Credit Writedowns » investing

Has the Euro Broken Out?

Marc Chandler — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 01:30:06 +0000

Given market positioning and the anticipated long-term repo operation at the end of the month, it is tempting to see this move above $1.3250 as a breakout. Is it a breakout

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The Fed Resumes “Printing”

Casey Research — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 21:00:14 +0000

One conclusion from the Fed's actions is that it doesn't care as much about its inflation target as it does about improving the unemployment rate. Thus, it will err on the side of letting inflation rise, if it would improve unemployment. But holding rates too low too long fueled the housing bubble. Repeating the same game will have consequences of malinvestment in the form of new bubbles in the economy. The Fed hopes to restore employment before the negative consequences of loose monetary policy show up

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Intervention Risks Rise In Latin America

Win Thin — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 20:30:50 +0000

FX intervention is certainly in the air this week for Latin America. Brazil stands out as the most aggressive, of course, as the central bank intervened in the forward market Friday and in the spot market Monday

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[Premium] Dow Transports lagging is a warning sign

Edward Harrison — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 13:00:56 +0000

There are still a lot of Dow Theory followers out there even after over 100 years. And the divergence between a bullish DJIA headline number and the lagging Dow Transports is bearish from a technical perspective

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[Premium] Growth momentum shift to Emerging Markets continues

Edward Harrison — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 18:00:38 +0000

Two weeks ago I highlighted the fact that Indonesia has re-attained an investment grade rating, continuing the upward path it has been on since the Asian crisis derailed the Asian growth story 15 years ago. Indeed, we should expect emerging markets, and Asian emerging markets in particular to outperform developed economies

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An Update on Italian Sovereign Outperformance

Marc Chandler — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 17:40:32 +0000

Ahead of the next LTRO at the end of the month, Spanish and Italian bonds may begin consolidating after the large moves seen over the past month. The scope for Italian out performance in the month ahead appears somewhat more limited than over the past month. Indeed, the 5.5% yield level on the Italy's 10-year generic bond may prove a bit sticky. It also corresponds to trend line on the weekly charts, drawn off the yield low of 3.7% in mid-Oct 2010. Spain's 10-year yield decline is slowing as it slips through the 5% threshold

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[PREMIUM]: 2012 an inflection point toward S&P500 margin compression

Edward Harrison — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 13:36:04 +0000

What I have been saying throughout 2011 is that margin compression is going to happen no matter what. The cuts have been made and so margins cannot grow any higher from cuts. It has to come from operating leverage that increases as a result of revenue growth

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El-Erian on jobs: Headline bullish but structural issues remain

Edward Harrison — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 19:14:10 +0000

Bloomberg Television has another video with PIMCO head Mohamed El-Erian, this time on the jobs number. This one number has the potential to set the tone for the short-term because it was so far ahead of consensus estimates. El-Erian cautions about getting to far into the risk-on trade because of the number though as the US still has structural issues. I would add that it is a long way to November and this is just one number. Let's see how the picture develops

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The Unlikely Bull Market

Niels Jensen — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 16:30:46 +0000

This is not the time to be fully invested but neither is it the time to be side lined. We are in a nervous market where great opportunities present themselves at regular intervals. We recommend holding 25-50% in cash or cash like instruments (depending on your risk profile) which can be deployed at short notice when those opportunities arise

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Dollar Mixed as Spain raises 4.5 bn euros in bond auction

BBH — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 12:30:28 +0000

The dollar is currently mixed against the majors and EMs as asset markets consolidate near recent highs. Spain raised 4.5 bn euros in a bond auction the upper end of their desired range. On the data front, Australia’s December trade surplus exceeded expectations increasing to A$1.71bln in December from a revised A$1.34 bln in November (was A$1.38 bln). Chinese markets outperformed the region closing nearly 2% higher, but the news flow was mixed, and even slightly contradictory

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Chart of the Day: S&P500 Up 4.36% in January

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 02:30:54 +0000

Interesting couple of charts on the S&P500. The top shows the narrowing upward channel in which the index has traded since the beginning of the year relative to the wider medium-term channel. The collapse in volatility was the direct result of the massive liquidity injections of the ECB’s LTRO program, in our opinion

