• State and local governments: budget cuts likely 18 Mar 2008
• Spanish local governments struggling with bust 19 May 2008
• Links: 2010-04-07 – more on local governments in Riga and Detroit 7 Apr 2010

• Muni Bond Crisis: What Kind of Numbers Are We Talking? 21 Dec 2010
• Links: 2010-03-30 – Irish banks and muni downgrades 30 Mar 2010
• Links: 2010-04-05 – Eventual Greek default, muni threat and the end of recession 5 Apr 2010

We are now seeing almost all our sell signals go off and we recommend clients hedge portfolios and reduce market exposure. We have advised clients in the past to hedge their portfolios and reduce exposure when all our sell signals have gone off. The last two times all our sell signals were activated was in January and April. In both cases the stock market performed very poorly one month out. We have continued to add new tools to our buy and sell signals. As the following chart shows, the sum of our signals is flashing a warning sign.

These signals typically lead to stock market sell-offs and forecast poor returns one month forward. I could do several letters from people I highly respect who suggest that hedging your portfolio might be wise as we go into the New Year. But this has given you a sense of what I am reading. As for actual timing? This market has been skewed by QE2. Things can remain irrational for longer than we would think. I would urge some real caution. As the guys at Variant note, there will be some opportunities to buy back in.

• Thoughts on the weak retail sales number 14 Jul 2010
• Some brief thoughts on the Eurobond non-starter 11 May 2010
• A few thoughts about China and their bluff on treasuries 14 Mar 2009

• Bernstein: What kind of recovery are we going to get? 6 May 2009
• Muni Bonds: Tax Free Doesn’t Mean Worry Free 18 Dec 2010
• Links: 2010-03-30 – Irish banks and muni downgrades 30 Mar 2010

• State and local governments: budget cuts likely 18 Mar 2008
• Chart of the Day: State Budget Gaps 2010 19 Jan 2010
• Graphic: Unemployment – State by State 12 Jan 2010

• Meredith Whitney: more bearish than ever, but… 1 Dec 2008
• Is Meredith Whitney bullish now? 13 Jul 2009
• Meredith Whitney on C-Span 11 Sep 2010

• Meredith Whitney says nationalization is wrong and banks will lose money 19 Feb 2009
• State and Local Government: What a Drag 21 Jun 2010
• State and local government weighed down by housing 23 Jun 2008

• Are munis the next shoe to drop? 6 Apr 2010
• Meredith Whitney Comments on Housing Double Dip 21 Jun 2010
• Meredith Whitney: more bearish than ever, but… 1 Dec 2008

• Is Meredith Whitney bullish now? 13 Jul 2009
• Meredith Whitney: “I would diversify out of financials here” 14 Jan 2009
• Meredith Whitney seems onboard with the fake recovery 11 May 2009

• Whitney: The housing market surely will double dip 16 Mar 2010
• Meredith Whitney: more bearish than ever, but… 1 Dec 2008
• Is Meredith Whitney bullish now? 13 Jul 2009

• Tips for small business owners struggling amidst the credit crisis 22 Jan 2009
• Bank failures in Georgia crushing small business and home owners 3 Dec 2009
• Student Loans: New Credit Crunch Casualty 22 May 2008

• Is Meredith Whitney bullish now? 13 Jul 2009
• Meredith Whitney: “I would diversify out of financials here” 14 Jan 2009
• Meredith Whitney seems onboard with the fake recovery 11 May 2009

• Alpert: Two years until we see market-clearing prices in housing market 9 Mar 2010
• Case-Shiller: housing double dip threat as only 4 of 20 markets rise 23 Feb 2010
• Canada’s housing market is coming unstuck 29 Oct 2008

• John Hussman on Reckless Myopia 1 Dec 2009
• Jeremy Grantham: The market is 25% overvalued; 15% correction coming 26 Oct 2009
• Expect continued losses from Nordic bank exposure outside home market 8 Dec 2009

• Meredith Whitney: more bearish than ever, but… 1 Dec 2008
• Is Meredith Whitney bullish now? 13 Jul 2009
• Meredith Whitney: “I haven’t been this bearish in a year” 16 Nov 2009

• Meredith Whitney: more bearish than ever, but… 1 Dec 2008
• Meredith Whitney seems onboard with the fake recovery 11 May 2009
• Bill Miller and Meredith Whitney: The Bull and the Bear 14 May 2009

• Is Meredith Whitney bullish now? 13 Jul 2009
• Meredith Whitney: “I would diversify out of financials here” 14 Jan 2009
• Meredith Whitney seems onboard with the fake recovery 11 May 2009

• Meredith Whitney seems onboard with the fake recovery 11 May 2009
• Meredith Whitney: “I would diversify out of financials here” 14 Jan 2009
• Bill Miller and Meredith Whitney: The Bull and the Bear 14 May 2009

• Meredith Whitney: “I would diversify out of financials here” 14 Jan 2009
• Meredith Whitney says nationalization is wrong and banks will lose money 19 Feb 2009
• Meredith Whitney: more bearish than ever, but… 1 Dec 2008

• Meredith Whitney says nationalization is wrong and banks will lose money 19 Feb 2009
• Meredith Whitney: more bearish than ever, but… 1 Dec 2008
• Meredith Whitney: “I would diversify out of financials here” 14 Jan 2009

• Meredith Whitney: “I would diversify out of financials here” 14 Jan 2009
• Meredith Whitney: more bearish than ever, but… 1 Dec 2008
• The regionals versus money center banks 15 Jul 2008

• Meredith Whitney: more bearish than ever, but… 1 Dec 2008
• Quality financials are out there 18 Jul 2008
• Investors in Financials lose $10 billion 16 Jun 2008

• Marc Faber on CNBC: bearish on oil and India 23 Jun 2008