Credit Writedowns » Jeremy Grantham

On recessions and earnings volatility

Edward Harrison — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 18:00:59 +0000

After posting the Jim Bianco article on getting defensive, I traded e-mails with Jim on recessions and earnings volatility. Here’s what he had to say after I showed him the article

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Grantham: European and American policy makers are clueless

Edward Harrison — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 13:23:26 +0000

In America everyone has been bellyaching about the S&P ratings downgrade like its an affront to the greatness of America. This is absolute rubbish. It’s pure denial and economic nationalism. Do you think the Germans would threaten to default on their bonds for purely political reasons? The Swiss? Even the Belgians aren’t threatening to default for no reason and they don’t print their own money. I say S&P should have downgraded the U.S. even more – maybe to Ba for Banana Republic!

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Peak Coal and Jeremy Grantham’s Clarion Call on Natural Resources

Edward Harrison — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 20:39:32 +0000

Coal is one of many natural resources which are in short supply. This article provides one example from India. Jeremy Grantham believes that peak resources is a phenomenon which will pose problems for the global economy in the future. He has written a second consecutive quarterly note on peak resources that this time concentrates on the human suffering

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Commodity Prices and Paradigm Shifts

Rick Bookstaber — Tue, 17 May 2011 00:00:00 +0000

People who are staring at a tsunami of demand for commodities from the developing world and predicting a doomsday of $400 oil and $4000 gold are missing the longer-term retreating tide of demand as citizens of the developed world actually demand decreasing amounts of energy, large goods, and heavy infrastructure. We won't be packing up and moving to Mars, as the science fiction solutions to resource depletion propose. We will pack up and move into the virtual world

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Grantham: “Lighten up on risk-taking now and don’t wait for October 1 as previously recommended.”

Edward Harrison — Wed, 11 May 2011 15:30:34 +0000

Jeremy Grantham is seriously bearish again. In part 2 of his latest quarterly newsletter, he departs from the peak resources argument he made in part 1 and focuses on the overvaluation in stocks. His advice: sell!

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Ben Bernanke’s Press Conference

Edward Harrison — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 20:45:48 +0000

Today marks the first time we are witnessing a regularly scheduled news conference by a Fed chairman in the Federal Reserve's 98-year history. Most reactions to Ben Bernanke's performance were positive, meaning he reiterated the themes he has consistently delivered in the past without making any gaffes. But that goes to style; what about substance? Here's my take

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Grantham: ‘Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever’

Edward Harrison — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 19:39:31 +0000

Grantham: "The world is using up its natural resources at an alarming rate, and this has caused a permanent shift in their value. We all need to adjust our behavior to this new environment. It would help if we did it quickly."

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Comments by Faber, Gross, Roach, and Grantham on the Political Economy

Edward Harrison — Mon, 17 Jan 2011 21:00:50 +0000

Over the past several days, I have caught some very good commentary by a number of well-known financial industry experts. I wanted to share my own thoughts with you on their commentary, especially in light of my last posts on Eisenhower’s Farewell Address and The New Monetary Consensus. I have featured two of the commentaries

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Jeremy Grantham has ‘already started to sell’

Edward Harrison — Thu, 11 Nov 2010 21:30:30 +0000

This is a must-see video that runs 30 minutes. Take the time to watch the whole thing. It is a real coup that CNBC got Grantham on their program. Overall, Grantham’s view is the same as mine. The Fed should get out of trying to use monetary policy to do fiscal policy. It doesn’t work;

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Grantham: Night of The Living Fed

Edward Harrison — Tue, 26 Oct 2010 23:16:34 +0000

From From Jeremy Grantham’s latest quarterly letter: If I were a benevolent dictator, I would strip the Fed of its obligation to worry about the economy and ask it to limit its meddling to attempting to manage inﬂation. Better yet, I would limit its activities to making sure that the economy had a suitable amount

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Grantham: Finance Goes Rogue

Edward Harrison — Wed, 21 Jul 2010 15:00:00 +0000

Grantham argues that a disproportionate share of the US economy is devoted to financial services

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Grantham: Deflation has won on points

Edward Harrison — Tue, 20 Jul 2010 03:12:16 +0000

Well, I, for one, am more or less willing to throw in the towel on behalf of Inflation. For the near future at least, his adversary in the blue trunks, Deflation, has won on points. Even if we get intermittently rising commodity prices, which seems quite likely, the downward pressure on prices from weak wages

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Profiles on contrarian economic analysts and other links

Edward Harrison — Sat, 12 Jun 2010 22:00:59 +0000

Link of the Day Time to Slip into Something Less Comfortable? – BusinessWeek The Usual Fare England 1-1 USA | World Cup Group C match report | Football | guardian.co.uk FDIC: Press Releases – East West Bank, Pasadena, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of Washington First International Bank, Seattle, Washington ‘Double dip’ decline seen

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Playing with Fire

Edward Harrison — Sat, 24 Apr 2010 00:01:41 +0000

It’s spring, and this spring a young man’s fancy lightly turns to thoughts of speculation. The Fed’s promises look good and, as long as you’re not a small business, you can borrow to invest or speculate at no cost. The market has had a near record rally, sprinting far past our estimated fair value of

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Jeremy Grantham: The market is 25% overvalued; 15% correction coming

Edward Harrison — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 01:31:15 +0000

Jeremy Grantham is out with his much anticipated Quarterly Letter and it’s a good one. “Just Deserts and Markets Being Silly Again” is a cutting, snarling, and sarcastic rejection of the prevailing V-shaped recovery bull market view. But Grantham is far from ultra-bearish, giving a more nuanced and realistic assessment for the medium and longer-term.

