Post Tagged with: "inflation"
Some Thoughts on Tunisia’s Implications for Investors
by Marc Chandler Through the Middle East, Tunisia’s recent experience is prompting policy responses. Officials seem concerned that the ease at which the Tunisia’s government was toppled could embolden the disenchanted elsewhere. High food prices and mostly soft growth prospects leave many countries vulnerable, especially non-oil producing Arab countries. Several countries have begun implementing policies
Forecast 2011: Better than Muddle Through
This is the first of a two-part economic forecast by John Mauldin published on 8 Jan and 15 Jan 2011. The second part will appear shortly. In this issue: How Did We Do on 2010? Russia and the Roots of World Inflation The US Will More than Muddle Through December Unemployment Better than Headline A
More on The Fall of the New Monetary Consensus
By Edward Harrison Randall Wray wrote a paper on "The Fall of the New Monetary Consensus" which we posted at Credit Writedowns last week. Randy took on the theoretical underpinnings that guided policy makers through the most recent crisis. He argues that the old IS/LM framework all of us economics students learned, but which has
Monetary Tightening In Asia Continues With PBOC Move
By Win Thin It’s all about monetary tightening in EM today. PBOC hiked reserve requirements another 50 bp today, effective January 20, and has hiked a total here of 350 bp since starting in January 2010. This comes after the Christmas hike in policy rates that took the 1-year lending rate to 5.81% for a
Gary Shilling sees 2% growth in 2011 as consumers deleverage
Gary Shilling spoke with Bloomberg’s Tom Keene yesterday in a wide-ranging interview. I have posted the video below for you to watch. But let me say a few words about the interview. First, it is noteworthy that in this multi-faceted interview Bloomberg chose the title "Shilling Says Commodity Markets ‘Clearly in a Bubble’. I see
Resource prices inflation to hit resource producers
by Edward Harrison Brent Crude is still trading above $98 a barrel. And agricultural commodities remain at extremely elevated levels. World food prices are at all-time highs. The worry is inflation in consumer prices that is not matched by increases in wages. Everywhere you turn, you read about food price inflation: in Brazil, China, Tunisia,
Fed Beige Book Supports Cautious Optimism
This from today’s Fed Beige Book survey: Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that economic activity continued to expand moderately from November through December. Conditions were said to be improving in the Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond Districts. Activity increased modestly to moderately in the Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City,
The Fall of the New Monetary Consensus
By L. Randall Wray The following is a paper given at the ASSA conference in Denver this past week for a panel organized by James Galbraith, titled Pressures on the Paradigm, sponsored by Economists for Peace & Security. The Queen famously asked her economists why none had seen the global crisis coming. Obviously the answer
Indonesia on Food inflation: Let them eat garden food
We know that the Chinese have turned to price controls to stop the rise in food price inflation. Everywhere in the emerging markets, where incomes are lower than in the developed world, the rise in commodity prices is putting huge strains on budgets. Some are talking about social unrest, as we saw in 2008, even
Asian Policy-Makers Face Dilemma Of Too Many Targets
by Win Thin Bank Indonesia kept rates steady at 6.5%, as expected. However, we disagree with its dovish stance. Inflation pressures are rising, and tightening should have begun in 2010. Headline inflation was 7.0% y/y in December, the highest since April 2009 and well above the 5% +/- 1 percentage point target band for both
Bill Gross: Deficit Hawk, Bond Vigilante
By Edward Harrison American politicians and citizens alike have no clear vision of the costs of a seemingly perpetual trillion-dollar annual deficit. Policy stimulus is focused on maintaining current consumption as opposed to making the United States more competitive in the global marketplace. Dollar depreciation will sap the purchasing power of U.S. consumers, as well
Brazil Inflation Report Signals Rate Hike In January
by Win Thin Brazil central bank’s quarterly inflation report was quite hawkish, and caught the market off-guard after the decidedly more dovish minutes from the December 7/8 COPOM meeting were reported last week. In those minutes, the central bank put a lot of weight on its decision to hike reserve requirements December 3, calling it