Credit Writedowns » Iceland

News Links: Iceland fared better by letting its banks fail

Edward Harrison — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 15:51:12 +0000

Financial news links for 3 January 2012. I posted this first link on twitter yesterday afternoon and it got a ton of retweets. I have seen a lot of people link out to it. Bottom line: the concept that bankruptcy is part and parcel of capitalism resonates with people. And that's why we are viscerally opposed to bailouts, no matter how much the Tim Geithners of the world want to defend them

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Europe’s Transition From Social Democracy to Oligarchy

Michael Hudson — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 15:00:01 +0000

This appropriation of the economic surplus to pay bankers is turning the traditional values of most Europeans upside down. Imposition of economic austerity, dismantling social spending, sell-offs of public assets, de-unionization of labor, falling wage levels, scaled-back pension plans and health care in countries subject to democratic rules requires convincing voters that there is no alternative. It is claimed that without a profitable banking sector (no matter how predatory) the economy will break down as bank losses on bad loans and gambles pull down the payments system. No regulatory agencies can help, no better tax policy, nothing except to turn over control to lobbyists to save banks from losing the financial claims they have built up. What banks want is for the economic surplus to be paid out as interest, not used for rising living standards, public social spending or even for new capital investment. Research and development takes too long. Finance lives in the short run. This short-termism is self-defeating, yet it is presented as science. The alternative, voters are told, is the road to serfdom: interfering with the “free market” by financial regulation and even progressive taxation. There is an alternative, of course

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Iceland’s Fair Value Vultures

Michael Hudson — Sat, 12 Nov 2011 23:15:52 +0000

The country is now suffering a second round of economic and financial distress stemming from the collapse of its banking system in October 2008. That crisis caused a huge loss of savings not only for domestic citizens but also for international creditors such as Deutsche Bank, Barclay’s and their institutional clients

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Joseph Stiglitz on Iceland’s Crisis and Recovery

Edward Harrison — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 03:19:01 +0000

I would say that Stiglitz is right that Iceland did well in large measure because Iceland was not subjected to the kind of austerity that you traditionally see in these kinds of programs and which is an anti-growth policy. We are seeing the negative repercussions of this in Greece. He is also right that capital controls were necessary (at least temporarily). Most importantly, sovereigns should not step in and assume all of the banking sector’s liabilities. Ireland has learned this the hard way

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Consent Needed for Debt Repayments

Michael Hudson — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 23:16:03 +0000

What people don’t realize is that what happened in Iceland has been used as a test case for what’s happening in Greece and what’s happening in Europe, and maybe what happens in the United States

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How not to resolve a banking crisis

Guest Author — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 17:00:52 +0000

Much of macroeconomic policymaking is trial and error. This column discusses calamitous error on the part of Iceland’s policymakers, in the hope that others can at least try something else

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Was the IMF programme in Iceland successful?

Guest Author — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 02:20:36 +0000

According to the IMF, Iceland has graduated from its Fund-supported programme with unqualified success. This column begs to differ

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Four biggest lessons from Iceland’s brush with national bankruptcy

Edward Harrison — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 01:25:33 +0000

Poul Thomsen wrote an article on the IMF’s blog site about Iceland that I would to highlight. The lessons bear repeating given the economic problems in Europe and the US. The IMF worked with Iceland to stabilise the economy and avoid default after the country got into trouble during the credit crisis in 2008. He draws four principal lessons from the ordeal

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Greece now, America in due course

Edward Harrison — Wed, 13 Jul 2011 19:00:59 +0000

In this interview with Real News Network, Michael Hudson argues that opportunists are using this debt crisis as a grab bag to strip the state of its assets and collect those rents for their own private wealth accumulation. He says what’s happening in Greece is a dress rehearsal for what’s going on in the United States

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Wither Greece

Michael Hudson — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 19:26:02 +0000

