The Ugly Chart Contest

Here’s a couple ugly charts we’re monitoring: China’s Shanghai Composite stock index and Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB). Do you think there’s causality here? Remember the “China is buying/hoarding every commodity” story

The Volatility Paradox

Volatility tends to drop when market risk is building up and leverage is rising, luring investors into complacency. Indeed, the lower volatility justifies investors taking on more leverage; if volatility has dropped by a third, why not take one and a half times the leverage? This pro-cyclical dynamic arising from lower volatility in times of increasing risk-taking is the volatility paradox. The main take-away from the volatility paradox is that we shouldn’t use shorter-term, contemporary risk measures when they are very low

Worrisome Signs

Opinion polls and surveys are finding an increasing number of people expect one or more countries to leave the euro zone. Investors are anxious. What is to be done? What makes this so difficult is that there are so many moving parts and possibilities. The way the question is asked often conditions the answers

Curbing Our Enthusiasm, Increasing Our Bet…

We could be wrong on this one and may have too much faith in the Eurocrats, but think of consequences if we are wrong? If the EU fails here, it will 1931 all over again and will put the “Great” in this rolling depression/recession. Therefore, we bet they’ll come up with just enough to let Super Mario do his thing. After that we’ll reassess and look at the long-term consequences, but hopefully 100 S&P points higher

Chart of the Day: S&P500 Finding Resistance At 200-DMA

Looked like today could be the day the S&P500 broke through and closed above its 200-day. That is, before the tape bomb out of the S&P putting most of the ‘Zone countries on negative watch for a credit downgrade. Let’s see how this plays out in in Europe tomorrow and whether the hardliners in Germany say, “… told you so!’”

The chart of S&P500 shows why the 200-day moving average matters and should be monitored

The Facts They Don’t Want You to Know

If I told you that the composition of an average UK equity fund changes by 90% a year, would that startle you? How would you feel if I added that the 20 funds with the highest turnover returned just 4.7% to investors in the 3 years to the end of March 2011 whereas the 20 funds with the lowest turnover returned 16.8% over the same period? From the same source: Out of 1,230 funds across 12 different strategies, only 35 fund managers produced a performance consistent enough to earn their fund a place in the top quartile in each of the last three years (upper half of chart 1). In a universe of 1,230 funds, over a three year period and completely disregarding skill, the expected number of funds consistently ranked in the top quartile is 1,230*0.253=19.22. In other words, more than half the 35 managers were there not because of skill but because, statistically, someone was always likely to ‘over-achieve’

NFP up +120,000, unemployment rate 8.6%, hourly earnings down

Bottom line: the numbers are decent but they beat expectations. Markets are in a bullish end of year tape painting frame of mind, so stocks will rally. Daddy needs a bonus so Santa is indeed coming to town. The Santa Claus rally is on

It’s Beginning to Look A Lot Like…1971

The Global Macro Monitor posted several pieces earlier in the year about the Presidential Stock Cycle. The third year of a first term President is the strongest year in the cycle. The table illustrates that if the S&P500 doesn’t close at 1257.64 (closed today at 1246.96) or higher, President Obama will be the first post-war “Investor in Chief” to have a S&P500 down year in the third year of his first term. It’s also beginning to feel a lot like 1971. History is rhyming here with our own Euro crisis and sovereign debt crisis

NUTCRACKER!

It looks like Santa Claus is coming to town. Maybe we get a little consolidation over the next few days and then the next test for the S&P is 1257, the breakeven for the year, 1265.89, the 200-day moving average, and then the October 27 high of 1292.66. Always can be wrong and always with a stop

More on how post credit bubble fiscal austerity leads to depression

Britain’s economy is a shambles as the negative impact of austerity has been made plain. Now, mind you, it was already clear from a leaked Greek bailout document that expansionary fiscal consolidation has failed in Greece. But now the OECD’s double dip warning for Britain should make this plain to all

Risk Assets Jump, Smell Something, See Nothing

Equities, most foreign currencies and commodities have rallied. It is not as if there has been a great deal of clarity over the weekend. There have been a number of press reports that have been suggestive, but some, like the report that the IMF was preparing a massive loan program to Italy, has been denied

Credit Writedowns Weekly Report, Vol 1 Issue 1: European and US Sovereign Debt

With the fundraiser week winding down, I am going to start making a few changes now. One thing we probably need is a synopsis of the past week’s posts in order to tie the week’s events together thematically. I will make this synopsis using the most read and tweeted posts plus the ones I think are most relevant to what’s actually happening in global markets and the economy.

This week there is a ton of stuff here. So, here we go with the weekly report volume 1, issue