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Greece and the IMF appear to be pushing for as much as a 75% haircut

Marc Chandler — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 16:00:21 +0000

Greece and the IMF appear to be pushing for as much as a 75% loss on NPV basis, while the banks, many of whom have written down 50% of their Greek holdings, appear willing to accept a 60-65% hit on the NPV basis. Participating in the haircut damages the ECB. It is possible that the loss, even from the discounted levels it purchased the Greek bonds, would wipe out the ECB's capital. Alternatively, as we have point out previously, if the ECB does not take a haircut, it undermines the effectiveness of its sovereign bond purchases. The more the ECB buys the greater the haircut the private sector ultimately faces

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Kyle Bass on Hardtalk about Europe, Japan and Hedge Funds

Edward Harrison — Sun, 20 Nov 2011 20:15:01 +0000

BBC’s Hardtalk recently featured Kyle Bass, Founder of Hayman Capital, a hedge fund based in Texas to talk about global markets and the sovereign debt crisis. Video below

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Hugh Hendry at the LSE

Edward Harrison — Sat, 29 Oct 2011 14:30:00 +0000

This is an interview with Eclectica Asset Management’s Hugh Hendry from much earlier in the year. It is a wide-ranging interview about the global macro environment, comparisons to the 1920s, investing, money management and hedge funds

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Chanos and Gross versus Paulson and Bloomberg

Edward Harrison — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 13:57:59 +0000

Here’s Jim Chanos on the demonstrations on Wall Street which express the anti-bailout sentiments expressed by both the Tea Party and #OccupyWallStreet. Bill Gross, Vikram Pandit, John Paulson and Michael Bloomberg all chimed in too

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“Dexia was not a bank but a hedge fund”

Edward Harrison — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 18:20:57 +0000

If you recall Global Macro Monitor’s post on Europe's Bank Problem last week, the IMF chart showed very well how banks were struggling to wean themselves from short-term funding sources and increase tangible common equity. The Belgians had made Herculean strides in this effort. But it has not been enough

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Trader: “I go to bed every night; I dream of another recession”

Edward Harrison — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 14:56:11 +0000

This video clip has been making the rounds so I thought I should post it (without commentary). The line most people have focused on is the one I quoted in the post title. Feel free to comment

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The European Bank Run

Edward Harrison — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 01:00:56 +0000

What will the Europeans do here then? I am anticipating bailouts, liquidity injections and capital injections. But this is looking pretty dismal now so it is not clear if that will be enough

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Ray Dalio on the D-Process in Europe

Edward Harrison — Sun, 18 Sep 2011 23:14:05 +0000

The D-Process played out in greater initial force in the US private sector. Now Europe is playing catch-up, but more via the public sector due to the restrictions imposed by the Euro. Ray Dalio comments on how he sees this process proceding and how to invest in this environment

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Is Italy running out of money?

Guest Author — Tue, 02 Aug 2011 20:00:05 +0000

Institutional investors have learned how to create and game self-fulfilling prophecy runs in various asset markets. (George Soros understood this and demonstrated its efficacy with his effort to break the pound in 1992.) Indeed, this is one of the "secrets" to manufacturing higher absolute returns if you are a hedge fund portfolio manager - namely, creating and managing such bandwagon effects. It is a plausible simple story with a self-fulfilling aspect to it

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Soros getting out of the game

Edward Harrison — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 12:49:10 +0000

Apparently, there was a reason that Soros was 75% in cash. He is getting out of the hedge fund business altogether, liquidating assets and returning the funds to investors

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