Some Thoughts On Libya’s Likely Market Impact

By Win Thin The Libyan situation continues to deteriorate, with the expected impact on oil (up) and EM (down) being seen today. Libyan leader Qaddafi is hanging on to power despite reported defections by diplomats and soldiers, while his son threatened “rivers of blood.” So far, the Libyan response to the protests has been much

Euro Vulnerable As Periphery Wobbles And Middle East Simmers

from the Brown Brothers Harriman Currency Strategy Team

Highlights

The dollar is largely confined to narrow trading ranges, with sterling one of the day’s top performers following BoE’s Sentance comments that the inflation report understated the real inflation risks. Cable moved back above $1.610 but met resistance around the $1.614 area. The euro was little changed but downside risks abound as the dollar is likely to be supported by higher yields, helped by stronger economic data today. The news of a surge in overnight borrowing from the ECB has not impacted the euro much, but could add to the negative euro sentiment. EUR/GBP is near session lows. At the same time, the dollar is slightly weaker against the yen and the Swiss franc as tension in the Middle East and North Africa is helping boost safe haven assets. EM currencies are holding up well, however.

Mubarak Defies Expectations And Stays On

By Win Thin The situation remains unsettled in Egypt.  As of this writing, President Mubarak pledged to stay on until his term ends in September, but delegated some authority to VP Suleiman.  Because of his strong connections to Mubarak, Suleiman will not be taken well by the protestors and we think the situation will intensify

Peak Oil, the Saudis and the Middle East protests

One serious addendum I made to my 2011 outlook had to do with oil and commodity prices. While I am cautiously optimistic, there are a number of potential pitfalls to a rosy scenario. Here’s what I said about oil and commodities: Commodity price Inflation: There is a real threat to recovery from commodity price inflation.

Saudi Concerns About High Oil Prices Signals Potential OPEC Move

by Win Thin Saudi Oil Minister Al-Naimi said that crude oil prices between $70-80 per barrel are “appropriate.”  OPEC Secretary-General el-Badri said his group would add oil output in the event of any supply disruptions, pledging action if supply were to be reduced by 1 mln bbl/day or more.  Note that OPEC last changed its

Davos leaves Nouriel Roubini downbeat about policy coordination and Egypt contagion risks

Piggybacking off of my last post highlighting Nouriel Roubini’s talk with Simon Constable, I wanted to present three videos from Roubini’s appearance on NBC Europe this morning. In the earlier pre-Davos Wall Street Journal interview, Roubini was pointing out that great risks still remain in the global economy. He highlighted the need for policy coordination

Marshall Auerback on Market Implications of Civil Unrest in Egypt

Marshall Auerback spoke to BNN’s Squeeze Play about the civil unrest in Egypt and what the unrest means for financial markets and the global economy. The most obvious global implications regard the potential for civil unrest elsewhere and the impact of unrest on oil prices. Click on image below for the video.

Some Thoughts on Tunisia’s Implications for Investors

by Marc Chandler Through the Middle East, Tunisia’s recent experience is prompting policy responses. Officials seem concerned that the ease at which the Tunisia’s government was toppled could embolden the disenchanted elsewhere. High food prices and mostly soft growth prospects leave many countries vulnerable, especially non-oil producing Arab countries. Several countries have begun implementing policies

Abu Dhabi’s Gold Dispensing ATM

We need one of these! Citi invented the ATM, right? I wonder if Citi is on to this

Stimulus, recovery, patriotism and America’s shining city, Joe Biden style

“We shall be as a city upon a hill. The eyes of all people are upon us.” –John Winthrop Joe Biden is buying none of this America-as-an-empire-in-terminal-decline meme.  The Washington Post’s E.J. Dionne caught up with the Vice President on Tuesday to discuss the Obama Administration’s economic recovery plan.  Where he got most heated was

More on Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2010

Byron Wien was amazingly accurate last year in his economic predictions even though his annual list is an attempt to build a non-consensus list of likely outlier events. So, I was eager to see Byron Wien’s 2010 surprises, which were unveiled earlier today. Please read his list in the previous link as background. Reviewing 2009

Byron Wien: Ten Surprises for 2010

I will have some commentary on this in a future post or an updated version of this one. Update 1600 ET: you can see my commentary in the next post here. The Surprises of 2010 The United States economy grows at a stronger than expected 5% real rate during the year and the unemployment level