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Greece and the IMF appear to be pushing for as much as a 75% haircut

Marc Chandler — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 16:00:21 +0000

Greece and the IMF appear to be pushing for as much as a 75% loss on NPV basis, while the banks, many of whom have written down 50% of their Greek holdings, appear willing to accept a 60-65% hit on the NPV basis. Participating in the haircut damages the ECB. It is possible that the loss, even from the discounted levels it purchased the Greek bonds, would wipe out the ECB's capital. Alternatively, as we have point out previously, if the ECB does not take a haircut, it undermines the effectiveness of its sovereign bond purchases. The more the ECB buys the greater the haircut the private sector ultimately faces

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Kyle Bass on Hardtalk about Europe, Japan and Hedge Funds

Edward Harrison — Sun, 20 Nov 2011 20:15:01 +0000

BBC’s Hardtalk recently featured Kyle Bass, Founder of Hayman Capital, a hedge fund based in Texas to talk about global markets and the sovereign debt crisis. Video below

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Hugh Hendry at the LSE

Edward Harrison — Sat, 29 Oct 2011 14:30:00 +0000

This is an interview with Eclectica Asset Management’s Hugh Hendry from much earlier in the year. It is a wide-ranging interview about the global macro environment, comparisons to the 1920s, investing, money management and hedge funds

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Chanos and Gross versus Paulson and Bloomberg

Edward Harrison — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 13:57:59 +0000

Here’s Jim Chanos on the demonstrations on Wall Street which express the anti-bailout sentiments expressed by both the Tea Party and #OccupyWallStreet. Bill Gross, Vikram Pandit, John Paulson and Michael Bloomberg all chimed in too

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“Dexia was not a bank but a hedge fund”

Edward Harrison — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 18:20:57 +0000

If you recall Global Macro Monitor’s post on Europe's Bank Problem last week, the IMF chart showed very well how banks were struggling to wean themselves from short-term funding sources and increase tangible common equity. The Belgians had made Herculean strides in this effort. But it has not been enough

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Trader: “I go to bed every night; I dream of another recession”

Edward Harrison — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 14:56:11 +0000

This video clip has been making the rounds so I thought I should post it (without commentary). The line most people have focused on is the one I quoted in the post title. Feel free to comment

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The European Bank Run

Edward Harrison — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 01:00:56 +0000

What will the Europeans do here then? I am anticipating bailouts, liquidity injections and capital injections. But this is looking pretty dismal now so it is not clear if that will be enough

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Ray Dalio on the D-Process in Europe

Edward Harrison — Sun, 18 Sep 2011 23:14:05 +0000

The D-Process played out in greater initial force in the US private sector. Now Europe is playing catch-up, but more via the public sector due to the restrictions imposed by the Euro. Ray Dalio comments on how he sees this process proceding and how to invest in this environment

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Is Italy running out of money?

Guest Author — Tue, 02 Aug 2011 20:00:05 +0000

Institutional investors have learned how to create and game self-fulfilling prophecy runs in various asset markets. (George Soros understood this and demonstrated its efficacy with his effort to break the pound in 1992.) Indeed, this is one of the "secrets" to manufacturing higher absolute returns if you are a hedge fund portfolio manager - namely, creating and managing such bandwagon effects. It is a plausible simple story with a self-fulfilling aspect to it

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Soros getting out of the game

Edward Harrison — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 12:49:10 +0000

Apparently, there was a reason that Soros was 75% in cash. He is getting out of the hedge fund business altogether, liquidating assets and returning the funds to investors

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“Don’t listen to Hugh Hendry. He’s a loser.”

Edward Harrison — Sun, 03 Jul 2011 00:54:52 +0000

Below is a nice little interview with Hedge Fund manager Hugh Hendry . The headline quote was his way of showing us he doesn’t take himself too seriously. But his underlying message is that he believes it pays to really massage the most contentious issues and take a view on those. If you do have a contrarian view, it will be backed by more rigorous analysis such that you can be better assured of a decent return in down markets. Right now, one of his most contrarian bets is Japan

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Hoenig: Restrict bank activities to core services

Edward Harrison — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 17:36:06 +0000

Below are extracts of a paper formulated by Thomas Hoenig, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, to better regulate the US Financial sector. His overarching aim is to isolate core banking activities that are protected by a government guarantee from riskier investment banking and trading activities

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Another conversation with Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio

Edward Harrison — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 22:00:38 +0000

