Credit Writedowns » manufacturing

[Premium] India will be worse than China

Edward Harrison — Tue, 22 May 2012 18:39:08 +0000

When I listed my Ten Surprises for 2012 in January I predicted that China would have a hard landing, defined as quarterly growth below 5% annualised by the end of this year. But I also said that India would be worse than China. And it is this combination that makes me more concerned about the global growth slowdown in emerging markets than the crisis in Europe. This is a big, big story but no one is talking about it because Europe is sucking up all of the air

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[Premium] Daily commentary: On the Manufacturing PMI divergence

Edward Harrison — Wed, 02 May 2012 13:22:28 +0000

A slew of manufacturing data was released today in Asia and Europe to go along with the Manufacturing data we saw yesterday in the United States. The data show a divergence of economic fortunes that demonstrates the severity of Europe's austerity-induced economic recession. However, the strength of the US data has to be questioned as all of the regional indices came in below the prior month's data and forecasts except the Richmond Fed Index

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Consensus caught out by ISM Manufacturing upside surprise

Marc Chandler — Tue, 01 May 2012 17:54:14 +0000

The US manufacturing ISM surprised the market in a favorable direction. Rather than soften like the consensus expected, the diffusion index rose to 54.8 from 53.4. This represents the strongest showing in eleven months

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Chart of the day: US Manufacturing Employment, 1960-2012

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 01 May 2012 14:00:36 +0000

Note the peak in manufacturing jobs in June 1977, which represented 22 percent of all nonfarm payrolls, then, to fall to less than 9 percent of total employment today. It’s too earlier to claim victory with the current recovery in the manufacturing sector, but it is the the first positive slope since mid-1990′s

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Chart of the day: US Manufacturing Employment, 1960-2012 originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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[Premium] Daily commentary: On negative German data surprises

Edward Harrison — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 17:51:28 +0000

I have been saying that I expect German data to disappoint and come in on the softer side. Why? This post explains

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[Premium] Daily commentary: German retail sales and PMI 2 Apr 2012
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German decoupling is an illusion

Sober Look — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 17:08:25 +0000

The concept of German decoupling from the Eurozone recession may have been wishful thinking. The latest German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has converged with that of the Eurozone as a whole. Manufacturing PMI is a closely watched index and tends to be a leading indicator for the GDP. In response, Spain's 5yr sovereign CDS hit a new record high of 511bp (previous high was 510 on 4/16). The Eurozone is headed for a double dip

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Euro Zone News Stream Remains Negative

Marc Chandler — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 11:41:35 +0000

The string of developments has encouraged risk-off behavior. Equity markets are lower. Core bonds are higher. The high beta currencies, such as the freely traded emerging market currencies, the Australian and Canadian dollars, the euro, Swedish krona, and of course, the euro itself, are under strong pressure. The US dollar and Japanese yen are the main beneficiaries

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Video: The Transparent Factory

Edward Harrison — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 20:27:37 +0000

I thought I would mix it up a bit with this clip of a Volkswagen factory in Dresden, Germany. The factory is very cool

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US Manufacturing Surprises to the Upside

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 03 Apr 2012 00:16:58 +0000

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the US purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for March increased to 53.4 from 52.4 in February, beating expectations of 53. It’s the 32nd consecutive month that the index has been at least

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[Premium] Daily commentary: German retail sales and PMI

Edward Harrison — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 23:14:19 +0000

The German data is still looking rather weak. I saw some numbers out of Germany that showed business confidence was rising. I don't know why

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