldin, Best-Selling author and recognized financial expert, is also editor of the

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Mental Midgets and Moral Pygmies

Niels Jensen — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 04:05:56 +0000

The following is a re-print of the latest monthly newsletter from Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners, published with the express permission of the author. Visit www.arpllp.com to learn more about Absolute Return Partners. You can reach the firm by email at info@arpllp.com. I have arrived at the fourth and final letter in our series

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Video: Fitch downgrades Greece to BBB+ as violence erupts

Edward Harrison — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 14:47:41 +0000

Greece has been downgraded by Fitch Ratings to BBB+ over concerns about its budget deficit. Despite the cut, Fitch maintained a negative outlook on the country’s ratings, meaning it could fall further in the near future. This action highlights how the real sovereign debt crisis is in Europe not in Dubai. The ratings agency said:

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Time to Cut Taxes?

Niels Jensen — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 15:54:14 +0000

The following is a re-print of the latest monthly newsletter from Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners, published with the express permission of the author. Visit www.arpllp.com to learn more about Absolute Return Partners. You can reach the firm by email at info@arpllp.com. This post on taxes and budget deficits should remind one of three

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Hyperinflation, national bankruptcy, dollar crash and other exaggerations

Edward Harrison — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 20:25:19 +0000

Earlier today I wrote a post featuring comments by Marc Faber as I like to do from time to time. In this particular case Dr. Faber was waxing prosaically about an eventual bankruptcy of the U.S. government. His money quote was: “Next station is when the U.S. government goes bust.” I love this guy. Quite

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The Hamster on the Wheel

Niels Jensen — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:30:00 +0000

This latest monthly missive is on dwindling energy supplies – known as Peak Oil, something Edward has talked about before. The parabolic rise and collapse in oil prices we saw last year was not just about speculation, it was about peak oil and dwindling cheap natural resources. this essay gives a complete treatment of the

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Make Sure You Get This One Right

Niels Jensen — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 01:49:49 +0000

The Absolute Return Letter, July 2009 “You can’t beat deflation in a credit-based system.”-Robert Prechter The great debate As investors we are faced with the consequences of our decisions every single day; however, as my old mentor at Goldman Sachs frequently reminded me, in your life time, you won’t have to get more than a

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Green Shoots or Smoking Weed?

Niels Jensen — Fri, 29 May 2009 20:11:55 +0000

Asset bubbles are strange animals. Ideally, you would like to punch the air out of them relatively early before they become a real danger but, in practice, it is not quite so simple. Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan have actually both argued that asset bubbles cannot be detected and monetary policy should therefore not in

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The Fake Recovery

Edward Harrison — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 15:12:36 +0000

This April 2009 post is holding up well and still describes my view on the economic situation in the United States. I am much more confident that the cyclical forces I described here are leading to a recovery. The question now has to do with sustainability and all of the systemic issues still at play. Because the Obama administration has moved into deficit hawk mode so quickly, I see a double-dip (i.e. a second downturn in late 2010 or 2011) as more likely than not. Even if we avoid a double-dip, the U.S. economy will still be at stall speed for some time to come and that means that any recovery is likely to be a short one (three-four years tops)

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Europe on the ropes

Niels Jensen — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 00:00:55 +0000

The Absolute Return Letter March 2009 “Many of today’s policy proposals start from the view that “greed” and “incompetence” and “poor risk assessment” are the ultimate source of what went wrong. In fact, they were not the true cause at all. Moreover, even if they had been, it is fatuous to think that we will

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Do BRICs (and Germans) Eat PIGS?

Niels Jensen — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 15:20:40 +0000

When the euro was introduced about ten years ago, the pessimists didn’t give it much chance of reaching its tenth anniversary. The euro, or so the argument went, was doomed from the outset because of the wide spread in economic performance and discipline amongst the member countries. At one end you had, and still have,

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The emerging markets crisis

Edward Harrison — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 17:08:00 +0000

Last night an article by Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners caught my eye. In it, he made a very strong case for worrying about European bank exposure to emerging markets and its potential for creating systemic risk. I would like to share some highlights from this well-written piece and add a few thoughts of

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Quote of the day: Investment Bank Leverage

Edward Harrison — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 08:15:00 +0000

With Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley becoming bank holding companies, the traditional U.S. investment banking model has come to an end. But it bears remembering that investment banks are highly leveraged institutions. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will have to either deleverage significantly or merge with an existing depositary institution with less leverage in

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