Credit Writedowns » manufacturing

Global Manufacturing Steadies as She Goes, or Does She?

Edward Hugh — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 21:00:02 +0000

The year got off on a much better foot than might have been expected, at least as far as global manufacturing is concerned. So the fall in global manufacturing has flattened out, even though the bounce back has more of a dead cat look about it than anything else. As usual in recent months the report was very much a mixed bag

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Short Note on ISM Manufacturing Survey

Marc Chandler — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 14:50:38 +0000

The Institute for Supply Management reports its January manufacturing survey on February 1. The Bloomberg consensus expects a small increase to 54.5 from

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Fear Factory: Jon Stewart on Foxconn

Edward Harrison — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 18:00:01 +0000

This is grim. Bill Black has the analysis; he thinks this is a criminogenic environment of control frauds

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Anti-employee Control Fraud

William Black — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 16:00:27 +0000

Apple has released a report on working conditions in its suppliers’ factories. It highlights a form of control fraud that criminology has identified but rarely discussed. I write overwhelmingly about accounting control fraud because it drives our recurrent, intensifying financial crises. The primary intended victims of accounting control frauds are the shareholders and the creditors. Other private sector control frauds target customers (e.g., George Akerlof’s 1970 article on “lemons”), and the public (e.g., the unlawful disposal of toxic waste, illegal logging, and tax fraud)

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Chart of the Day: International Manufacturing Compensation Costs Compared

Global Macro Monitor — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 16:30:36 +0000

Great data from the BLS comparing hourly compensation for manufacturing. The second chart looks at the benefits component of the hourly cost

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China: Lots of news, signifying nothing new

Michael Pettis — Sun, 18 Dec 2011 02:24:51 +0000

I don’t think there is a whole lot to say about this week’s numbers beyond what I have been saying for the past several months. Nothing substantial has really changed. China’s external account is worsening, and will continue to worsen since global imbalances have no choice but to adjust. Growth in China is slowing but remains relatively rapid, and as unhealthy as ever, but there is little likely to be done to improve the quality of growth until 2013. Beijing will continue veering back and forth between stomping on the credit accelerator and stomping on the credit brakes as the only way they can manage the economy

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Dollar Firm As Italy Yields Rise, Euro Zone IP Falls

BBH — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 12:30:09 +0000

The dollar is broadly firmer as Italian yields rise at 5-year bond auction, euro zone IP falls.Swiss data weak ahead of SNB meeting tomorrow; Norges Bank seen cutting rates 25 bp. China data gives cover for more PBOC easing; RBA suggests AUD weakness will help cushion economy

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News Links: European and Chinese Manufacturing Stalls, as US Advances

Edward Harrison — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 14:30:45 +0000

ISM – ISM Report – November 2011 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® "The PMI registered 52.7 percent, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from October’s reading of 50.8 percent, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 28th consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased 4.3 percentage points from October to 56.7 percent, reflecting the

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Charts of the day: Understanding the latest economic data out of China

Win Thin — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 21:30:23 +0000

The weak November HSBC PMI for China has added to market bearishness. This is not the official PMI but we do note that while the HSBC measure has been below 50 for 4 of the 5 past months, the official PMI has yet to fall below 50, but it was reported at 50.4 in October, the lowest since February 2009. A further drop in the official PMI below 50 seems hard to avoid. Slowing in the Chinese economy is inevitable given the deteriorating external environment as well as PBOC tightening measures taken in 2010-

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Foreign News: Commerzbank capital, Portuguese bailout, Franco-Belgian problems

Edward Harrison — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 14:00:00 +0000

Here is the second version of this foreign news links post that I am starting. The feedback yesterday was good. You all said it makes sense to see what the press in country are saying in Europe since that is the locus of the sovereign debt crisis, so I will continue this

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India getting hit by European slowdown

Edward Harrison — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 15:30:02 +0000

Over the past couple of days I have noticed a lot of posts on the FT’s emerging markets blog about a growth slowdown in India that is occurring as a direct result of the worsening outlook in Europe

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Thai Floods and Yen Appreciation

Marc Chandler — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 16:49:23 +0000

Given the poor track record of intervention, unilateral or multilateral, sterilized or unsterilized, there may be no compelling need to understand why the $100 bln intervention is not sticking. All sorts of possible explanations seem partly at play. Intervention has not been repeated. The failure to push the greenback above JPY80 lent bullish yen safe haven views intact. Spot intervention is less effective than repeated operations in the swaps and options market too, as the SNB is thought to have done. In any event, another force may be at work and that is the floods in Thailand. They have hit the Japanese auto sector hard as Thailand is an important production base. Other industries have also been hit as reports by Hitachi and Canon indicate

