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India: Land of Energy Opportunity

Casey Research — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 21:30:15 +0000

Quick, what country is the economic engine that will power world growth? If you answered "China," you're far from alone. But there's another country that deserves as much attention and better yet, is much friendlier to investment: India, home to 1.2 billion people. To electrify all those houses, power the industries that keep all those people employed, and fuel the vehicles that more and more Indians own, India's energy needs are shooting skyward

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Protecting wealth in a world of recurring crisis

Edward Harrison — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 16:30:10 +0000

Happy Wednesday. I know the news is 'less good' today than it was when I last wrote you but writing these weeklies always puts me in a more positive frame of mind. Nevertheless, today's topic is about downside risk. My hope is to frame the economic scenario globally and then to offer some strategies of mitigating what I believe is significant downside investment risk

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2012 (short version)

Edward Harrison — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 13:54:14 +0000

Yesterday morning, I did the first weekly newsletter on my ten surprises for 2012. Here's a brief version of the list

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2012

Edward Harrison — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 14:12:47 +0000

Welcome to Credit Writedowns Pro. This is the first post in a series here. Let me start this Byron Wien-style and make a predictions list. Wien defines his surprises as events to which investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happening but which he believes have a more than 50 percent likelihood of occurring in 2012. That's how I am playing it too

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Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2012

Edward Harrison — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 13:45:35 +0000

As always, I present you Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2011. He is bullish yet again - on both the US and emerging markets

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On the ECB’s Long-Term Refinancing Operation and 2012 macro ideas for investors

Edward Harrison — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 20:30:42 +0000

The end of year is usually a good time for markets. There was a lot of angst about the European situation a few weeks ago, but there is less of that now because we're hitting year-end (tape painting). Does that mean the credit crisis situation is stable? No, but it has stabilised somewhat. 2012 will be a different story though. I talked about the European sovereign debt crisis and my themes for 2012 with Howard Green of BNN and Ryan Avent of the Economist yesterday. The link to the video is below but let me say a bit more, particularly about today's LTRO by the ECB. I'll try to be brief

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Thoughts on Europe and the global synchronised slowdown

Edward Harrison — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 15:00:01 +0000

We are in a second synchronised global growth slowdown. Moreover, the policy response must be more muted this go round as the public sector is more indebted and has less policy space than in 2008 or 2009. Expect policy inaction followed by fits of volatility due to inaction. This points to a risk off a lot more than a risk on environment

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News Links: Yuan Limit Down for Ninth Straight Session

Edward Harrison — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 02:00:59 +0000

Financial news links for 12 December 2011 including stories on privacy, the European sovereign debt crisis, China and India

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Edward Harrison — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 17:30:33 +0000

News links for 4 December

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News Links: Draghi – If fiscal policy becomes hawkish, monetary policy will be dovish

Edward Harrison — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 14:31:16 +0000

News links from 2 December 2011 include links on the European sovereign debt crisis, the UK economy, the latest on mortgages and technology as well as other stories.

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India getting hit by European slowdown

Edward Harrison — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 15:30:02 +0000

Over the past couple of days I have noticed a lot of posts on the FT’s emerging markets blog about a growth slowdown in India that is occurring as a direct result of the worsening outlook in Europe

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Chart of the Day: Operation BRIC Twist

Edward Harrison — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 19:38:05 +0000

Operation Twist didn't work in Russia, India or Brazil and it's not working in the

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Peak Coal and Jeremy Grantham’s Clarion Call on Natural Resources

Edward Harrison — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 20:39:32 +0000

Coal is one of many natural resources which are in short supply. This article provides one example from India. Jeremy Grantham believes that peak resources is a phenomenon which will pose problems for the global economy in the future. He has written a second consecutive quarterly note on peak resources that this time concentrates on the human suffering

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India’s Economy Hits What Has To Be A Very Welcome “Soft Patch”

Edward Hugh — Sun, 26 Jun 2011 13:00:22 +0000

India is still an emerging economy, one which has made great strides forward in recent years. And despite many difficulties India has remained a democracy since independence. It is a country where human rights are by and large respected, and where institutional quality is gradually improving. As I am suggesting here, the central bank is becoming more and more independent. Corruption is still a BIG problem, but eventually this has solutions. At the same time India is a country of individuals, of creativity and strong entrepreneurial spriit and, to close with a professional bias: India produces economists of extraordinary quality

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The World’s Supply and Demand for Coal

Casey Research — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 02:23:04 +0000

Coal prices are surging ahead even as most other commodities pull back, spurred on by expectations that metallurgical and thermal coal production will again fail to meet rising global demand this year. The result? Record profits for major coal producers like Xstrata, a surge in acquisitions from coal-hungry India, Chinese electricity shortages, and a raging carbon tax debate in Australia amid record investments in that country's coal-heavy mining sector

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Freedom of Speech in Pakistan and India

John Lounsbury — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 05:13:24 +0000

I feel the media in India has become quite complacent about the tawdry condition of free speech in India. All too often journalists can be warned off a seamy story by a tiny exercise of power or influence. All too often, the crooks are able to buy the loyalty of a journalist quite easily. There isn't enough intellectualism going around, among the men and women in the media. Eshwar Sundaresan, writing in Dawn, says that India badly needs more journalists of the character of Pakistan's Najam Sethi. This is one of many areas where India's success in the last 20 years is leading to an erosion of the very foundations of that success.

