Credit Writedowns » mortgages

Banks Paying Cash to Homeowners to Avoid Foreclosures

Edward Harrison — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:30:50 +0000

Here's the latest story that's been getting buzz around the internet: banks are trying to get troubled mortgages off their books without having to go through costly foreclosure processes and they are offering homeowners cash incentives to do so

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More on Banks Making Shed Loads But Fannie And Freddie “Losing Money as a Matter of Policy”

Edward Harrison — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 20:30:01 +0000

Fannie and Freddie have already been nationalized and the government is already on the hook for hundreds of billions of dollars of losses as a result. Clearly, this makes it a lot easier to use the GSEs as vehicles to pump money into the economy because any incremental loss is completely obscured by the existing gargantuan losses. Fannie and Freddie can essentially become a giant stimulus slush fund for the Obama Administration as we head into the 2012 election

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On Canadian and Australian bank risk

Marc Chandler — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 20:00:00 +0000

Banking sectors in both countries are highly concentrated. The top four banks in Australia account for about three quarters of the banking assets. The top six Canadian banks account for upwards of 90% of the Canadian banking assets. According to Fitch, the concentration and high profits of the banking sector is favorable to each as it provides a cushion against losses and need to pursue higher risk activity/lending. Both Canada and Australia are experiencing over-valued housing markets. The IMF estimates Canadian house prices are about 10% risk while Australia is 10-15% over-valued

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I repeat: The Fed’s Permanent Zero rate policy is toxic

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 14:20:05 +0000

Permanent zero can work over the medium-term but the economy is dependent on employment growth and monetary policy doesn't drive that

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[PREMIUM] More on the Fed – Obama stimulus plan

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 13:00:55 +0000

My last weekly said the hand-in-hand Fed activism and fiscal activism via Obama's mortgage proposal is bullish. Let me add a bit of colour here

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[PREMIUM] The Fed’s Rate easing and Obama’s Mortgage refi plan are bullish 26 Jan 2012
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The stark contrast between European economic policy and US economic policy

Edward Harrison — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 20:00:10 +0000

I was on CNBC yesterday ahead of Ben Bernanke's speech explaining the FOMC's recent decision to add an explicit inflation target to its decision to extend its rate easing/permanent zero policy. My conclusion: the Obama mortgage plan and Bernanke easing campaign are bullish for the US economy

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[PREMIUM] The Fed’s Rate easing and Obama’s Mortgage refi plan are bullish

Edward Harrison — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 19:30:41 +0000

Investors must still be worried about the fallout from the European meltdown. However, the situation in the US is looking much better than it did last week because of this aggressive policy response

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Full text: Moody’s reviews five Spanish covered bond programmes for downgrade

Edward Harrison — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 20:00:04 +0000

The following is the press release Moody's issued in putting the covered bonds of five Spanish banks on review for credit ratings downgrades

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News Links: Is Denmark on Verge of Icelandic Style Crash?

Edward Harrison — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 16:30:39 +0000

Financial news links for 8 December 2011 including stories on Denmark and Danish bank capital, the European sovereign debt crisis and Spanish banks

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News Links: Ten days of secret planning to rescue markets

Edward Harrison — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 18:15:24 +0000

News links for 3 December

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News Links: Europe’s rescue fiasco leaves Italy defenceless 7 Nov 2011
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News Links: BofA Clash With Fannie Mae Escalates Over Loan Buyback Stance

Edward Harrison — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 14:30:46 +0000

BofA Clash With Fannie Mae Escalates Over Loan Buyback Stance – Bloomberg Bank of America Corp. (BAC) told Fannie Mae it refuses to cooperate with the U.S. mortgage firm’s new stance on loan buybacks, setting the lender up for a potential surge in claims and penalties. EU’s Barnier: Tougher rules must precede euro bonds |

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News Links: Japan’s Hidden Jobless

Edward Harrison — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 14:30:53 +0000

2011/11/16 00:43 – Japan’s Hidden Jobless Hits 4.69mn, Worse Than After Lehman Shock The number of Japanese that want to work but are not actively seeking employment has surpassed levels from after the global financial crisis erupted, according to government data released on Tuesday. Some people have given up searching for work because they believe

