Credit Writedowns » Ireland

[Premium] Spain’s nationalisation plan won’t work as the banking system is insolvent

Edward Harrison — Thu, 17 May 2012 15:44:12 +0000

The Spanish banking system is insolvent and the Spanish government simply does not have the wherewithal to clean it up. This is the problem in Spain that has come to a head, particularly now after the rescue of Bankia, Spain's fourth largest bank. Unless the European Union come to Spain's rescue, there will be runs on Spanish banks, with contagion rippling outward.

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Norway dumps Irish and Portuguese bonds, Switzerland increases Sterling reserves

Marc Chandler — Fri, 04 May 2012 13:34:09 +0000

The Swiss National Bank reported its reserve figures yesterday and the increase in its sterling holdings are notable and may help explain the its relative strength, despite data a soft real sector reports, culminating in the news last week that, defying expectations, the UK economy contracted in Q1, the second consecutive quarter that the British economy shrank. Separately, Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the Government Pension Fund Global, indicated it has sold off its Irish and Portuguese bond holdings, pared its Spanish and Italian holdings and increased its exposure to Mexico, Brazil and Indian bonds

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European Policy Shifting Toward Growth Before Key Elections

Marc Chandler — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 13:54:48 +0000

ECB President Draghi's support for a growth pact for Europe is important, perhaps under-appreciated by the market. This is not simply a tactic to deflect attention from the IMF's call that the ECB ease monetary policy further. The ever politically adept Merkel recognizes the push toward a growth pact but will not allow Germany to be out maneuvered. While the growth pact may be on the agenda, she will aim to drive its shape. This is the way this level of European politics works

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Steve Keen: The Maastricht Treaty is a suicide pact for European leaders

Edward Harrison — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 12:00:37 +0000

Professor Steve Keen was on Tonight with Vincent Browne in Ireland last week, where the topic understandably was the European Union. The question for Steve was how the Maastricht Treaty fits his economic paradigm, which follows Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis. Below is a 10-minute clip from the show

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Judging by Ireland, Spanish banks to take a lot more credit writedowns

Sober Look — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 18:00:23 +0000

Ireland dealt fairly quickly with its property market bubble by effectively and forcefully nationalizing and recapitalizing its banking sector. They clearly still have a serious problem on their hands, but the nation has been aggressive in addressing the issue of distressed real estate loans. In contrast, Spain's banking system is nowhere close to fully recognizing the full extent of the problem. Not facing the problem however is not going to make it go away

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(Premium] There will be more defaults in the eurozone

Edward Harrison — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 18:54:22 +0000

In last week's weekly newsletter, I explained why Spain was in big trouble. Today I want to present the full context euro zone-wide and why there will be more sovereign defaults to come in the euro zone. This will be a very comprehensive must read post for anyone interested in the euro zone

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[Premium] Daily commentary: On Spanish and Irish austerity

Edward Harrison — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 21:00:21 +0000

I had intended my commentary here to be on US interest rates but i have already written that (silver level) post. So I will refer you there. Instead, I will mention Europe again because the links are filled with European stories

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Disappointment in Core, but Some Positive News in Periphery

Marc Chandler — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 14:28:00 +0000

The shockingly weak euro zone flash PMI, especially the sub-50 reading for German manufacturing, is the main focus today. New orders have been weak and the Bloomberg consensus does expect the euro zone economy to contract not only in Q1 but in Q2 and Q3 as well. Many participants seem to have confused the dramatic equity market rally in Q1 and reduced tail risks with economic strength

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[Premium] Daily commentary: Will Ireland get a bank debt writedown?

Edward Harrison — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 01:33:03 +0000

This daily commentary is a bronze-level post. Today's comment is on the Irish desire to get their tracker mortgage obligations written down

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Chart of the Day: Growth!

Edward Harrison — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 21:30:52 +0000

The chart below tracks the economy of the United States and selected European economies, demonstrating the varying impact of the financial crisis there. March 2007 is the reference point where Real GDP is re-based at

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