Here are the S&P500′s key levels

It’s kind of useless, in our opinion, to be looking at the technicals as the market approaches the big life or death event. The EU debt plan is either going to be taken positively, in which case the S&P500 will break through the 1230-1234 resistance level; or it will be negative and the market will breakdown, most likely to new lows. No muddle through scenario, in our opinion

Investor: I have an MBA and keep losing money; how can this be?

This is pretty funny. (Hat tip Scott)

Risk Rally Fades Ahead of Key Technical Levels

Dollar moves broadly higher after risk rally ran out of steam; European stocks slide from 2-month high. Extreme market positioning, technicals and positive macro data enabled unwind of safe haven bets. South Korea’s central banks keeps rates steady, China’s exports slow; Mexico likely to cut rates tomorrow

Gold, S&P and the Euro – Correlations Revisited

The elevated volatility levels have made for difficult times for many investors. To simplify the complexity, there is much reference to risk-on and risk-off. We look at the correlations (60-day rolling correlation of the percentage change) between gold, S&P and the euro and find a more nuanced and varied relationship than many intuitively assume

Netflix does an about-face on DVD rentals

If you are a shareholder, should you be heartened by this about-face or alarmed? At Hewlett Packard for instance, when the board of directors fired Leo Apotheker, markets were not excited by seeing Meg Whitman in his seat even though the board was acknowledging mistakes and taking corrective action

Point of Maximum Pessimism?

We have been structurally bearish on equities since Absolute Return Partners was established in 2002. ‘Structurally bearish’ does not imply that we, or our clients, have had no exposure to equities throughout this period. Neither does it mean that we have been expecting equities to post a loss every year for the past nine years. No, ‘structurally bearish’ is a term we (and others) use to express our view on multiple trends. In a structural bear market, price/earnings (P/E) ratios decline; i.e. corporate earnings need to outgrow the decline in valuations for equities to post positive returns. Equity investors are swimming against the tide, so to speak.

Now, nine years after having made that call, we begin to spot real value again with European equities trading at 9.4 times trailing 12-month earnings and 7.6 times next year’s earnings (see chart 3). A price-to-book value just below 1 and a dividend yield of 5.3% does not exactly make the value story any less compelling

Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! Business Roundtable and Challenger

Since the fourth quarter of 1972 (when founded) the most important thing that the BRT does is a survey once a quarter which provides a forward looking view of the economic outlook of BRT’s 140 member CEOs. One of the other major changes from one month ago was the answer to the question, “How do you expect your company’s U.S. employment to change over the next 6 months?” The response from 24% of the CEOs surveyed, answered that question with “LOWER!!” All in all, the latest report by BRT was much worse this past quarter than almost any time except during the “financial crisis” in 2008-2009.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. (Challenger) is in the business of keeping track of job cut announcements. This past September they just reported that layoffs surged to the highest total since April 2009 at 115,730 or 212% higher than one year ago where employers announced just 37,151 layoffs. In fact, this is the first announced monthly layoffs of over 71,500 over the past 21 months

Russian Currency Outlook Negative Due To Falling Oil Prices

This fiscal uncertainty may be enough to prevent any ratings upgrades ahead, but we do not think the situation will worsen enough to lead to downgrades. Our sovereign rating model has Russia as a very solid BBB+/Baa1/BBB+ credit compared to actual ratings of BBB/Baa1/BBB. The political situation leaves a lot to be desired, with the return of Putin to the presidency next year unlikely to change the status quo. Yes, there is stability, but there is a sense that Russia is basically treading water and relying on high commodity prices rather than making much-needed structural reforms to the economy to boost competitiveness and entrepreneurship

More on the S&P bear market and the central bank liquidity train

Just a few moments ago I posted on the fact that the US is officially in bear market territory. On Twitter, I said that “in Fall 2008, 10-year yields went to extreme lows and then the liquidity train went into overdrive. Stocks rallied, bonds fell.” I wonder if we will have a repeat now. Felix Zulauf believes so

The US is officially in bear market territory

In early trading today, the S&P 500 has dipped deep into the red, with stocks trading off 2%. The S&P 500 at 1076 is down over 20% since its yearly high as predicted. Next stop for support is 900-

Turnaround Tuesday Falls Flat

Global stocks continue to show heavy losses in Asia and Europe, oil & copper down; G10 mostly mixed. Euro group meeting injects more uncertainty about Greece; EUR/USD “death cross” on daily chart. RBA strikes dovish tone, AUD/USD down nearly 1%; China warns over proposed US currency bill

Japan: Yen upside risk on deflation threat

More broadly, the recovery from the March tragedy appears to be running out of steam. Retail sales which surged in the April-June period fell in both July and August and deflation appears to be threatening again. The year-over-year pace of national CPI is expected to slip back to 0.1% in August, when reported in early Tokyo on Friday. The Sept readings for Tokyo are expected to be -0.2% year-over-year