Only a referendum can commit the Greek government to repay new debts imposed under austerity. Only a referendum can prevent property that is privatized from being re-nationalized. Such a transfer is not legitimate under commonly accepted ideas of political and economic democracy. And in any event, a rent-tax can recapture for the Greek economy what the financial aggressors are trying to seize. History is rife with instructive examples. Local oligarchies in the region invited Rome to attack Sparta, and it overthrew the kings and their successor Nabis (who may himself have been royal). The sequel is that Rome headed an oligarchic empire, using violence at home to murder democratic reformers such as the Gracchi brothers after 133 BC, plunging the republic into a century of civil war. The creditor interests ended up fully in control, and their own banal self-seeking plunged the Western half of the Roman Empire into an economic and social Dark Age

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Will Greece Allow Central Bankers To Destroy Sovereignty?

Michael Hudson — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 19:00:14 +0000

ECB intransigence leaves little alternative to breakup. Europe’s payments-surplus nations are waging financial war against the deficit countries. Without a common union based on mutual support within a mixed economy – one capable of checking financial aggression – the European Central Bank replaced the military high command. Its bold gamble is whether the Greeks will be as stupid as the Irish, not as smart as the Icelanders

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Iceland: Welcome back to the 1950s

Guest Author — Sun, 05 Jun 2011 02:00:32 +0000

The global crisis has brought many countries to their knees, none more so than the small island of Iceland whose losses amount to seven times its GDP. Yet while Iceland’s recovery has in many ways been remarkable, this column argues that the country’s capital controls stand in the way of further progress

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Breakup of the euro?

Michael Hudson — Fri, 27 May 2011 00:00:32 +0000

The creditors know that the game is up. All they can do is take as much as they can, as long as they can, pay themselves bonuses that are “free” from recapture by public prosecutors, and run to their offshore banking centers

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Should Irish Voters Follow the Example Set by Icelandic Voters?

Randall Wray — Thu, 05 May 2011 19:00:40 +0000

Voters in Iceland have rejected their government’s attempt to foist on them the costs of bailing out foreign creditors. Should voters in Ireland too

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Simon Johnson: U.S. Banks Need More Capital

Edward Harrison — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 14:30:40 +0000

The Vickers report came out in Britain identifying areas where Britain's banking system needed to alter its regulatory structure. Simon Johnson talked to Bloomberg about this report and banking regulation in general. His view is that first and foremost large globe-spanning banks are too large. Johnson believes a 25% equity financing level is the right amount. That would give banks four-to-one leverage (discounting the embedded leverage of derivatives, of course).

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Why Iceland Voted “No”

Michael Hudson — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 03:00:20 +0000

The vote reflected widespread belief that government negotiators had not been vigorous in pleading Iceland’s legal case. The situation is reminiscent of World War I’s Inter-Ally war debt tangle. Lloyd George described the negotiations between U.S. Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon and Stanley Baldwin regarding Britain’s arms debt as “a negotiation between a weasel and its quarry. The result was a bargain which has brought international debt collection into disrepute … the Treasury officials were not exactly bluffing, but they put forward their full demand as a start in the conversations, and to their surprise Dr. Baldwin said he thought the terms were fair, and accepted them. … this crude job, jocularly called a ‘settlement,’ was to have a disastrous effect upon the whole further course of negotiations …” And so it was with Iceland’s negotiation with Britain. True, they got a longer payment period for the Icesave payout. But how is Iceland to obtain the pounds sterling and Euros in the face of its shrinking economy. This is the major payment risk that is still unaddressed. It threatens to plunge the krona’s exchange rate.

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Will Iceland Vote ‘No’ on April 9 or commit financial suicide?

