Credit Writedowns » Italy

The Elephant in the Room Is Spain, Not Italy

Marshall Auerback — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 21:30:47 +0000

The decision for Europe’s bosses is this: they must ultimately confront the consequences of their policy choices. They can destroy the eurozone by continuing with the same failed mix of policies or by salvaging it by adding what has been missing from the outset: a mechanism for shifting surpluses to the deficit regions in the form of productive investments (as opposed to handouts or loans)

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An Update on Italian Sovereign Outperformance

Marc Chandler — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 17:40:32 +0000

Ahead of the next LTRO at the end of the month, Spanish and Italian bonds may begin consolidating after the large moves seen over the past month. The scope for Italian out performance in the month ahead appears somewhat more limited than over the past month. Indeed, the 5.5% yield level on the Italy's 10-year generic bond may prove a bit sticky. It also corresponds to trend line on the weekly charts, drawn off the yield low of 3.7% in mid-Oct 2010. Spain's 10-year yield decline is slowing as it slips through the 5% threshold

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The Unlikely Bull Market

Niels Jensen — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 16:30:46 +0000

This is not the time to be fully invested but neither is it the time to be side lined. We are in a nervous market where great opportunities present themselves at regular intervals. We recommend holding 25-50% in cash or cash like instruments (depending on your risk profile) which can be deployed at short notice when those opportunities arise

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Chart of the Day: Developed economies’ debt levels by sector

Edward Harrison — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 14:00:41 +0000

This is a great chart below via the Wall Street Journal. It shows the total debt to GDP ratios for the largest developed economies in the world broken down into four sectors: households, non-financial corporations, financial institutions and government

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The Importance of the Mario Brothers

Marc Chandler — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 01:00:10 +0000

They are not really brothers, but Mario Draghi and Mario Monti are countrymen and are doing a great deal to respond to the European debt crisis in ways that were unimaginable until very recently

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Monti, The Full Version

Edward Hugh — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 13:00:22 +0000

Fortunately the ECB has deep pockets, and as I argue in this post, these will probably suffice to keep short term bond yields down to acceptable levels, and help the banks fund themselves and recapitalise. What the ECB’s LTRO’s won’t do is get new credit moving (one significant part of the initiative involves banks in the troubled periphery economies not having to write down the asset side too much too quickly, so there will be little room for “creative destruction”)

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Willem Buiter: “We will certainly have a panic stage before the debt crisis is resolved” (part 2)

Edward Harrison — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 03:10:10 +0000

Continuing from part 1 of the Willem Buiter interview with het Financieele Dagblad

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Buiter: “The temporary pause in the European debt crisis is as deceptive as the frenzy before the New Year”

Edward Harrison — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 02:22:37 +0000

The countries of the eurozone will eventually emerge from the sovereign debt crisis -- with pain and difficulty

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Willem Buiter: “We will certainly have a panic stage before the debt crisis is resolved” (part 1)

Edward Harrison — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 02:10:57 +0000

The countries of the eurozone will eventually emerge from the sovereign debt crisis -- with pain and difficulty. That is what Citigroup chief economist Willem Buiter, on a visit to Amsterdam on Friday during a roadshow, expects. Spain and Italy will get their finances in order and the ECB will jump in when necessary. Deep integration of fiscal policy, according to him, is not necessarily required

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Successful Auctions Boost Tone in Europe

BBH — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 12:30:04 +0000

Better than expected reception to Spain and Italy’s debt auctions have spurred risk on; dollar softer. BoE, as expected, left policy unchanged, ECB expected to do the same; Japan’s current account shrinks. US advanced retail sales expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%; thoughts on the EM central bank outlook

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Thoughts Ahead of Spanish and Italian Bond Auctions

Marc Chandler — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 16:00:00 +0000

Spain and Italy begin this year's funding operations with bond auctions tomorrow and Friday. Although the euro is bouncing along its recent trough against not only the dollar, but against many of the other major currencies as well, there has been a modest improvement in some of the measures the market has focused on as metric of stress. Of course there are other signs that still show a high level of paralysis, including the fact that overnight deposits at the ECB continue to set record levels and are approaching 500 bln euros

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The fireworks will start with Spain or Italy

Edward Harrison — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 22:30:50 +0000

Here's what I had to say about Europe on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster on Thursday night. I'm not bullish on the real economy there (but I still expect relative share outperformance due to lower P/Es). The US is having a bit of a data surge to the upside: housing, employment, manufacturing, all of these numbers have been better of late

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Right Now the Debt Crisis is European, But the Problem is Global

Comstock Partners — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 01:00:27 +0000

