Post Tagged with: "investing"
Tape painting?
Marshall here. That was an impressive rally into the close in New York. Stocks ended up across the board. Yves Smith, who was off the grid today, asked “was there any news driving” the rally into the close or was it just tape painting. Here’s what I wrote and what Ed wrote
Gold Falters
Gold’s 30 percent parabolic move from July 1 to September 6 is beginning to falter. Maybe the yellow metal is just out of gas and needs to consolidate a little or maybe it’s something bigger, such as the liquidity issues in the European banking system
What’s Up With Micron?
Smells like Kentucky Fried Takeout to us. Yes, we’re talking our book, but for good reason. Nevertheless, keeping both hands on the ripcord
Janjuah thinks stocks aren’t cheap enough
Economic policy has become more important than ever in the investment world. And the degree of policy uncertainty only increases as bailout and deficit fatigue battle it out with liquidity uber alles and financial repression as the policy response of the day. Gold/Bonds has been a good play in that environment. Will it continue to be? Bob Janjuah says it will
Connect the Carry Trades
So, our friends, a few questions. Which rates are the result of financial repression, capital flows, and/or stellar credit risk? And what is the best carry trade, assuming you can borrow close to the sovereign
Market volatility and double dip mean re-test of March 2009 low
This extra $4.5 trillion of household mortgage debt is a terrible burden on the economy since consumers make up over 70% of our economy. This is why consumer spending has been so tepid over the past few years. U.S. consumers spent well beyond their means for decades and now that they are so overleveraged their PCE will stay constrained for years. The consumer spending didn’t seem too onerous over the past few years until the Commerce Department lowered their earlier estimates significantly. Also, consumer confidence by any measure you chose is signaling another recession, and any cuts in federal or state government spending could only exacerbate that. U.S. consumers spent well beyond their means for decades and now that they are so overleveraged their PCE will stay constrained for years. The consumer spending didn’t seem too onerous over the past few years until the Commerce Department lowered their earlier estimates significantly. Also, consumer confidence by any measure you chose is signaling another recession, and any cuts in federal or state government spending could only exacerbate that
Chart of the Day: Guess what the best performing asset market is
Here is a chart of the relative performance of various asset classes over the past year. One asset class outperforms the others… by a wide margin
SNB Pledges New Managed Float to the Euro
Morning dominated by SNB’s decision to target EUR/CHF at 1.20; European stocks marginally higher. German August orders slumped -2.8%, first drop since March; US service-sector ISM key report today. In the EM space, China’s economic growth may ease to below 9% in 2012; RBA turns neutral
Dollar Firmer As Euro Zone, Global Growth Worries Still Intensify
US dollar broadly firmer vs. majors as global growth concerns, euro zone tensions pick up. Merkel’s CDU lost weekend election in her home state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Risk assets under pressure, Swiss franc still outperforming; US holiday today
Light at the End of the Tunnel?
Globally, coincident data is already slowing visibly across the globe with headline PMI readings and trade data coming in steadily lower. In that sense we are up against the wall again only so shortly after the shock of 2008/09 and this time, the ability of policy makers to respond is limited. However, I would be wary of calling this another 2008. One of the effects of experiencing a balance sheet recession with subsequent deleveraging is that trend growth falls and thus that the economy becomes liable to more frequent recessions
Risk sentiment has soured sharply in the run-up to the NFP report
Dollar is mostly firmer against the majors as recent risk rally stalls; US NFP is major focus today. Euro zone jitters pick up after troika suspends Greek talks temporarily; Italy also back in focus. EM sentiment remains poor after Brazil rate cut; other risk assets remain vulnerable too
S&P500 Takes the road less traveled
Our post of August 22nd, S&P500 Faces a Fork in the Road, noted the S&P500 faced a fork in the road. One path, the 2010 bullish trajectory bolstered by Jackson Hole; the other, the bearish 2008 trajectory, the result of, say, a European sovereign induced banking crisis. From the post to yesterday’s close, the S&P500 was up almost 8.5 percent generating its “best eight-day gain since 2009.“ Not a lot of fundamental news to explain the rally so let’s just call it for what it is/was, a Robert Frost rally