Michael Hudson — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 17:46:06 +0000

A year ago, in March 2010, Iceland’s economy was so small that it did not warrant much attention when 93% of its voters rejected the Social Democratic-Green government’s surrender to demands by Gordon Brown and the Dutch, the European Union (EU) bureaucracy and IMF that the island nation impose austerity. Britain and the Netherlands wanted to be reimbursed for having paid out more than $5 billion to some 340,000 of their own depositors – whom their own bank oversight agencies had failed to warn about the looting that was going on. Iceland’s taxpayers were told to bear the cost, as virtual tribute. In effect, it was to be penance for believing the neoliberal fairy tales about how bank deregulation and “free markets” would make it the richest, happiest country in the world. Indeed it seemed to be, according to United Nations data. But the dream was dashed after the Icesave electronic Internet bank branches abroad were emptied out by their proprietors.

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Too Big To Regulate

William Black — Sat, 11 Dec 2010 19:24:25 +0000

Systemically Dangerous Institutions – the U.S., Iceland, and Ireland by William K. Black This column was prompted by Thomas Hoenig’s December 1, 2010 op ed in the New York Times (“Too Big to Succeed”) warning that we must end banks that are “too big to fail.” Mr. Hoenig is the President of the Federal Reserve

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Quick Thoughts on the Irish Bailout

Edward Harrison — Mon, 22 Nov 2010 14:11:27 +0000

I am still in catch-up mode this morning but I wanted to highlight a few points on the Irish bailout. The first has to do with the European stress tests. If you recall, the two Irish banks tested were Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Bank. Both passed the tests. These paragraphs from the BBC

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Are Iceland’s Banks About To Go Bust Once Again?

Edward Harrison — Fri, 02 Jul 2010 17:16:00 +0000

It seems so if you read the latest from the Financial Times (hat tip Marshall Auerback): Iceland’s banking sector is facing a fresh wave of losses after a court ruling raised doubts over the legality of billions of dollars of loans. But here’s the thing. The Supreme Court outlawed loans tied to foreign exchange rates

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Links: 2010-04-16 Capital flight and amazing pictures of New York and Iceland

Edward Harrison — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 21:14:12 +0000

Links of the day Greek wealth finds a home in London | The Guardian Wary of a Bubble at Home, Chinese Diversify by Buying in Singapore – NYTimes.com DIRTY, DANGEROUS & DESTITUTE | NEW YORK IN THE 70s – ALLAN TANNENBAUM « The Selvedge Yard Iceland’s disruptive volcano – The Big Picture – Boston.com

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A post mortem on the Icelandic banking failures

Edward Harrison — Tue, 13 Apr 2010 18:13:48 +0000

Just yesterday, a Special Investigation Commission report was released in Iceland which criticized the handling of the country’s top three banks and the crisis that ensued when they collapsed. Seven top officials were said to have acted with "gross negligence" in allowing the collapse. An official report yesterday accused the Icelandic government and regulators of

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Iceland Referendum — New Risks, Old Story

Marc Chandler — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 12:41:50 +0000

Officials have been trying to come up with some way to avoid the weekend referendum in Iceland but it looks likely those efforts have been in vain. Polls show that nearly three-quarters of the Iceland voters will reject the deal that parliament had approved that would pay the UK and the Netherlands 3.9 bln euros

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Edward Harrison — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 13:00:00 +0000

Debt sustainability: Not so risk-free | The Economist Spain’s economic stagnation: The zapping of Zapatero | The Economist Race in America: Move your shadow | The Economist Greece must follow Ireland to solve fiscal woes — Cowen – European, Business – Independent.ie FDIC: FDIC Provides Additional Information on its Loss Share Agreement With OneWest Bank

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Iceland downgraded to junk as it heeds 70% of the electorate on Icesave debt

Edward Harrison — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 21:31:23 +0000

The latest piece of big news in the sovereign debt crisis comes, remarkably, from Iceland. The country collapsed into depression after its experiment as an open economy with a large banking sector went pear shaped. After a debt-fuelled boom and a huge influx of hot money due to high interest rates, its currency and banks

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Estonia looks to join the Eurozone in 2011

Edward Harrison — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:44:53 +0000