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Spain Another Pain

Marc Chandler — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 15:00:04 +0000

Pressure is mounting on Spain. The 10-year yield today is essentially back to where it was when the ECB broadened its sovereign bond purchase scheme to include Spanish and Italian bonds. On Oct 27, the 10-year yield was near 5.33%. Today it is 100 bp higher. This is not a very conducive environment for tomorrow's new benchmark offering (up to 4 bln euros of bonds that mature in 2022)

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BofA delays Countrywide bankruptcy

Edward Harrison — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 03:16:08 +0000

The word is that BofA did in fact consider declaring their Countrywide subsidiary bankrupt to ring fence the rest of the company from Countrywide. It got as far as a board vote this past summer. This Wall Street Journal video discusses the issues of why it has postponed the bankruptcy filing

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Australia: There goes the neighbourhood

Guest Author — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 12:00:00 +0000

The last two days have seen the latest monthly data on credit growth in Australia from the RBA, and the latest quarterly data on house prices from the ABS. Together they confirm trends that I’ve identified on numerous occasions between the acceleration of mortgage debt and the change in house prices

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Deleveraging, Banks and Economic Recovery in Ireland

Guest Author — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 15:15:48 +0000

The challenge that the Irish economy faces can best be described in the context of flows and stocks of assets and liabilities. Under the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the IMF/EU/ECB Troika, Ireland must implement a severe fiscal austerity programme and reduce the size of its banking system. These goals must be achieved in the context of a deleveraging process in the household sector brought about by the need to repair balance sheets following a collapse in the value of housing assets. The current policy mix, which aims to reduce these stocks simultaneously, is unlikely to be successful, a feature we term the domestic trilemma. An external trilemma arising from the constraints of EMU membership also limits the policy choices for high-debt economies attempting to engineer an export-led recovery. This paper argues that a sequencing of policies is required for Ireland to achieve its goals

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Greece just got a debt jubilee. Who’s next?

Edward Harrison — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 13:00:00 +0000

I see this deal as a quid pro quo for the banks getting recaps in exchange for writedowns. Because it is a negotiated agreement of a sort of payment in kind, it isn't really clear if the banks are being made whole (as compared to a CDS-triggering default) as a result. Marc Chandler is saying this was really debt forgiveness, meaning that the banks have done a debt jubilee for Greece in exchange for recapitalisation backstops. I like that angle

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Secular decline in US housing equity

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 18:46:33 +0000

We stumbled upon this interesting chart from the Financial Stability Oversight Council’s 2011 Annual report which shows the share of owner equity in household real estate. It surprised us, not so much in that it is at record lows, but that owner equity showed only a blip upward during the housing bubble. The secular decline in owner equity is also an eye opener

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It’s official: Spain following Japanese example of propping up zombie banks

Edward Harrison — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 18:30:36 +0000

Moody's decision to place Popular's ratings on review for possible downgrade is driven by our view that the combined entity emerging after the integration with Pastor is likely to have a weaker credit profile than Popular's standalone credit strength

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Why is a bank that failed the stress tests in Spain getting bought at a 31% premium?

Edward Harrison — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 16:12:17 +0000

I don’t follow the Spanish banking sector well enough to know what hidden value Banco Pastor has but I find it curious that it is the subject of a takeover bid at a 31% premium by Spain’s fifth largest bank, Banco Popular

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Lenders now suing for mortgage debt after foreclosure

Edward Harrison — Tue, 04 Oct 2011 12:00:24 +0000

The statute of limitations is five years for default. That means banks still have until the beginning of 2012 to sue a strategic defaulter from early

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Hungary: Controversial Swiss franc loan law goes into effect

Edward Harrison — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 12:30:32 +0000

Central European borrowers loaded up on cheap Swiss franc and euro loans (mainly from Austria and Switzerland) in the lead up to the credit crisis because of higher nominal rates in central Europe. When the crisis hit, these loans became expensive overnight. In Hungary, one of the hardest hit due to currency depreciation, the government has legislated a fix that goes into effect today

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Why Nobody Went to Jail During the Credit Crisis

William Black — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 21:50:59 +0000

