Post Tagged with: "home builders"
The Collapse of Construction Employment
Here’s a great chart from the BLS showing the collapse of construction employment from May 2006-10. No surprise the largest declines are in the four housing bubble states — Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and California. Stunning employment in this sector is down 40-55 percent and one reason why the traditional monetary transmission mechanism is broken — lower rates sparks construction spending and thus hiring of construction workers
Spain Another Pain
Pressure is mounting on Spain. The 10-year yield today is essentially back to where it was when the ECB broadened its sovereign bond purchase scheme to include Spanish and Italian bonds. On Oct 27, the 10-year yield was near 5.33%. Today it is 100 bp higher. This is not a very conducive environment for tomorrow’s new benchmark offering (up to 4 bln euros of bonds that mature in 2022)
Case-Shiller Housing Data Confirm Move Below Post-Bubble Trough
The house price data has been dismal in the last several months. With the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices released today, we have now passed below the post-bubble trough and are hitting new low prices across the country. For data through January 2011, the broad Composite-20 index is down 3.1% compared to January 2010. The
Housing Double Dip?
Well, yes. Case-Shiller data confirmed this for me in January. We’ve been saying that’s where things were headed since the expiration of the home buyer’s tax credit last year. And even last winter we saw a seasonal dip in prices that got us negative year-on-year numbers. Eventually, this was negated by the effects of the
Case-Shiller: US House Prices Are Closing In On the Post-Bubble Trough
The S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices shows that house prices in the U.S. continue to decline this winter. For data through December 2010, the broad Composite-20 index is down 2.4% compared to December 2009. The Composite-10 index is down 1.2% in that time frame. While these numbers were in line with expectations, they point to
Case-Shiller numbers confirm housing double dip
The Case-Shiller numbers this morning were lower than expected and confirm a housing double dip which began in July when both the Composite-10 and Composite-20 numbers peaked. The Composite-10 is down 0.5% y-o-y and the Composite-20 is down 1.6% y-o-y. While housing is expected to be a drag on the economy over the near term,
This Week in Housing
by Annaly Capital Management This was a relatively data-filled week for the housing market. We’ll start with the good news. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that existing home sales rose more than expected in December 2010, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 5.28 million homes. Also reported was the level of
Demand for New Homes in U.S. is Far Below Prior Records
While demand for housing is near an all-time low for the post World War II era, the demand for new houses is at an all-time low approximately half of the previous lows, when adjusted for population growth.
Outlook for Home Prices May Be Degrading
by John Lounsbury Average home prices are virtually unchanged from July 2009 to July 2010 according to the latest report form First American CoreLogic, which provided the data for the following graph from Calculated Risk. The graph has notations added by the author. Click on graph for larger image. The 15% further price decline from
Chart of the Day: Home Builder Stocks and New Home Sales
In a note to investors today, a well-regarded strategist on the equity sales desk at a major sell side firm put up the following two Bloomberg charts next to each other. The two charts reflect different time frames but are from related data sets. The first chart is a long-time series dating from 1963, the
US Data Disappoints–Adds to Dollar Selling Pressure
US data have been disappointing. The weekly initial jobless claim increase has been followed by a weaker than expected ISM manufacturing report. The ISM fell to 56.2 from 59.7. The consensus had anticipated a smaller decline to 59. Weakness was especially pronounced in new orders, which fell to 58.5 from 65.7 Employment eased to 57.8
Horrific US New Home Sales — Reduce Risk
The 32.7% decline in new homes sales to a new cyclical low has actually sparked a bout of dollar and yen buying on risk aversion. The revisions to the March and April time series also point to a much weaker picture than we had. The dollar had already turned better bid before the news as