This comes from Bloomberg News: Estonia is set to meet its goal of adopting the euro in 2011 because of the Baltic country’s work on fulfilling fiscal requirements, European Union Economic Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said. “It is quite possible that Estonia will be in the euro by 2011,” Almunia told the European Parliament in

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Gulf states agreement to enter currency union seen as dollar threat

Edward Harrison — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 13:26:24 +0000

The last I had heard about a prospective Gulf currency union came yesterday morning in a note by Marc Chandler who is the Chief Strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman’s FX group. He indicated that he was more optimistic about a Gulf currency union on the than a Latin American one on the eve of a

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Standard Bank says Greece and Ireland may leave Eurozone

Edward Harrison — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 20:31:00 +0000

The headline at Bloomberg reads “Ireland, Greece May Leave Euro, Standard Bank Says.” Before I even started reading this I was sceptical. The Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard makes calls like this, but his Euro-sceptic views are well-known. Here’s what the article says: The absence of a mechanism to permit so-called fiscal transfers within the 16-nation region

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All bubbles are equal, but some bubbles are more equal than others

Edward Harrison — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:30:59 +0000

Columbia University Professor and former Federal Reserve official Frederic Mishkin wrote a much-discussed Op-Ed in the Financial Times yesterday. In it, he asks Are potential asset-price bubbles always dangerous? He answers this question with a no, noting that some asset bubbles are more dangerous than others because of their connection to debt and credit. I

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Moody’s: Iceland, Latvia and Hungary in “fragile stabilization”

Edward Harrison — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 16:12:08 +0000

Today, Moody’s warned that Iceland, Latvia and Hungary were stabilizing but that their economies remained fragile. The problem is high debt levels, which is restraining consumer spending. Recovery in the Eurozone has been the main aid to stabilization, the report said. Absent this support, the outlook is considerably worse. Moody’s re-affirmed Iceland and Hungary’s ratings

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Iceland fast tracked for EU membership

Edward Harrison — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 23:17:30 +0000

From the FT. Iceland’s bid to join the European Union received a boost on Monday when the 27-nation bloc’s foreign ministers agreed without delay to ask the European Commission for its opinion. The swift decision means that Iceland, which only submitted its membership application on July 17, has already moved ahead of Balkan countries such

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Iceland and the wonders of competitive currency devaluation

Edward Harrison — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 22:34:36 +0000

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has a good piece on Iceland out today at the Telegraph. The main point of his article is that Iceland is emerging from crisis and depression in a relatively healthy state due to a fifty percent currency devaluation. While, GDP will shrink by 7% this year in Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Estonia and many

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How Iceland collapsed

Edward Harrison — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 03:32:51 +0000

13-minute video from the Wall Street Journal. Related stories: Iceland warms to Europe Iceland to hand bank stakes to creditors Iceland’s rehabilitation Related Posts Who is the next Iceland? 6 Jan 2009 Iceland: a cautionary tale for small nations 12 Nov 2008 Is Ireland the next Iceland? 18 Nov 2008 More About: credit crisis,

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Iceland: a cautionary tale for small nations 12 Nov 2008
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Violence erupts in Iceland

Edward Harrison — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 15:18:57 +0000

As this deepest of recessions takes hold, an increasing number of countries are seeing outbreaks of civil unrest. First it was Greece. Later, we saw unrest in the Baltics in Riga and Vilnius. Now, Iceland is experiencing the same. These countries are amongst the hardest hit economies. Therefore, we should see these episodes as a harbinger of what is to come unless government can prevent this downturn from deepening

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Ireland nationalizes Anglo Irish bank

Edward Harrison — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 21:35:17 +0000

The Irish government scrapped a planned recapitalization of Anglo Irish Bank and moved straight to full nationalization. While some may view this as a necessary move to shore up a troubled institution, I see this as ominous news because the Irish banking system is systemically weak and subject to a potential collapse along the lines of Iceland

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