Post Tagged with: "jobs"
Gundlach: “It’s very difficult to move forward with a debt-based economic scheme”
Jeffrey Gundlach spoke with Joe Weisenthal of Business Insider in an exclusive interview which they recently carried on their site. Gundlach believes that the economy is “a low-performance mode” that makes the unemployment overhang difficult to solve. In his view, there is “deflation risk in the economy at times when the government isn’t stimulating.”
Why is Germany doing so well?
There’s been a lot of talk since America’s dismal employment situation summary was released on Friday about why Germany has done so well during the global economic recovery. Here’s David Leonhardt of the NY Times: The brief story is that, despite its reputation for austerity, Germany has been far more willing than the United States
Playing Old Maid
The BLS invented 206,000 jobs. The Bureau has constructed an equation called the “Net Birth/Death Model.” Its purpose is to count “Business births.” That is, new jobs in new businesses net the number of lost jobs in “Business deaths”: companies that went out of business. This figure plays a large role in how Americans are told to think about the economy
Markets Cautious Ahead of NFP
The US dollar is mostly firmer across the board ahead of NFP; equities and commodities softer. US NFP to determine cyclical tone ahead of quiet week; USD/JPY & USD/CHF likely to decline. UK PMI ebbed, euro zone PMIs revised higher; Greek adjustment plan announcement likely
China: First the credit writedowns, but then what?
The immediate problem is the excess capital investment and the costly maintenance of the projects it has spawned. Longer-term, Asia’s growth prospects look good
China: rebalancing through wage increases
Is China currently rebalancing? The currency has been appreciating, the PBoC has hiked interest rates four times, and wages have been surging. Because of all of this I am often asked if China has finally begun the long-waited rebalancing process and whether we have yet seen an improvement in the underlying economy caused by a rising consumption share. Those who were hoping the answer was yes will have been disappointed by the release Thursday of the World Bank’s China Quarterly Update – April
More on Unemployment Insurance for the 21st Century
Unemployment insurance for 21st century in the form of a jobs program could end the malinvestment and predations of politicians and foster a strong economy. We need jobs but we must be mindful of predator state capitalism. My proposal below addresses both of those concerns
244,000 jobs added in April 2011
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 244,000 in April, and the unemployment rate edged up to 9.0 percent
Market Review: Asymmetric Dollar Risks Ahead of NFP; Commodities Still Under Pressure
Dollar pares back some of its gains ahead of NFP; risk appetite marginally improves
NFP is likely to surprise to the downside but a “big miss” needed for a large market move
Commodity currencies remain in focus; RBA signals potential rate hikes
Should Irish Voters Follow the Example Set by Icelandic Voters?
Voters in Iceland have rejected their government’s attempt to foist on them the costs of bailing out foreign creditors. Should voters in Ireland too
Earnings, Employment and Inflation
Recent data suggest we are at the point where energy prices are creating demand destruction. Economic growth has slowed to below 2.% in the US. Further, ISM data suggest that companies are at the breaking point in their ability to absorb costs. The lack of a large move upward in employment suggests that companies have relied on wage and labour cost suppression to maintain EPS targets. Unless, we see a reduction in energy prices, we will either see pressure on EPS growth or increased retail price inflation
Unemployment claims data deteriorate sharply
In the week ending April 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 474,000, an increase of 43,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 431,000. The 4-week moving average was 431,250, an increase of 22,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 409,000. -US Department of Labor This represents a significant deterioration