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Dollar Heading Lower after Constructive Outcome of EU Summit

BBH — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 12:30:06 +0000

Dollar is heading lower after the EU summit saw 25 of the 27 nations endorse the new fiscal compact. EuroStoxx 600 is nearly 1% higher as a result, banks up nearly 1.3%; MSCI Asia Pacific index up 0.7%. Japanese data showed a surge in December production; Germany’s Dec. job boost offset by retail sales

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Dollar Pops Back

BBH — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 12:30:21 +0000

Dollar is broadly stronger against the majors and EM currencies after Greece rejected calls for direct budget control. Asian stocks fell, with the MSCI Asia Pacific index down 0.9%; EuroStoxx 600 is currently down 0.7%. Economic data saw Spanish Q4 GDP contract, EZ confidence rise less than expected; US personal income

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[PREMIUM] More on the Fed – Obama stimulus plan

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 13:00:55 +0000

My last weekly said the hand-in-hand Fed activism and fiscal activism via Obama's mortgage proposal is bullish. Let me add a bit of colour here

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Euro at the Crossroads

BBH — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 12:30:06 +0000

Dollar is broadly weaker amid hopes that Greek debt negotiations are very close to agreement. Asian stocks posted new trend highs, MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.3%; Dow Jones tested highest level since 2008. EuroStoxx 600 reverses earlier losses and is currently flat on the day; Greek banking shares up nearly 6.0%

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Developments continue to be bullish for Mexico

Win Thin — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 17:30:12 +0000

Given what we see as a basically hands off policy with regards to the exchange rate when MXN is appreciating, we see more potential upside for MXN compared to, say, BRL, where Brazilian authorities are clearly going to work against further currency strength. Others in Latin America are concerned with currency strength, including Colombia. As such, going long MXN vs. BRL or COP would be a good alternative too. On the other side, Banxico has installed circuit-breakers to help boost peso liquidity during times of stresses as part of an effort to prevent disorderly downside movement in the peso

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Dollar Bid

Marc Chandler — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 12:35:36 +0000

The dollar's downside momentum has faded since the start of the week and short-term momentum traders have to adjust. There does not seem to be a precipitating factor. The German IFO was mostly better than expected and while the UK Q4 GDP was off 0.2% rather -0.1% may could have been a factor, but sterling is holding in better. Key support is seen for sterling near $1.5520. Initial euro support is seen near $1.2950 now. The Fed meeting will be of interest of course, but it is unlikely to a major factor for the dollar

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Chart of the Day: Is Gold About to Get a Monetary Blast (Off)?

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 20:30:03 +0000

Watch gold as it pushes up against the downtrend line. Any hints from the Fed of QE3 could send it “to the Moon, Alice!” The Fed rejoining the party and the LTRO2 coming next month could be an explosive mix

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On the Collapse of the Shanghai Composite

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 19:00:00 +0000

Shanghai’s channel surfing Panda bears are speaking with a little higher pitch this weekend after getting their ‘hood caught in a vicious squeeze and reversal. The stock index has bounced 8.7 percent off its January 6th lows after falling 31 percent from last April’s 12-month high. The Shanghai was down 39 percent from its August ‘09 post-crash high before reversing earlier this month. Hugh Hendry nailed it

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Seven Observations about Commitment of Traders in FX

Marc Chandler — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 14:00:00 +0000

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission requires futures traders to identify whether they have an underlying business interest (commercials) or if they don't (non-commercials). Here are seven take-aways from the most recent report that covered the week through January 17th

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First Act of Greek Default Proceedings Drawing to a Close

Claus Vistesen — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 13:30:04 +0000

n the short term, one of the only remaining stumbling block in the form of the ongoing default proceedings in Greece seem to be no match for the ongoing positive animal spirit of the equity market. Only a week ago, we got news that talks in Greece had stalled, but most recently we have been reassured that talks are back on track

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[PREMIUM] Where Europe is headed and what it means for investors

Edward Harrison — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 00:20:04 +0000