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Getting bearish again

Edward Harrison — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 03:24:29 +0000

You have probably noticed a change in tone at Credit Writedowns since about June, but a lot more in the past month or so. Once mildly bullish due to the deeply oversold levels this Spring, I have become increasingly alarmed at the unjustified strength of the recent market rally. My most recent post explaining my

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Jeremy Grantham: Overheating in China, speculative rallies and fair value

Edward Harrison — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 17:12:35 +0000

Jeremy Grantham is out again with a very important investment strategy piece entitled “Boring Fair Price!” He leads off by talking about how markets went from extremely overvalued a year ago to cheap back to a state which he considers fair value. But, he sees the recent rally as a speculative rally which is a

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Rosenberg: Market rally is just multiple expansion

Edward Harrison — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 19:12:01 +0000

David Rosenberg is out with a bearish piece on equities today (I hop that doesn’t surprise you). He sees the market as still overvalued at these levels. The key, he say is that most of the rally has been built on multiple expansion and not earnings growth. Here is what he says (emphasis added) We

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The Mega Jeremy Grantham Interview

Edward Harrison — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 03:34:31 +0000

This is an interview in five parts via Morningstar on May 28th with the one-time reputed perma-bear Jeremy Grantham who has been sounding much more bullish of late (in a bear-market rally kind of way). Definitely worth a look. The five parts run just over 20 minutes. Part 1: On dipping a toe back into

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Grantham: go with high quality and hedge against inflation

Edward Harrison — Wed, 06 May 2009 01:04:09 +0000

Jeremy Grantham is out with his quarterly update. And he has a number of investment themes worth mentioning. First, I should mention that his global outlook is fairly downbeat: We are experiencing the most severe synchronized global downturn in several generations. While governments have been quick to react, there are limits to what policy can

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More bullishness from Jeremy Grantham

Edward Harrison — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 20:01:46 +0000

Jeremy Grantham, who is chief investment strategist of Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co and manages over $85 billion is telling clients to get out of cash. His March newsletter had this to say: Every decline will enhance the beauty of cash until, as some of us experienced in 1974, ‘terminal paralysis’ sets in. Those

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Jeremy Grantham: “Pull the trigger”

Edward Harrison — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 14:00:14 +0000

In a Fortune article about how the market is hitting new lows, Jeremy Grantham predicted we will see a material new low. He's talking about 600, or mind you, 450 on the S&P 500. Now, that's low. Nevertheless, he's fairly bullish here

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Jeremy Grantham: In-depth television interview with Consuelo Mack

Edward Harrison — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 14:15:25 +0000

The renowned money manager Jeremy Grantham has had his first television interview ever with Consuelo Mack on Mack's program WealthTrack. Below is the video from that interview. Mack has promised to make a longer video available to those who subscribe to her podcast. Please find the podcast audio link here and the podcast video link here

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Jeremy Grantham: “Keep telling yourself… you’re a long-term investor”

Edward Harrison — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 17:00:00 +0000

Jeremy Grantham has seen this crash coming for quite some time. Nevertheless, he is not selling everything and waiting out the market in Kruggerrands and cash. has kept a good long-term perspective about investing that bears repeating here. Keep telling yourself every night that you’re a long-term investor and don’t look at daily stock prices.

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Jeremy Grantham: “I am officially scared”

Edward Harrison — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 09:35:00 +0000

“I am officially scared. In 2000, we had a technology bubble. But this is massive, a massive credit crisis and a bubble in global housing, global equity and global land.” -Jeremy Grantham as quoted by Chicago Tribune Related Posts Jeremy Grantham: “Many shares priced for… economic collapse” 12 Jul 2008 Jeremy Grantham: the bear growls

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Jeremy Grantham: “Many shares priced for… economic collapse”

Edward Harrison — Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:51:00 +0000

Super-bear Jeremy Grantham had something positive to say for once. Well actually it’s only a friend of Jeremy Grantham, oh well. But it IS positive — sort of. “The good news, provided you are by now heavily liquid, is that there are many shares priced for a degree of economic collapse that even I do

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Jeremy Grantham and experts: credit crunch far from over

Edward Harrison — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 14:36:00 +0000

The tenor was downbeat at a panel put together by Pensions and Investments online that included well-known Boson-based investor Jeremy Grantham. Grantham is on record as being a sceptic of the current investment climate and sees the rally from 2003 as a bear market rally in the middle of a secular bear that started in

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Jeremy Grantham: the bear growls

Edward Harrison — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 11:47:00 +0000

Jeremy Grantham, a hedge fund manager based in the Boston area, is one of the more respected money managers who has had a cautious view on equities during this past economic cycle. The Canadian daily Globe & Mail has a good interview with him. Text is below. Renowned value investor Jeremy Grantham knows an investment

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