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October 2011 Manufacturing ISM misses estimates

Edward Harrison — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 14:05:36 +0000

ISM’s October 2011 Manufacturing report on Business came in at 50.8, a level just above contraction. Last month was

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The Greek Tragedy Resurfaces

BBH — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 11:30:11 +0000

Greece’s decision to hold a referendum weighing on sentiment; global PMIs most softer thus far. EUR/USD has retracted half of its Oct. move in two days; Greek referendum increases disorderly default risk. US ISM manufacturing key report of North American session; Asian trade numbers focus of EMs

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China PMI drops to lowest in 32 months

Edward Harrison — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 02:49:06 +0000

50.4 is the lowest number since early 2009, during the depths of the recession. So this number, shades above contraction, is a big deal. In fact, the sub-index for new (export) orders index is contracting, meaning slowing economic growth in the developed economies is now impacting China as well

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Chicago PMI at 58.4 tells a mixed message

Edward Harrison — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 15:30:13 +0000

In terms of business activity, the Chicago ISM highlighted the fact that order backlogs recovered from two months of contraction and that employment was the highest in six months, even while new orders erased half of September’s gain. As any number above 50 shows expansion, this is generally good report. But the message is mixed because of the continued fall in the three-month moving average

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Markit Flash German PMI Shows Modest Rise; French PMI Contracts Sharply

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 12:00:00 +0000

Key points: German Flash Composite Index at 2-month high; Flash Services Index at 3-month high; French Flash Composite Index at 29-month low; Flash Services Index at 27-month low

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European PMI surprises to the downside; Policy will dominate week

BBH — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 11:30:00 +0000

Euro zone summit ends with no line drawn in the sand; European PMI surprises to the downside. Markets look for euro zone to present comprehensive three-pong approach to finalize crisis this week. US Q3 GDP expected at 2.5%’; Private sector Chinese Flash PMI reassures our soft-landing view

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Input Costs of the iPhone

Global Macro Monitor — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 14:08:21 +0000

Great graphic constructed by Mobile Phone Tracker coming to us via Nicholas Jackson of The Atlantic. We were surprised that only $7.00 goes to Foxconn to manufacture each unit. Here are some of Jackson’s favorite “facts and figures” of the iPhone’s input costs

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Alcoa earnings call points to weakness in China and Europe

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 15:48:25 +0000

Our macro takeaway from the call is that Europe is rolling over. No normal September bounce from the seasonally slow August. The company also notes what they see as a temporary slowdown in China. Alcoa missed and the stock got hammered in AH trading

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Macro Notes from the GM Sep Sales Call

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 20:30:42 +0000

We forgot to post this yesterday. The macro issues raised by GM in their September sales conference call. All are direct quotes from GM management

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US manufacturing sector expands at slightly faster pace in September

Edward Harrison — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 15:00:29 +0000

All of the major sub-indices from new orders to production to employment recorded an acceleration in growth. This is a good report in the face of weakening macro fundamentals globally. However, the US manufacturing sector is very close to contraction even so and this one month increase in data cannot be seen as portending a vigorous revival in growth

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US Durable Goods Orders: Another Point for a Good Q3 GDP

Marc Chandler — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 14:48:14 +0000

Today's durable goods orders data lends credence to our projection of fairly robust Q3 US GDP after the dismal 0.8% expansion in H1. The durable goods report is the third important piece of data that should encourage economists to look for something close to what is regarded as trend growth in the US (2.5%-3.0%). The sharp rise in July personal consumption expenditures and the smaller real trade deficit were the other two piece

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What can we learn from the policies that spurred the Industrial Revolution?

