Stock markets are seriously overbought right now.  But, the rally in shares has been bolstered by better than expected economic data and earnings reports.  I first pointed to a rally in shares in March, but I didn’t get fully onboard until April (after all, people like Louise Yamada were still pointing to downside risk).
But, by [...]

We’re not really hard wired for making money in the markets. We use a lot of gut instincts, heuristics and plain illogic in making decisions.  The result is sub-optimal investment performance. This is the nothing new as the field of behavioral economics has really moved to the forefront of academia with Daniel Kanheman receiving the [...]

This comes via Brown Brothers Harriman. I have highlighted the parts of particular note.
Macroeconomic Update:
The economy has slowed along with the rest of the world, as China has become much more dependent on trade as it integrates with the global economy.  However, growth is showing signs of picking up after China policy-makers used aggressive stimulus [...]

I have introduced the concept of a technical recovery to describe the anticipated weak recovery period that lies ahead.  Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt have a different term to remember: Partial recovery.  They see the potential that a partial recovery will end this business cycle, and that’s not bullish for stocks:
Recessions end when the National [...]

Last month I said that June was significant for two reasons.  First, we are going to get our first test of data that could disappoint, which would spell trouble for an overbought market. But, just as important, we need to watch the industrials because there is going to be no sustainable recovery unless these cyclical [...]

This is an interview in five parts via Morningstar on May 28th with the one-time reputed perma-bear Jeremy Grantham who has been sounding much more bullish of late (in a bear-market rally kind of way).  Definitely worth a look.  The five parts run just over 20 minutes.
Part 1: On dipping a toe back into the [...]

Yesterday, I wrote “Some think this is a secular bull – a view I am not discussing in this post.  Others see this as a cyclical bull-market a.k.a bear market rally  I would put Jeremy Grantham in this category.  I would also put myself here, although I do think short-covering has made this rally dangerously [...]

There has been a lot of chatter in the markets about why U.S. equities continue to rally.  Three distinct viewpoints have surfaced, two of which are bearish and one which is bullish.  Let me share those theories with you.
1. Market Manipulation aka. the Plunge Protection Team
In this storyline, someone (probably the famed Plunge Protection Team) [...]

Actually, I lied.  He really is not that bullish at all.  But he does sound relatively upbeat by comparison to 5 months ago.
I have seen Whitney Tilson of T2 Partners a lot in the media of late.  The two most recent appearances are with Tech Ticker where he talked about house prices and with the [...]

This is the conclusion that Wachovia Chief Economist Mark Vitner draws from the very bullish consumer confidence number we have just seen.  To fill you in on the details, the Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index leapt from a poor 40.8 reading in April to a less poor 54.9 reading for May. This was [...]