The last time Ray Dalio conducted a major interview, the global economy seemed to be headed toward a major depression. This was in February 2009 when Barron’s had a conversation with Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio. For his part, Dalio saw the episode as part of a necessary restructuring process. He called it the D-Process. The

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Hendry: May Be Making ‘Error of Judgement’ on China

Edward Harrison — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 15:00:32 +0000

by Edward Harrison Back this past September, Hugh Hendry spoke with Bloomberg’s Kevin Crowley about investment strategies, financial regulation and the role of hedge funds. Bloomberg has just released the video and I recommend watching. Hendry has made a name via his sometimes strident and bombastic appearances in the media. This particular conversation was a

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Hugh Hendry interview on the BBC

Edward Harrison — Fri, 24 Sep 2010 00:15:45 +0000

BBC HARDtalk interviewed hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry, CIO & CEO of Eclectica Asset Management, this past Tuesday night. The videos are below. Related Posts Hugh Hendry ‘I would recommend you panic’ 27 May 2010 Hugh Hendry: “China is Santa Claus” 7 Jul 2009 Hugh Hendry: China – The Emperor has no clothes 24 Jul

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Michael Burry Discusses Investing in Farmland, Real Estate, Gold

Edward Harrison — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 17:33:11 +0000

Michael Burry, the former head of Scion Capital LLC, made a big name predicting the housing market’s decline by taking short positions against it as lionized in Michael Lewis’ book "The Big Short." Here he talks with Bloomberg’s Jon Erlichman about the blame game post-housing crash. No one is taking any blame; He calls it

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The Shadow Knows

Annaly Salvos — Wed, 21 Jul 2010 01:00:18 +0000

From Annaly Capital Management For those who missed it (and we had, until we were tipped by James Aitken, thank you very much), a vital paper was posted to the New York Fed’s website in the beginning of the month. “Shadow Banking,” a staff report authored by Zoltan Pozsar, Tobias Adrian, Adam Ashcraft and Hayley

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McCulley – After the Crisis: Planning a New Financial Structure

Guest Author — Tue, 25 May 2010 22:24:37 +0000

This post by Paul McCulley,a Managing Director of PIMCO, is from a speech McCulley gave at Levy Institute and it comes via John Mauldin. Edward Harrison has inserted the images. They are not in the original. Enjoy. John Mauldin, Best-Selling author and recognized financial expert, is also editor of the free Thoughts From the Frontline

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John Paulson’s letter to investors defending his firm’s actions in the Abacus deals

Edward Harrison — Thu, 22 Apr 2010 02:19:41 +0000

Paulson Letter on Abacus AC1 Related Posts Goldman Abacus AC1 Pitchbook 16 Apr 2010 The dollar rally spells trouble for some investors 5 Sep 2008 John Meriwether is back, risk must be too 22 Oct 2009 More About: derivatives, Financial Institutions, Goldman Sachs, hedge funds, mortgages

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Geithner accuses the EU of protectionism in financial services

Edward Harrison — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 21:04:41 +0000

The Financial Times has caught wind of a letter sent by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to to the EU’s Michel Barnier. In only thinly-veiled language Mr. Geithner accused the EU of financial protectionism for the way Brussels is moving forward with rules to regulate hedge funds and other parts of the shadow banking system.

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Reflation watch hedge fund edition

Edward Harrison — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 01:31:00 +0000

Here’s another bullet point in our ongoing tally of reflation indicators. It’s the return of risk in the form of start-up hedge funds (John Meriwether included). From the FT: Hedge fund launches are growing in size and number after months of subdued activity in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers last year. The

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John Meriwether is back, risk must be too

Edward Harrison — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 21:29:32 +0000

John Meriwether, the 62-year old former Salomon bond trader and LTCM wizard is back for, what is this, his fourth go round. For those of you who don’t remember the 1980s, John Meriwether was the biggest of the ‘big swinging dicks’ on Wall Street, leading Salomon Brothers to huge profits in its fixed income division.

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What is going on with Ponta Negra?

Edward Harrison — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 22:04:13 +0000

A friend passed me a URL now which led me to a few posts over at Bronte Capital and at Felix Salmon’s blog at Reuters about a firm connected to the Biden family called Ponta Negra. T here may be a connection here to the alleged Stanford fraud. I have done and probably will not

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TALF: ‘the great liquidation’ begins for hedge funds and shadow banks

Edward Harrison — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 15:09:34 +0000

An article in the FT caught our eye that makes plain that the TALF (Term Asset Security Program) is a bailout for the shadow banking system (HT Tom). The bailouts for the banking industry continue unabated despite a change in Administration on January 20th. The Obama Administration has topped up bailout money for Bank of America, AIG and Citigroup, three of the weakest 'too big to fail' institutions without putting them through a bankruptcy process. Now, the Federal Reserve and the Administration are set to move on the TALF program which we chronicled here in three earlier posts, "TALF: A bailout if one reads the fine print," "TALF details suggest Obama doesn’t get it," and "A few words from a reader on TALF mechanics."

