• Byron Wien: Ten Surprises for 2007 and 2008 5 Jan 2010
• Byron Wien: Ten Surprises for 2010 4 Jan 2010
• More on Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2010 4 Jan 2010

• The politics of the Goldman fraud case 19 Apr 2010
• The rough politics of European adjustment 1 Dec 2010
• On The Hypocrisy of Voters: The politics of economics redux 18 Oct 2010

• Greek bailout news 1 Feb 2010
• Foreign news: Is Amazon employing unemployed in Germany without compensation? 27 Nov 2011
• Foreign News: Commerzbank capital, Portuguese bailout, Franco-Belgian problems 23 Nov 2011

• News Links: The Real Reason Germany Doesn’t Want The ECB To Print Money 26 Nov 2011
• Foreign News: Eurobonds and contagion to Poland and Slovenia 25 Nov 2011
• Foreign News: Commerzbank capital, Portuguese bailout, Franco-Belgian problems 23 Nov 2011

• Is Iran About to Get Hot? 6 Nov 2011
• War in Iran: Is it inevitable? 11 Mar 2008
• Violence in Iran erupts 27 Dec 2009

• War in Iran: Is it inevitable? 11 Mar 2008
• Iran finds huge billion barrel oil field 13 Jul 2008
• Violence in Iran erupts 27 Dec 2009

• Random Musing: Technology vs. workers 22 Aug 2008
• Links: 2010-03-07 – Comparing job losses, China’s workers and more 7 Mar 2010
• Immigration bill may require biometric data of all workers, including teenagers 9 Mar 2010

• US Military Spending Is No Longer A Sacred Cow 6 Jan 2011
• Deficits Do Matter, But Not the Way You Think 20 Jul 2010
• On Food Riots, Peak Oil and Military Force 28 Mar 2011

• Some Thoughts On Libya’s Likely Market Impact 22 Feb 2011
• Saudi Concerns About High Oil Prices Signals Potential OPEC Move 31 Jan 2011
• Some Thoughts on Tunisia’s Implications for Investors 19 Jan 2011

• Is The American Dream Fading? 23 Sep 2010
• Ron Paul: The American People Have Been Too Submissive 21 Nov 2010
• Marc Faber: I advise every American to hold his gold outside of the United States 28 Nov 2008

• Indonesia on Food inflation: Let them eat garden food 7 Jan 2011
• Peak Oil, the Saudis and the Middle East protests 9 Feb 2011
• Peak oil: it’s all about the Saudis 27 Jun 2008

• Largest U.S. refiner Valero now permanently shutting capacity 20 Nov 2009

• Saudi Concerns About High Oil Prices Signals Potential OPEC Move 31 Jan 2011
• The Libyan Crisis: Where Are Oil Prices Going? 2 Mar 2011
• Oil breaks out above 2009 high 24 Aug 2009

• Tensions in Libya Batter Risk Appetite 22 Feb 2011

• Have commodity prices peaked? 23 Jul 2008
• Have commodity prices bottomed? 10 Mar 2009
• Commodity prices are dropping across the board 31 Jul 2008

If you thought this year was off to a challenging start for investors, fasten your seatbelts. March could very well turn out to be the most important month of the year. This does not mean there is easy money to be made or low-hanging fruit that can be picked.

To the contrary, the event risks are such that even the most insightful investors may be hard pressed to have much market conviction. Hugging benchmarks and defensive strategies will likely be a preferred strategy of many money managers. At the same time, understanding the significance and the meaning of the events may grant investors insight into the investment climate in the period ahead.

• Nouriel Roubini Sees Great Risks in the US and Global Economy 30 Jan 2011
• Davos leaves Nouriel Roubini downbeat about policy coordination and Egypt contagion risks 31 Jan 2011
• Sterling’s March: In like a Lion out Like a Lamb 31 Mar 2010

• The Big Interview with Austan Goolsbee 2 Oct 2010
• The Mega Jeremy Grantham Interview 7 Jun 2009
• Palin: Videos from ABC interview with Charlie Gibson 12 Sep 2008

• Rosenberg on the cause of the next secular uptrend in inflation or hyperinflationary shock 29 Jul 2010
• Ten Ideas That Would Turn David Rosenberg Bullish on the USA 24 Jan 2011
• Rosenberg: Stocks 35% overvalued 21 Apr 2010

• Peak Oil, the Saudis and the Middle East protests 9 Feb 2011
• Chrysler building: is the Middle East the new Japan? 9 Jul 2008
• Euro Vulnerable As Periphery Wobbles And Middle East Simmers 17 Feb 2011

• Saudi Arabia Tries To Calm Oil Markets 22 Feb 2011
• Saudi Concerns About High Oil Prices Signals Potential OPEC Move 31 Jan 2011
• Here come the Argentine Style Riots in Ireland 18 Nov 2010

• Saudi Concerns About High Oil Prices Signals Potential OPEC Move 31 Jan 2011

• Risk Appetite Recovers 26 Aug 2010
• Will the Risk Appetite be Sustained In North America? 1 Sep 2010
• Strong Earnings Bolster Risk Appetite 17 Sep 2010

• Hurricane Ike is going to have an impact 12 Sep 2008
• Some Thoughts on Tunisia’s Implications for Investors 19 Jan 2011
• Thoughts On The Two Koreas 23 Nov 2010

from the Brown Brothers Harriman Currency Strategy Team

Highlights

The dollar is largely confined to narrow trading ranges, with sterling one of the day’s top performers following BoE’s Sentance comments that the inflation report understated the real inflation risks. Cable moved back above $1.610 but met resistance around the $1.614 area. The euro was little changed but downside risks abound as the dollar is likely to be supported by higher yields, helped by stronger economic data today. The news of a surge in overnight borrowing from the ECB has not impacted the euro much, but could add to the negative euro sentiment. EUR/GBP is near session lows. At the same time, the dollar is slightly weaker against the yen and the Swiss franc as tension in the Middle East and North Africa is helping boost safe haven assets. EM currencies are holding up well, however.

• Chrysler building: is the Middle East the new Japan? 9 Jul 2008
• Peak Oil, the Saudis and the Middle East protests 9 Feb 2011
• Euro Stabilizes, But Remains Vulnerable Ahead of Raft of US Data 23 Dec 2010

• Peak oil: it’s all about the Saudis 27 Jun 2008
• Chrysler building: is the Middle East the new Japan? 9 Jul 2008
• Saudis drop WTI oil contract 29 Oct 2009

• Buffett: Is Berkshire’s Burlington move all about coal? 3 Nov 2009
• Oil breaks out above 2009 high 24 Aug 2009

• Nouriel Roubini Sees Great Risks in the US and Global Economy 30 Jan 2011
• Roubini and Shiller comments at Davos 29 Jan 2009
• Nouriel Roubini: we are in recession 29 Jun 2008

Marshall Auerback spoke to BNN's Squeeze Play about the civil unrest in Egypt and what the unrest means for financial markets and the global economy. The most obvious global implications regard the potential for civil unrest elsewhere and the impact of unrest on oil prices. Click on image below for the video.

• Some Thoughts on Tunisia’s Implications for Investors 19 Jan 2011
• Germany: austerity, social unrest, protectionism, gold bunkers and other links 13 Jun 2010

• The dollar rally spells trouble for some investors 5 Sep 2008
• More Thoughts On China 19 Oct 2010
• Thoughts On The Two Koreas 23 Nov 2010

• Desperate Housewives – UK style 17 Sep 2008
• National City Faces `Informal’ Probe Tied to Lending 8 Aug 2008
• National City is on probation 6 Jun 2008