The following is a transcript of an interview with Financial Sense Newshour, a free financial/market broadcast hosted by money manager Jim Puplava on the week's market action, interviews with financial experts, and Jim's personal perspective on the markets/economy

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The FHFA Complaints and Control Fraud

William Black — Wed, 07 Sep 2011 19:30:41 +0000

The FHFA complaints lose explanatory power and persuasiveness because they ignore compensation and accounting. It pays to understand accounting control fraud

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No Bottom in Sight for Housing

John Lounsbury — Wed, 07 Sep 2011 05:21:21 +0000

From Global Economic Intersection Guest author: Keith Jurow is the author of the MVP Housing Market Report. This article was posted at Minyanville with the title “There Is No Housing Bottom in Sight” At the end of June 2011, macromarkets.com released the results of a poll in which 108 leading economists and housing market analysts

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Will ARMs de-stabilise the covered bond mortgage system?

Niels Jensen — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 13:30:34 +0000

Ed asked me to comment on hidden contingent sovereign liabilities of Danish mortgage bonds given the most recent Absolute Return Letter

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Herbert Hoover: On Bank Liquidity and Solvency, 1931

Edward Harrison — Mon, 05 Sep 2011 20:53:23 +0000

This is excerpted from the American Presidency Project at UCSB. Hoover writes the following letter to George L. Harrison, Federal Reserve Board of New York, on financial and economic problems on 5 Oct

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FHFA Sues 17 Firms to Recover Losses to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Edward Harrison — Sat, 03 Sep 2011 02:28:20 +0000

The complaints seek damages and civil penalties under the Securities Act of 1933, similar in content to the complaint FHFA filed against UBS Americas, Inc. on July 27, 2011. In addition, each complaint seeks compensatory damages for negligent misrepresentation

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A Credible Solution to America’s Mortgage Crisis

Niels Jensen — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 12:30:16 +0000

The adoption of the Constitution of the Kingdom of Denmark Act in 1849 provided the first regulatory framework and Danish mortgage financing has ever since been tightly regulated, ensuring an entirely unblemished track record with not a single default to report in over 210 years. Even in 1813, when the Kingdom of Denmark defaulted, the mortgage bond system survived intact. Even more impressively, the combined loss ratio for all Danish mortgage credit institutions (MCIs) has never exceeded 1% in any one year[7] – a number most other countries can only dream of

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Dumb things bloggers say

Edward Harrison — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 01:50:27 +0000

Alright, I have a mea culpa here. Check out this quote from June

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Policy Conclusions for Russia (Part 2)

Michael Hudson — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 18:30:00 +0000

Can Russia get the best of both worlds by freeing its economy from technologically unnecessary charges and rentier tolls paid to special interests? Such expenditures prevent the economy from developing. That is the basic cause of poverty – and hence of national decline. Now that neoliberal financial lobbyists have turned Progressive Era economic reforms upside down, it is necessary to “reform the reformers” in order for Russia to rebuild its economy in the way that made the U.S. and Western Europe so successful during their economic takeoffs

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Shiller: Austerity Negative for Housing

Edward Harrison — Thu, 28 Jul 2011 15:22:10 +0000

Economist Robert Shiller spoke with Carol Massar and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart" on Tuesday. Shiller sees the likely austerity that the US will see as a result of the debt ceiling debate as negative for housing demand and expects this to impact prices. Video embedded in post

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Michael Burry Profiled: Bloomberg Risk Takers

Edward Harrison — Wed, 20 Jul 2011 20:36:14 +0000

"Bloomberg Risk Takers" profiles Michael Burry, the former hedge-fund manager who predicted the housing market’s plunge, in video

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No Crisis Here

William Black — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 14:26:45 +0000

I decided to look at what President Bush’s Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) were saying in their annual reports for 2005-2007 about the massive real estate bubble, epidemic of accounting control fraud and mortgage fraud, the resultant rapidly developing financial crisis, and the great increase in economic inequality. Here’s what I found on these topics

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Mortgage company hires people to break in and steal from man not in foreclosure

Edward Harrison — Tue, 12 Jul 2011 12:22:39 +0000

And the police are not interested in prosecuting. Video below

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