Post Tagged with: "jobs"
After careful consideration, I remain bearish
The S&P has gone from 2 standard deviations below the 20-day moving average on the 16th June to 2 standard deviations above it now, something it did prior to the 87 crash when it rallied 6.4% in the week prior to the crash. It has been doing this more and more frequently recently although not of the scale of swing we have just seen. Our economists have already said that a single payroll figure is not sufficient to cause QE3 to which I agree. Commodity prices are telling us that further Asian stimulus is not going to happen unless offset by demand destruction elsewhere in the world. The risks are clearly mounting up
Markets Cautious Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls
Dollar is mostly firmer ahead of NFP report; Stocks in Europe were impacted by new credit concerns. Market expecting a good number following ADP; USD/JPY likely to firm off the back of higher yields- The Brazilian real was the best performing currency yesterday. China reports data earlier than expected
Ideology and economics
For ideological reasons, one might believe that limiting or reducing government is better. However, it does not follow that doing so is a painless exercise
Chart of the Day: Depth and duration of jobs crisis
Last week I showed you one way to look at the jobs crisis in graphical form. Here’s another from Calculated Risk.
Chart of the day: Job level relative to prior peak
Since the recession in 1990-91, the recovery of employment in the US has had a U-shape that is nothing like the previous post-World War II employment recoveries. This one will be the worst
On How The US Job Market Is Shifting
Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) explains his view to Anthony Mason of CBS that the problem in the US jobs market is not jut cyclical in nature
Employment Faces Grim Decade
The U.S. labor market will not return to full employment (defined as a 5% unemployment rate) by following a “business as usual” course. In conjunction with reforms to the U.S. education system to ensure that the workforce has the needed skills to succeed, progress in other areas must happen
On why Bill Gross supports a job guarantee despite railing against the deficit
Politically, the whole thing looks a lot like Japan. To my mind, the right approach then is to de-emphasize “increasing… borrowing and lending” and re-emphasize increasing jobs and employment. Whether we see work sharing as we see in the Netherlands and Germany or a job guarantee, this could deal with the deficit and structural issues that conservatives care about and the demand issues that liberals care about
Can Obama cut the deficit and have job growth too?
Stephanie Kelton demonstrates that as long as unemployment remains high, the deficit will remain high. Here’s the formula: Spending creates income. Income creates sales. Sales create jobs. If you think you can cut the deficit without destroying jobs, dream on. She argues that instead of dreaming about ways to pull off the impossible, it’s time get to work on a plan to increase employment
Philly Fed survey shows collapse in activity
This is in line with the weak data we have seen out of the US in recent weeks. I expect Q2 growth estimates to continue to decline as the data come in
The jobs crisis is not just about demand
If the US wants job growth, it will need to reduce private sector debt levels – and that takes time. The government can act a a counterweight to the demand drag but I am very sceptical of claims like Summers’ that doing so would solve a jobs crisis borne out of a debt crisis
Gundlach: “It’s very difficult to move forward with a debt-based economic scheme”
Jeffrey Gundlach spoke with Joe Weisenthal of Business Insider in an exclusive interview which they recently carried on their site. Gundlach believes that the economy is “a low-performance mode” that makes the unemployment overhang difficult to solve. In his view, there is “deflation risk in the economy at times when the government isn’t stimulating.”