In addition to the European economic recession exerting a drag on the rest of the world, the real threat of bankruptcy of a major financial institution can rapidly spread throughout the globe as a result of a run on the banks or the opaque interrelationships between European banks and financial institutions in other nations

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Why Spain may be More Worrisome than Italy

Marc Chandler — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 18:54:18 +0000

At the end of last year, Italian 10-year yields were more than 200 bp on top of Spain. The spread has narrowed in recent days, but is still well beyond the euro era average of about 10 bp and the late 2008 extreme near 65 bp. There is more room for Italy to outperform Spain

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Euro Slump Extended, Mediocre Italian Bond Auction, Poor Hungarian Debt Sale

Marc Chandler — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 12:30:37 +0000

The euro extended yesterday's losses in Asia, falling to $1.2866, the lowest level since the start of the year. The euro's losses against the yen were also extended with new 10-year lows recorded just above JPY100.30. Italy wrapped up a difficult year by selling about 7 bln euros of a 5-8 bln target range. Yields were around 50-120 bp lower than the last auctions with similar bid-cover. The results did not help the Italian bond market stabilize and the 10-year yield continues to flirt with 7%

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Italy Braces Itself For The Full Monti

Edward Hugh — Mon, 26 Dec 2011 18:39:01 +0000

The bottom line is that Italy is both too big to fail and too big to be bailed out, which is why it is still hanging dangerously in limbo-land. Since, as I argue in this article, some sort of restructuring or other is well nigh inevitable in the Italian case, the sooner Europe’s leaders work up a credible plan on how to achieve this, the better. Otherwise it will not only be Italy’s citizens who are subjected to the Full Monti, Europe’s leaders may also find themselves with their credibility stripped naked

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More Charts of the Day: Italy Works Over 20% More Hours Than Germany and France

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 19:45:52 +0000

The stereotype of lazy southern Europe and the hard working North is just not reflected in the data. We came across this BLS data set over the weekend which was very enlightening and, in part, smashes this widely held generalization

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Curbing Our Enthusiasm, Increasing Our Bet…

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 19:00:07 +0000

We could be wrong on this one and may have too much faith in the Eurocrats, but think of consequences if we are wrong? If the EU fails here, it will 1931 all over again and will put the “Great” in this rolling depression/recession. Therefore, we bet they’ll come up with just enough to let Super Mario do his thing. After that we’ll reassess and look at the long-term consequences, but hopefully 100 S&P points higher

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The European Troika to Watch

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 20:30:04 +0000

The “troika” – Italian, Spanish, and French bond yields - is acting pretty well even after the S&P downgrade. Italy is under 6 percent and that is what matters. We sense there will be tremendous pressure on the shorts and equity risk off crowd going into the EU Summit and believe the market moves higher even if it’s just a fig leaf to give the ECB cover. After that? All bets off going into 2012. Stay tuned

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Buiter: no politically feasible route to sustained growth for many years to come

Edward Harrison — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 15:21:10 +0000

In the aftermath of the emergence of a “reinforced ‘Stability and Growth Pact’”, Citigroup chief economist Willem Buiter is pessimistic about growth outcomes in the major developed economies because the political economy of the sovereign debt crisis will stymie any pro-growth policy solutions. While Buiter sees giving the ECB a green light to monetise euro area government debt as the genesis of the deal, he anticipates years (or decades) of low growth and he warns that ECB policy support will neither be “open-ended” or “unconditional”. On a positive front, Buiter says it “should allay concerns about disorderly sovereign defaults by Italy or Spain and about euro area break-up.”

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Italian minister breaks down in tears over austerity budget

Edward Harrison — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 14:00:00 +0000

Italy's government has come forward with an aggressive 30 billion euro austerity package to prevent the country's bankrupcty and pave the way for the fiscal integration that Angela Merkel is pushing as the key to solving the European debt crisis. In the video below, Elsa Fornero, the Italian welfare minister, broke down in explaining the provisions. The package also increases taxes on housing, luxury items and via a 23 percent VAT, a measure Ireland is also taking. Approval is expected before Christmas

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Fasten Your Seatbelts: A Week that Can Rock your World

Marc Chandler — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 15:23:29 +0000

Starting today and running through next week, there is a key event nearly every day

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Official Action and Why Italy is Still at the Vortex

Marc Chandler — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 14:45:00 +0000

The EU Summit is the last opportunity of the year, and some observers say the last opportunity period, for action that will begin seriously addressing the crisis. Tomorrow France's Sarkozy is expected to present his proposals tomorrow and Germany's Merkel Friday. Germany and French proposals to expedite a fiscal union are important, but watch what Italy does. Before the summit, Italy will likely announce a new package of austerity that will take several important steps toward what Merkel and Sarkozy have in mind that are necessary for fiscal union

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Credit Writedowns Weekly Report, Vol 1 Issue 2: Solutions in Europe?