Rick Bookstaber — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 16:25:55 +0000

Some of the dominant policy issues of today – immigration, energy, the emergence of China – have their analogues in the great Industrial Revolution. The key government policies that laid the foundation for the Industrial Revolution in England include supporting the immigration of skilled workers, allowing for private ownership of farm land, weakening the unions of the day (the guilds), and addressing the energy crisis (in charcoal). And contrary policies in Italy and Spain – countries that were far wealthier and advanced than was per-Industrial Revolution England – derailed a similar revolution from occurring in continental Europe. England would not have been anyone's first bet as the cradle of the Industrial Revolution

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August Manufacturing Survey down but above expectations

Edward Harrison — Thu, 01 Sep 2011 17:25:52 +0000

I would highlight three key points: new orders and production are contracting while inventories are growing. So, overall, I would consider this a weak report that also exhibited soft forward-looking sub-components

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Asian Manufacturing PMIs suggest slowing economic growth

Edward Harrison — Thu, 01 Sep 2011 12:30:35 +0000

My take: economic growth is moderating in Asia and that has caused central banks to become more dovish. Markets no longer expect the tightening cycle there to continue at the same pace. The 50 basis point cut in Brazil could be seen as a harbinger of more dovish emerging market interest rate policy everywhere – not that the CBs would go so far and cut as Brazil has done. The real question is China. They have been tightening. Will they continue to do so in the face of obvious weakening domestically and in Europe and North America

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Life On the PMI Cold Comfort Farm

Edward Hugh — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 20:40:13 +0000

As the heat wave which has been hanging over Southern Europe for the last couple of weeks steadily eases off there is little sign that any of the warm air which is dissipating is reaching the chilled motors of the European and Chinese economies. The results of this months PMI readings are at best more of the same, and at worst show continuing deterioration. While current conditions stabilised in some areas, new orders, and especially new export orders often hit new post-recovery lows. There is every likelihood that the final August global readings will be much more of the same

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After Ben, Markets Brace for US Payrolls

Marc Chandler — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 17:00:01 +0000

The impact of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony – his assessment of the economy and the further accommodation that can be provided to stem economic stresses into next week - will dominate market action into the next week. The G10 currency complex has been highly sensitive to the global risk environment. The potential to break outside recent ranges is down to the policy responses to the crisis together with the continued evolution of the growth figures with elevated volatility levels indicating the markets are preparing for further disruption ahead

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Manufacturing data suggest contraction

Guest Author — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 13:35:55 +0000

The Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell to -10 in August from -1 in July, joining other manufacturing index sugessting contraction in the sector

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Eastern European Growth – Coming Rapidly Off The Boil?

Edward Hugh — Mon, 22 Aug 2011 17:00:00 +0000

The latest round of EU GDP data, brought to light a reality which many who have been closely following the economies of Eastern Europe already suspected: that the heavily export dependent economies in the region would almost inevitably be dragged down by the rapid slowdown in Europe’s principal economic motor, the German economy

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Could There Really Be A Recession Risk In Germany?

Edward Hugh — Thu, 04 Aug 2011 14:00:01 +0000

In Germany movements in GDP follow movements in the rate of expansion of exports. Let’s not get into why that is for the moment (think Germany’s particular demography), and just consider the possibility, despite all the talk over the years of Germany finally “decoupling”, that it can’t. Export dependence could well be the key explanation for why the performance of the German economy is so “extreme” and so volatile, with quarters of record growth being witnessed just before the onset of substantial recessions, recessions which often register record falls in output only to be followed by massive recoveries

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Here’s why US manufacturing data have pointed to weakness since March

Edward Harrison — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 18:00:13 +0000

While the potential still exists for manufacturing to tick back up, the jobs picture and the fiscal and monetary backdrop are not supportive of this outcome. The inflation backdrop is the best part about this picture, with that subindex having dropped substantially since February’s peak at 82%.

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Pre-Market: Potential US Budget Deal Brings Back Risk Appetite, But Pitfalls Lurk

Marc Chandler — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 11:30:21 +0000

US leaders agree on budget deal, but House vote poses event risk ahead of August 2 deadline. Euro zone periphery benefits from improved market sentiment, but remains vulnerable. Equities and EM FX firm today on US news and stronger than expected China July

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Pre-Market: Potential US Budget Deal Brings Back Risk Appetite, But Pitfalls Lurk originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Double Dip in the Euro Zone Periphery

Edward Hugh — Mon, 25 Jul 2011 16:39:02 +0000

As Europe’s leaders struggle to convince markets that their Greek debt problem-resolution-proposals are actually viable, and will really do the trick, last week’s flash PMI readings seem to have attracted rather less attention than they might. Nonetheless, the fact of the matter is that it is steadily becoming clearer that the current slowdown in Eurozone economic growth is turning into something more than just another one of those pesky “soft patches”

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Worrying weak macro trends in China, US and Europe

Edward Harrison — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 12:12:46 +0000

Economic growth warning signs are evident all around in recent data from the US, Europe and China. This should mean negative earnings surprises by Q3 earnings season

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