US Jobless claims came out again today as they do every Thursday at 8.30AM. The numbers were not good, and give a clear indication of why the Fed will not cut rates in the face of 5.6% inflation. Initial claims came in at 450,000, moving the 4-week average up to 440,500. Continuing jobless claims also rose, coming in at 3,417,000. All numbers are seasonally adjusted. While the data may be skewed by the 3-month jobless claims extension, it is evident that the labor market in the US remains weak.

A week ago, jobless claims rose to a multi-year high of 448,000 on the back of seasonal adjustments. This week is no different, but there are some telling changes that make this week’s numbers more worrisome.
First, jobless claims hit a six-year high of 455,000 for the week, sending the 4-week average initial claims above 400,000 [...]

Jobless claims hit a 5-year high of 448K last week, leaving everyone under the impression that the employment numbers are deteriorating rapidly. However, the massive increase in jobless claims for the past week is very misleading because actual claims fell.

U.S. jobless claims were 406,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, up 34,000 on the week prior and surpassing 400,000 for only the 3rd time this business cycle. While the numbers were large, they are very distorted by seasonal adjustment factors; actual jobless claims fell 70,000 from the week prior.
Nevertheless, the employment outlook for the U.S. [...]

With a slew of layoffs ranging from airlines to banking, expect both claims data and the unemployment rate to spike up substantially. This week may be the first such week as jobless claims came in at 404,000, the 2nd time over 400,000 this business cycle. 4-week average data is now at 390,500, +71,250 [...]

At 8:30 EDT this morning, the Labor department released its jobless claims numbers. The numbers are not appreciably different than a week ago. But they are largely consistent with recession: 384,000 jobless claims and 3,139,000 continuing claims.
Year-on-year changes:

4-week Average jobless claims: +62,250 (at 378,250 claims)
4-week Average continuing claims: +592,500 (at 3,103,250 claims)

Below are the [...]

I was inputting some statistics into an excel spreadsheet for unemployment claims when it occurred to me: the Bush administration is cooking the books. Not literally, but figuratively. Here’s my logic.
Let’s leave aside whether the unemployment numbers reflect reality or not. But, the fact of the matter is that unemployment claims have been going up [...]

The U.S. Department of Labor just released the weekly report for unemployment insurance claims. Initial claims were 384,000, while continuing claims rose to 3.139 million. The 4-week average moved up to 3,099,250. This is 593,000 more than one year ago. Below is the chart for the last two years of continuing [...]

Barry Ritholtz at the Big Picture is on to something. He has found A Perfect Recession Indicator. Since 1953, when year-over-year Non-Farm payrolls have gone negative, there has been a recession. This happened nine out of nine times for a perfect score! (I actually looked at the data from 1939 and [...]

Every week the U.S. Department of Labor puts out the previous week’s jobless claims statistics through its Employment and Training Administration (Doleta). Analysts look at it to get a sense of how employment is being affected by the underlying economy in order to predict what consumer spending will be like down the road. The [...]