Edward Harrison — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 14:35:49 +0000

Below are the five ways now being discussed to tackle the euro zone sovereign debt crisis. I should say that overall, it is still unclear how far along European leaders are in defining a mutually agreeable outcome. Just this morning, I have seen evidence that France and Germany are still far apart on agreeing the details of the plan they plan to bring forward. meanwhile the euro zone finance ministers want to get the IMF involved. frankly, this thing is all over the shop and we won’t know what will happen until right before it does. My money is still on a German-style fiscal integration which would include EU oversight and austerity to be followed by a stronger ECB role and (maybe) Eurobonds down the line. Angela Merkel is still acting as if she is against Eurobonds but we know they have not been ruled out after fiscal integration since even Juergen Stark has said so

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News Links: Are Americans really shopping until they drop?

Edward Harrison — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 14:30:59 +0000

Analysis: Are Americans really shopping until they drop? | Reuters One glance at the numbers for the first big weekend of holiday shopping and you might think Americans are flush with cash and spending it freely. But a deeper look at the data reveals it would be wrong to suggest that conspicuous consumption is back

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Egan-Jones downgrades Italy further into junk territory to BB

Edward Harrison — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 12:46:42 +0000

Sean Egan, president of Egan-Jones Ratings Co., talked to Bloomberg Television yesterday about the agency's decision to cut Italy’s credit rating to BB from BB+. The rationale is simply that public debt in Italy is growing while GDP is not. And austerity will make this worse

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Last Days Of Pompeii?

Edward Hugh — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 20:30:00 +0000

What is becoming clearer to almost everyone is that this is now no longer simply a Euro periphery sovereign debt crisis. It has become a full blown crisis of confidence in the Euro itself

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Foreign News: The missing 20,000 Greek pensioners

Edward Harrison — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 17:15:23 +0000

Foreign-language news for 27 November

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Why the IMF thing works for the euro

Guest Author — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 15:12:28 +0000

Editor’s note: the IMF musings would be difficult politically, especially in the US. And any deal for Italy would also have to involve Spain too. However, Perhaps most important, operationally, the ECB lending to the IMF, which then lends to euro member nations, doesn’t count as ‘printing money’ in the Teutonic monetary bible

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Weekend Developments and Their Significance Going Forward

Marc Chandler — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 00:11:02 +0000

There have been several important developments over the weekend which are likely to support the euro at the start of the week, after falling for the past four consecutive weeks and recording a 7-week low before the weekend. However, I continue to expect corrective gains in the euro will be short-lived and subject to headline risks. I still think that the $1.29 year end target for the euro is reasonable

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On the alleged plans for a Spanish bailout

Edward Harrison — Sun, 27 Nov 2011 22:49:00 +0000

“It is categorically not true,” said a spokesman from the party, which is led by Mariano Rajoy. The spokesman was commenting on a report by Reuters on Friday that the PP had discussed plans to seek a rescue package. -Spain ‘will not apply for international aid’ – Telegraph There is an old saying that you

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Sources: IMF to offer Italy a 600 billion euro bailout via ECB funding

Edward Harrison — Sun, 27 Nov 2011 12:48:09 +0000

According to Austrian daily Der Standard, Italy is to receive a 600 billion euro bailout courtesy of the IMF. Note: the article has what I assume to be a typo, referring to 600 million euros instead of 600 billion. I have fixed that in the translation below. Also note that the ultimate source of this information is La Stampa, an Italian daily newspaper

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Sources: IMF to offer Italy a 600 billion euro bailout via ECB funding originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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News Links: The Real Reason Germany Doesn’t Want The ECB To Print Money

Edward Harrison — Sat, 26 Nov 2011 14:30:31 +0000

Here are the English-language links for 26 November

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News Links: The Real Reason Germany Doesn’t Want The ECB To Print Money originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Dollar Stronger As Euro Concerns Intensify

BBH — Fri, 25 Nov 2011 13:00:00 +0000

Euro continues to weaken as US markets reopen from holiday; consolidative price action Thursday is being replaced by a return to trend today, with dollar broadly stronger, EM and “risk” broadly lower. European equities are down, and futures market points to a down open for US equity markets

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Running through Italian unilateral euro zone exit scenarios

Edward Harrison — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 15:15:26 +0000

A unilateral exit would be a devastating event for Italy and the euro zone. Inflation would be high but bank and national solvency issues would recede. If the exit were done under these nationalistic pre-conditions of redomination, most of the adjustment burden would fall on foreign creditors. Italy would become export competitive again and could focus on economic growth strategies instead of ones of fiscal adjustment

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