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Putting the shadow banking system back in vogue

Marshall Auerback — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 13:34:48 +0000

Let's talk a little about the data released on Friday. On the plus (contrarian) side, everybody is talking about the unemployment number and NOBODY happened to mention that consumer credit was UP on Friday, even before TALF. I think we are very close to the bottom. I think that New York Fed President Dudley is screaming to the investment funds, hedge funds, private equity to do these deals with

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Goldman says fund managers expect deflation

Edward Harrison — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 13:49:34 +0000

Goldman Sachs London conducted a poll of fund managers today that had interesting results. The poll demonstrated that fund managers are expecting deflation more than inflation and that they expect the U.S. or Asia to escape the downturn first (and certainly not Europe or the UK). I imagine that funds are positioned accordingly. Here are the poll results

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Bailouts: catching a falling knife

Edward Harrison — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 18:27:19 +0000

This post from January 2009 explains why banks do not increase lending capacity when uncertainty about the level of existing loan losses already on their balance sheet makes them worry about future loan losses. Credit wariness will be the order of the day meaning new credit will be restricted amid doubt about the creditworthiness of potential borrowers. Given the still anemic growth in credit, this is something to keep in mind

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Madoff as a signal to go for “regulation heavy”

Edward Harrison — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 21:11:16 +0000

On a recent Bloomberg Radio with Tom Keene broadcast, Harvey Pitt and Arthur Levitt, two former SEC Chairman were guests. Levitt made the suggestion that hedge funds had once been given the choice of "regulation-light" or "regulation-heavy." Now, in the wake of the Madoff scandal, "regulation-heavy" is all but assured. But, isn't this just

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Law firm confirms the disaster at Lehman

Edward Harrison — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 18:00:00 +0000

Many will suffer at the hands of Lehman Brothers. That is the verdict by white-shoe law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz – a firm I had the pleasure of working with during my previous life in finance. They are very good. Apparently, the bankruptcy laws will not be a protection for creditors as clent

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Massive short covering at VW and massive losses for hedgies

Edward Harrison — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 13:00:00 +0000

I ran across a very disturbing news item today that is getting a lot of press in Germany. Apparently, the leveraged finance community is getting routed at the German Automaker VW. The crux of the situation is that Porsche, which controls VW, upped its stake in the company causing shares to rise. For whatever reason,

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Forced liquidation

Edward Harrison — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 14:00:00 +0000

The recent movement in global markets has me scratching my head a bit. You have people dumping gold and the Swiss Franc in order to invest in the U.S. dollar and Treasury securities. Everyone says it is a flight to quality. I do not agree. Logic has it that the U.S., as a debtor nation

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Hedge Fund Panic

Edward Harrison — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 14:08:00 +0000

If you recall, I have been warning for a while now that hedge funds were going to take a beating. There are many progosticators out there including Nouriel Roubini which feel that many hedgie bankruptcies are on the way. Below is a snippet of a well-written article from the UK site “Money Week” which I

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Hedge funds collapsing

Edward Harrison — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 13:22:00 +0000

CNBC and other media sources are reporting that a number of hedge funds are collapsing under the weight of poor performance and massive fund redemption. Given the market volatility in credit, sick, bond and currency markets, it was only a matter of time before we started to see this occurrence.CNBC reported the following today: Citadel

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Hedge Funds

Edward Harrison — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 16:30:00 +0000

For a few months now, I have been wondering where all the hedge fund fallout from global market turmoil was hiding. Now it seems that the turmoil in the hedge fund world is becoming more apparent — hedge funds are imploding left and right according to the FT. This turn of events will mean one

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Jim Chanos: short sellers are heroes

Edward Harrison — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 17:05:00 +0000

I just watched a great clip of an interview Jim Chanos, the famous head of hedge fund Kynikos Associates, did with the FT’s Gillian Tett (Hat tip FT Alphaville). Chanos does a very good job of arguing hat short sellers are being unfairly victimized by government. Basically, he and other hedge fund managers like John

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