Some Thoughts on the U.S. Jobs Report and Implications

As often is the case, economic data can be a bit of a Rorschach test, in that reasonable people can see and value different aspects of the report. This holds for today’s US employment report. The headlines were good–140k private sector jobs were created, near expectations, back months were revised up by 72k, and the unemployment rate fell unexpected to 8.6%.

The details are less inspiring

NFP up +120,000, unemployment rate 8.6%, hourly earnings down

Bottom line: the numbers are decent but they beat expectations. Markets are in a bullish end of year tape painting frame of mind, so stocks will rally. Daddy needs a bonus so Santa is indeed coming to town. The Santa Claus rally is on

Dollar Soft ahead of US Payrolls

The dollar is trading on an easier footing as risk improves ahead of payrolls and hope of EZ action. US private payrolls expected to come in at 150k; strong report likely to be supportive of sentiment. Merkel calls for treaty changes in order to make way for fiscal union; India reviewing FX policy

Foreign News: France and Germany are still miles apart on agreement

Foreign news for 1 December 2011 focuses on Europe, and in particular Spain

Foreign news: Is Amazon employing unemployed in Germany without compensation?

Foreign news links for 27 November 2011. We have a variety of links here today with most focused on the European sovereign debt crisis. Protest and terrorism are two other topics of great interest

An Open Letter to Dr Jens Weidmann

The EZ crisis is approaching a tipping point beyond which market panic and slow government reaction threaten to create a generation-defining loss of jobs, savings, and pensions. This open letter to the president of the German central bank presents arguments that counter German objections to using the Eurozone’s last remaining defence against economic calamity – the

Warren Mosler’s Big Fat Greek MMT Exit Strategy

It is beginning to look like a Greek exit is ever more likely, which means that the end of the EMU could be near.

Even if exits and a break-up are not inevitable, countries should have a plan on the shelf. It is clear that Germany is going to insist on the maximum austerity it can squeeze from nations facing a run on their debt. Hence, if nothing else, an exit strategy is required for negotiations. The best strategy would be for all the so-called PIIGS to band together with a believable threat to exit together. That could finally break the logjam.

I’m not optimistic about that. In any event, it is time to examine proposals for dissolution. Warren Mosler has formulated what looks like a nice, clean exit strategy that EMU members can adopt. I am reprinting here with his permission

News Links: Japan’s Hidden Jobless

2011/11/16 00:43 – Japan’s Hidden Jobless Hits 4.69mn, Worse Than After Lehman Shock The number of Japanese that want to work but are not actively seeking employment has surpassed levels from after the global financial crisis erupted, according to government data released on Tuesday. Some people have given up searching for work because they believe

Class Warfare and Revolution (Circa 1850)

By Rick Bookstaber In a recent post I discuss six policies that spurred the Industrial Revolution in England – opening up immigration, weakening the guilds, investing in infrastructure, privatizing agricultural land, forcing a move to new energy sources, and policies for bringing capital to the new, capital-intensive technologies – and suggest that these policies have

Chart of the Day: U.S. Payroll Employment By Industry, October 2011

A breakdown of Friday’s numbers with net loss and gain by key industry

Kicking the “Cannes’” Down the Road

Markets are cautiously optimistic ahead of Greek confidence vote, US payrolls and G20. US private payrolls expected to increase by 125k; Greek headlines still likely to drive price action. G20 unlikely to deliver much in terms of policy solutions; problems require national solutions

The German labour market miracle

Jobs and the lack of them are top of the agenda for policymakers and increasingly groups of protestors gathered in the financial districts of New York, London, and elsewhere. Unemployment in these countries is in danger of reaching 10%. In Germany, however, unemployment is below 7%. Some hail it as a miracle. This column finds a scientific – and far less inspiring – explanation