Credit Writedowns » James Montier

[Premium] More on my prediction of margin compression in the US and how Apple fits in

Edward Harrison — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 13:15:10 +0000

This weekly newsletter is a gold-level post and follows up on my prediction early last month about 2012 being a period of margin compression in US companies, threatening the rally in stocks and mandating a rotation in investment style or sector weighting

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James Montier does MMT

Edward Harrison — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 02:00:44 +0000

It seems that a lot of analysts have caught onto the MMT framework popularized by the late economist Wynne Godley and made topical in this downturn by Rob Parenteau of the Richebacher Letter. We have seen Martin Wolf use Godley and Parenteau’s financial sector balance approach to dissect both the Japanese and European macro-economy. More

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Spinoza, Descartes and suspension of disbelief in the ivory tower of economics

Edward Harrison — Fri, 14 May 2010 14:34:16 +0000

Here’s something I want to run by you on behavioural economics and the way economic issues are being debated in the blogosphere. We are witnessing an implosion of long-held belief structures that go the core of how we believed our economic system functioned. You heard Alan Greenspan admit this after the financial system collapsed in

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Montier: Was It All Just A Bad Dream? Or, Ten Lessons Not Learnt

Edward Harrison — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 09:34:27 +0000

James Montier, a member of fund manager GMO’s Asset Allocation Team, examined whether we learned anything from the market declines of 2008 and early 2009. His answer is, as you would expect, not a lot. Below, is an outline of the ten lessons not learned followed by a link to the full paper. It’s a

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Fix the real economy first: lessons from James Montier 25 Mar 2009

Bank leverage: forever blowing bubbles part two

Edward Harrison — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 19:39:48 +0000

You have heard me use the phrase “liquidity is seeking return” to describe the increase in the price of riskier assets due to monetary stimulus. The Bloomberg News video clip below points to an increase in lending for buyers of riskier loans like high yield and mortgage bonds. The blurb below from the associated article

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China’s present growth story is built on malinvestment

Edward Harrison — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 14:13:04 +0000

Late last year, I predicted that China, as a major exporter to the West, would feel a huge impact from the meltdown in the global economy, taking it’s growth rate down to 2% (See Top ten predictions for the 2009 global economy). Forgetting about the fact that data are highly suspect in China, I see

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Links: 2009-06-28

Edward Harrison — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 12:51:07 +0000

Bank of NY Mellon sees writedowns, 2009 profit: report – Reuters This is what I expect many banks to be saying later this quarter. Is Obama Edging Towards Bush-Like Indefinite Detention? – Michael Scherer, Swampland This is very disappointing. We now have some serious political compromises on finance, civil liberties, health care, and the war

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Does Ben Bernanke blow bubbles too?

Edward Harrison — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:52:18 +0000

During Alan Greenspan’s tenure at the helm of the Federal Reserve, he was often accused of using monetary policy to target asset markets so as to keep the party going. In short, Alan Greenspan was seen by many, including myself, as the bubble blower-in-chief. All of this came to an end with the very hard

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Fix the real economy first: lessons from James Montier

Edward Harrison — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 20:00:35 +0000

James Montier has a very good piece out via John Mauldin (JohnMauldin@InvestorsInsight.com) on the need for real economy stimulus over financial sector stimulus. The quote I find most memorable goes to the heart of our debate about the financial system: Investors seem to be rather excited about banks posting profits at the moment. Frankly, if

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James Montier sees “deep value” in markets – he is bullish

Edward Harrison — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 17:31:59 +0000

James Montier, a market guru usually known as a permabear has turned bullish of late. In keeping with my bullish sentiments, I have posted his thoughts below according to Bloomberg News. That said, I should always qualify my 'bullishness.' I still believe we are in a bear market and that equities will go lower on an inflation-adjusted basis. Investing only in index funds is a bull market strategy to be avoided like the plague. However, there are many stocks trading for 3 and 4 times earnings like Valero Energy or Chevron that deserve a look - Montier obviously agrees. This is shaping up to be a value investor's dream

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