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India and Brazil: Inverted Yield Curves

Edward Harrison — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 12:41:36 +0000

I am concerned that the emerging markets have overheated and are now reversing direction quickly. Policy rates are still low when adjusted for inflation. But, given the economic weakness now manifest across North America and Europe, the risk is clearly to the downside for now

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Bill Gross: ‘Low policy rates represent an immediate threat to investment portfolios’

Edward Harrison — Tue, 03 May 2011 14:45:59 +0000

Bill Gross: Low policy rates and the increasing negative real yields that they engender as inflation accelerates represent an immediate threat to investment portfolios. Bond prices don’t necessarily have to go down for savers to get skunked during a process of "debt liquidation." PIMCO advocates a renewed vigilance, stressing bond market "safe spread" alternatives available globally, including developing/emerging market debt at higher yields denominated in non-dollar currencies.

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Gold at record high, silver at 31-year high as inflation and negative real yields bite

Edward Harrison — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 14:21:34 +0000

The easy stance of developed economy central banks is driving money into emerging markets and fostering the accommodative stance of those central banks, fearful of more hot money flows or currency appreciation. Easy money in the face of rising inflation is at the heart of the now subdued currency wars. This battle has moved to inflation and potentially to demand destruction. That is why gold and silver are rising so prodigiously. Unless central banks demonstrate that they have the stomach for counteracting this inflation, more money will continue to flow to precious metals

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India Foreign Investors Returning and Data Softens

Marc Chandler — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 13:20:21 +0000

By Marc Chandler Overseas investors have stepped up their purchases of Indian equities in recent days and have reversed the earlier outflows to be net purchases here in 2011. Between last Thursday, March 31, Friday April 1 and yesterday April 4, foreign investors bought nearly $1 bln of Indian shares according to the Securities and

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Checking up on the Consensus Trade

Claus Vistesen — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 22:00:00 +0000

By Claus Vistesen One of the main investment and trading themes crystallised during Q4-10 was the move out of emerging markets and into developed markets. As with all themes, it started as a contrarian misfit moving against the truck loads of capital piling into emerging markets. But it has now reached its mature state, flapping

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Asia Economic and Currency Snapshot For Feb 2011

Win Thin — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 19:15:00 +0000

By Win Thin and his Emerging Markets Strategy Team at Brown Brothers Harriman India: Economic and Currency Snapshot Macroeconomic Update: GDP rose 8.9% y/y in both Q2 and Q3, and is expected to grow about 9% in 2010 and 8.5% in 2011. Industrial production grew by only 2.7% y/y in November vs. 11.3% y/y in

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Indian banks issuing bonds in Swiss Francs, Really…?

Marc Chandler — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 17:00:00 +0000

by Marc Chandler A number of Indian banks have begun issuing Swiss franc denominated bonds, ostensibly to raise cheap funds and meet the demand in Europe for emerging market debt. Reports suggest that this is the first of such issues in almost a quarter of a century. While Indian banks seem well capitalized presently, the

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RBI Hikes 25 bp But Needs To Get More Aggressive

Win Thin — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 14:30:06 +0000

By Win Thin Reserve Bank of India hiked interest rates by 25 bp yesterday, as expected. Reverse repo rate is now 5.5% and the repo rate 6.5%. The RBI said it will hold its mid-quarterly policy review on March 17 under the recent switch to more frequent meetings. Usually, the RBI meets quarterly but the

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India and China: Will the Tortoise May Pass the Hare?

Marc Chandler — Tue, 07 Dec 2010 17:50:40 +0000

by Marc Chandler India’s Finance Ministry raised its economic forecast for the year ending March 31, 2011. Back in Feb it had forecast 8.25%-8.75% growth and today increased that forecast to as much as 9.1%. Ironically, the increase in the growth pace is not expected to be accompanied by higher inflation. The revisions to growth

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Reserve Bank of India To Continue Hiking, INR Should Remain Firm

Win Thin — Mon, 01 Nov 2010 20:38:13 +0000

by Win Thin Reserve Bank of India is expected to hiked rates by 25 bp at its regular meeting Tuesday. Reverse repo rate is now 5.0% and the repo rate 6.0%. This comes after RBI hiked rates 25 bp in September under the recent switch to more frequent meetings. Usually, the RBI meets quarterly but

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Demographic Time Bombs – They May Not be What You Think

John Lounsbury — Fri, 22 Oct 2010 23:56:54 +0000

Long term (over 20-30 years) demographics will favor the U.S. over Germany and China in international trade

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China’s Indirect Resource Grab

Edward Harrison — Fri, 15 Oct 2010 13:00:30 +0000

Here is anther note from Andy Lees of UBS this morning, this time regarding the intra-Asian competition for natural resources with China as the lead actor. Andy writes (links added): You will have seen this morning Vietnam’s state media warning that low seasonal floods through Vietnam’s Mekong Delta threaten to raise costs and cut output

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India, Brazil, Mexico Update

Marc Chandler — Fri, 24 Sep 2010 16:00:40 +0000

India: Earlier today India lifted the cap on foreign ownership of government and corporate bonds. This had been anticipated, but it runs counter to the rash of media reports suggesting that rise of beggar-thy-neighbor policies after last week’s BOJ intervention. Foreign investors can now hold as much as $10 bln worth of Indian government bonds,

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India Booms

Marc Chandler — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 14:30:42 +0000

One key theme has been how well many emerging market economies have held up while the world’s biggest economies slow. India’s Q2 GDP report fits into that theme. The 8.8% year-over-year growth represents an acceleration from the 8.6% y-o-y pace in Q1. Its strong growth and elevated inflation keeps the door open to additional tightening.

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On Economic Boom in India and other links

Edward Harrison — Sun, 15 Aug 2010 13:34:18 +0000

Here are today’s links including a bunch of articles from the past week that I missed. The two most interesting are on India. Topic of the Day: India The world falters, India booms-T T Ram Mohan-Columnists-Opinion-The Economic Times No asset bubble cycle in India: Christopher Wood-Interviews-Opinion-The Economic Times The Usual Fare Spending on Experiences Instead

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