Credit Writedowns » inflation

[Premium] India will be worse than China

Edward Harrison — Tue, 22 May 2012 18:39:08 +0000

When I listed my Ten Surprises for 2012 in January I predicted that China would have a hard landing, defined as quarterly growth below 5% annualised by the end of this year. But I also said that India would be worse than China. And it is this combination that makes me more concerned about the global growth slowdown in emerging markets than the crisis in Europe. This is a big, big story but no one is talking about it because Europe is sucking up all of the air

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[Premium] On Europe’s advancing preparations for the Grexit

Edward Harrison — Fri, 11 May 2012 12:42:54 +0000

The evidence is becoming increasingly clear that German policy makers are prepared for Greece to exit the euro zone. Knowing this changes how one should view the likely policy responses in Europe. In the short term, this means allowing more time to meet the Maastricht hurdle and setting up a EuroTARP that banks can access for recapitalisation. Over the medium-term, we will see treaty changes for enhanced fiscal rules including a growth compact, penalties, oversight and specific mechanisms for a euro zone exit

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[Premium] Daily commentary: On the lower US nominal GDP growth numbers and the Fed

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 19:00:15 +0000

The GDP numbers for the US came out again and they were weaker than anticipated, coming in at 2.2% for real GDP growth instead of the 2.5% expected. Nominal GDP growth was only 3.7%. That is not bullish for shares

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Breaking Down First Quarter 2012 GDP Numbers

Guest Author — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 18:30:26 +0000

"Real final sales" and factory production continued to be supported by inventory building . Governments continued to shrink their spending, and they sucked -0.60% from the headline number. This report shows per capita disposable income is shrinking and that any improvements in consumer spending are likely unsustainable

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Video: Gas Prices Explained

Edward Harrison — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 01:00:33 +0000

I missed this one from Omid Malekan a few weeks back but it's a good primer on gas/petrol prices for those of you who are interested

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Video: Inflation Explained 15 Apr 2011

Financial repression: Then and now

Guest Author — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 02:27:36 +0000

Rich nations worldwide have a problem with debt. In the past, such problems have been dealt with by several tactics, including “financial repression”. This column explains how the tactic works and documents its resurgence in the wake of the global and Eurozone crises

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It’s a Dead-Man-Walking Economy

Casey Research — Sat, 24 Mar 2012 17:30:09 +0000

In an interview with Louis James, the inimitable Doug Casey throws cold water on those celebrating the economic recovery

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China Will Move Towards More Easing

Claus Vistesen — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 14:14:01 +0000

So far, we must give Chinese authorities the benefit of the doubt and it is almost certain that they will now turn from a focus on inflation to a focus on growth. This is particularly the case as inflation has come down significantly in China and while base effects will be an important part of this story, the sharp retrenchment of liquidity will also have mattered

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Interest rates at lows as long Kondratiev wave cycle comes to an end

Edward Harrison — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 18:00:40 +0000

Kondratieff waves are these supercycles that a lot of people have been talking about in the context of the great leveraging that led to crisis in developed economies. We appear to be at the end of one of these waves in bond markets according to some anaylsts

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Chart of the day: What’s driving US inflation?

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 01:30:49 +0000

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in the U.S. increased 2.9 percent in February before seasonal adjustment. These BLS charts and table illustrate what is driving the increase

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