Post Tagged with: "manufacturing"
August Manufacturing Survey down but above expectations
I would highlight three key points: new orders and production are contracting while inventories are growing. So, overall, I would consider this a weak report that also exhibited soft forward-looking sub-components
Asian Manufacturing PMIs suggest slowing economic growth
My take: economic growth is moderating in Asia and that has caused central banks to become more dovish. Markets no longer expect the tightening cycle there to continue at the same pace. The 50 basis point cut in Brazil could be seen as a harbinger of more dovish emerging market interest rate policy everywhere – not that the CBs would go so far and cut as Brazil has done. The real question is China. They have been tightening. Will they continue to do so in the face of obvious weakening domestically and in Europe and North America
Life On the PMI Cold Comfort Farm
As the heat wave which has been hanging over Southern Europe for the last couple of weeks steadily eases off there is little sign that any of the warm air which is dissipating is reaching the chilled motors of the European and Chinese economies. The results of this months PMI readings are at best more of the same, and at worst show continuing deterioration. While current conditions stabilised in some areas, new orders, and especially new export orders often hit new post-recovery lows. There is every likelihood that the final August global readings will be much more of the same
After Ben, Markets Brace for US Payrolls
The impact of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony – his assessment of the economy and the further accommodation that can be provided to stem economic stresses into next week – will dominate market action into the next week. The G10 currency complex has been highly sensitive to the global risk environment. The potential to break outside recent ranges is down to the policy responses to the crisis together with the continued evolution of the growth figures with elevated volatility levels indicating the markets are preparing for further disruption ahead
Manufacturing data suggest contraction
The Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell to -10 in August from -1 in July, joining other manufacturing index sugessting contraction in the sector
Eastern European Growth – Coming Rapidly Off The Boil?
The latest round of EU GDP data, brought to light a reality which many who have been closely following the economies of Eastern Europe already suspected: that the heavily export dependent economies in the region would almost inevitably be dragged down by the rapid slowdown in Europe’s principal economic motor, the German economy
Could There Really Be A Recession Risk In Germany?
In Germany movements in GDP follow movements in the rate of expansion of exports. Let’s not get into why that is for the moment (think Germany’s particular demography), and just consider the possibility, despite all the talk over the years of Germany finally “decoupling”, that it can’t. Export dependence could well be the key explanation for why the performance of the German economy is so “extreme” and so volatile, with quarters of record growth being witnessed just before the onset of substantial recessions, recessions which often register record falls in output only to be followed by massive recoveries
Here’s why US manufacturing data have pointed to weakness since March
While the potential still exists for manufacturing to tick back up, the jobs picture and the fiscal and monetary backdrop are not supportive of this outcome. The inflation backdrop is the best part about this picture, with that subindex having dropped substantially since February’s peak at 82%.
Pre-Market: Potential US Budget Deal Brings Back Risk Appetite, But Pitfalls Lurk
US leaders agree on budget deal, but House vote poses event risk ahead of August 2 deadline. Euro zone periphery benefits from improved market sentiment, but remains vulnerable. Equities and EM FX firm today on US news and stronger than expected China July
Double Dip in the Euro Zone Periphery
As Europe’s leaders struggle to convince markets that their Greek debt problem-resolution-proposals are actually viable, and will really do the trick, last week’s flash PMI readings seem to have attracted rather less attention than they might. Nonetheless, the fact of the matter is that it is steadily becoming clearer that the current slowdown in Eurozone economic growth is turning into something more than just another one of those pesky “soft patches”
Worrying weak macro trends in China, US and Europe
Economic growth warning signs are evident all around in recent data from the US, Europe and China. This should mean negative earnings surprises by Q3 earnings season
After careful consideration, I remain bearish
The S&P has gone from 2 standard deviations below the 20-day moving average on the 16th June to 2 standard deviations above it now, something it did prior to the 87 crash when it rallied 6.4% in the week prior to the crash. It has been doing this more and more frequently recently although not of the scale of swing we have just seen. Our economists have already said that a single payroll figure is not sufficient to cause QE3 to which I agree. Commodity prices are telling us that further Asian stimulus is not going to happen unless offset by demand destruction elsewhere in the world. The risks are clearly mounting up