This is weekly number three for Credit Writedowns Gold. The topic for the week is really unavoidable because it is all anyone talks about: Europe. Let's be honest, Europe is a complete mess and I believe it will only get worse. The question for you is what will that mean for the real economy and investing. I am going to present my view here

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Dollar Softer on Better Risk Backdrop

BBH — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 12:45:43 +0000

Dollar is trading on its back foot following solid EZ debt auctions; IMF seeks to increase lending capacity. The key issue today is whether North American players will sell into euro bounce; 20dma seen at $1.2875. UK Claimant count better than expected, US production data in focus; Chinese equities lower on the day

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Euro and S&P 500 Correlations Revisited

Marc Chandler — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 13:25:10 +0000

As of yesterday the 60-day correlation stands near 0.78 and the 30-day correlation has fallen from 0.81 in the middle of last month to 0.65. This gives additional evidence of some fracturing of the risk-on/risk-off rubric that has been such an important characteristic of the investment climate

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Biggest highlights from Barron’s Roundtable

Edward Harrison — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 03:54:37 +0000

Here are the comments I found the most interesting from the first part of this year's Barron's Investing Roundtable interview which was published today

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Where are the safe havens?

Edward Harrison — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 22:00:54 +0000

My latest post at Credit Writedowns Pro on protecting wealth in a world of recurring crisis is now up. I outlined eight principal investing risks that I see for for 2012 and strategies to avoid those risks. At the same time, the thought you should have in the back of your head is that these are just the known unknowns. But that there are unknown unknowns which create so-called Knightean Uncertainty and make this a dangerous investing climate

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So what’s the dumb money doing right now?

Guest Author — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 18:42:12 +0000

All I want to know is: who’s buying this stuff in size? I might like the other side of that one

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Protecting wealth in a world of recurring crisis

Edward Harrison — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 16:30:10 +0000

Happy Wednesday. I know the news is 'less good' today than it was when I last wrote you but writing these weeklies always puts me in a more positive frame of mind. Nevertheless, today's topic is about downside risk. My hope is to frame the economic scenario globally and then to offer some strategies of mitigating what I believe is significant downside investment risk

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Chart of the Day: The Shanghai Bounce

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 21:00:05 +0000

The Shanghai has put in its best two day performance since September ’09, rising 5.8 percent. After its post crash peak in August 2009, Chinese stocks have fallen almost 40 percent before hitting their lows last Friday

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The fireworks will start with Spain or Italy

Edward Harrison — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 22:30:50 +0000

Here's what I had to say about Europe on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster on Thursday night. I'm not bullish on the real economy there (but I still expect relative share outperformance due to lower P/Es). The US is having a bit of a data surge to the upside: housing, employment, manufacturing, all of these numbers have been better of late

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Jeffrey Gundlach’s Bond Outlook

Edward Harrison — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 01:00:27 +0000

Here's the skinny on how Jeffrey Gundlach sees the best tactical bond market approach for US-based investors

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Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2012

Edward Harrison — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 13:45:35 +0000

As always, I present you Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2011. He is bullish yet again - on both the US and emerging markets

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A Tale of Two Markets

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 07:13:05 +0000

The Shanghai has turned down this evening after opening up and looks to continue the downtrend. That is one ugly chart. Meanwhile, the S&P500 looks like it really wants to resolve its wedge formation to the upside. After a year of head fakes, bull and bear traps, traders may have lost a little trust in the charts, however. A good employment number on Friday may provide a nice catalyst for some resolution

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Chart of the Day: S&P500 2011 Heat Map

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 16:24:11 +0000

A visual representation of how stocks in the S&P 500 fared in 2011 with Green for gains and red for losses

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Chart of the Day: Market Year in Review

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 19:20:06 +0000

Wow! Who would of thunk it. The Dow the only major global equity index positive for the year. U.S. Treasuries up 15-20 percent, the dollar index (Dixe) positive; Brazil and Chinese equities down 20 percent and India down almost 25 percent. Copper was on everybody’s buy list at the beginning year, finished down over 20 percent; and foodstuffs had nowhere to go but north, finishing flat after spiking earlier in the year and taking most of the political leaders in North Africa with them

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