Credit Writedowns » Greece

Bernanke ‘Irresponsible’ to Compare US to Greece

Edward Harrison — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 19:39:36 +0000

That's the headline from my latest talk on RT's Alyona Show. Before I send you to the clip, let me explain my thinking because I don't think I was really clear in the video

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Dollar Mostly Softer as Greek Deal Inches Closer

BBH — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 12:43:31 +0000

The dollar is extending its recent losses on hopes that Greece is inching closer to a deal that would ensure the next bailout payment, though the major currencies remain in relatively tight ranges

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Has the Euro Broken Out?

Marc Chandler — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 01:30:06 +0000

Given market positioning and the anticipated long-term repo operation at the end of the month, it is tempting to see this move above $1.3250 as a breakout. Is it a breakout

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Greek protests turn very anti-Germany

Edward Harrison — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:05:48 +0000

This is how it's going down in Greece right now. The sentiment is very Anti-German on the eve of the austerity/bailout decision. The debt haircut and writedowns coming of upwards of 50% is a default in everything but name. Technical default is a real possibility as well

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Tuesday’s Surprises from Australia and Japan

BBH — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 12:30:27 +0000

The dollar is mixed against the majors and EMs but largely remains confined to recent ranges. The EuroStoxx 600 slid for a second straight day, currently down 0.5%; MSCI Asia index holds recent highs. Demand in Greek bill sale eased slightly and refinancing costs moved higher; Portugal’s 10-year up 22bp

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Euro Dragged Lower on Greece Uncertainty

BBH — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 12:35:57 +0000

The dollar looks set to begin the week higher against the majors and EMs over lack of progress in Greece. European stocks are down 0.6%, with the EuroStoxx 600 trimming its 6-month high; EZ banks down 1.3%. German manufacturing orders higher in December; soft Australian retail sales support further RBA cuts

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The Unlikely Bull Market

Niels Jensen — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 16:30:46 +0000

This is not the time to be fully invested but neither is it the time to be side lined. We are in a nervous market where great opportunities present themselves at regular intervals. We recommend holding 25-50% in cash or cash like instruments (depending on your risk profile) which can be deployed at short notice when those opportunities arise

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With heavy Greek exposure, three largest banks in Cyprus now junk

Edward Harrison — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 21:00:11 +0000

Cyprus is not an important player on the world's financial stage but it does bear noting that banking and sovereign debt problems run both wide and deep in the European Union. The latest news underscoring these difficulties comes via Fitch, which has just downgraded the largest banks in Cyprus to below investment-grade status

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Auerback: Austerity during recession is equivalent to medieval bloodletting

Edward Harrison — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 15:30:27 +0000

Here's a good video performance by Marshall Auerback on BNN's Business Day program. Marshall thinks the Greek default deal is actually a relatively good one. But sees a Portuguese default after the Greek default as a real possibility and envisions a scenario in which Portugal and Spain look to extract similar terms. Moreover, the quid pro quo for Greece is austerity - and that makes getting debt loads down harder when implemented during a downturn

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Is the Greek PSI Sweetener Enough?

Marc Chandler — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 19:30:10 +0000

Even if the private sector participation sufficiently high, will it be enough to put Greece's debt on a sustainable path? This seems unlikely and there is increasing risk that the ECB forgoes getting anything but its initial investment back

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Greek private sector involvement: So what?

Marc Chandler — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 01:10:21 +0000

The market has been focused on the negotiations over the private sector involvement in reducing Greece’s debt burden. Yet, the PSI is so yesterday. There are many moving parts and the PSI, which has dominated the market’s attention, is being superseded by other developments, even if an agreement is still not in hand

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On how Portugal is the next Greece

Marc Chandler — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:46:06 +0000

Portugal appears to be headed down that same road. While we have warned in the past of risks that Portugal would need a second aid package, it is only since S&P joined the other major rating agencies on January 13 that more market participants have come over to this view

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Dollar Falls on Fed, Potential Greek Debt Deal

BBH — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 12:30:00 +0000

Dollar extended losses overnight and into the European session following the Fed’s dovish policy stance. Global stocks are broadly high off the back of Fed and Greek debt deal; EuroStoxx up 0.6%, banks up 0.7%. Economic data saw German consumer confidence improve; UK’s CBI retails sale retrenched in January

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Will the ECB Take a Haircut?

Marc Chandler — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 22:30:08 +0000

The ECB's hand though could be forced if there is a credit event, a non-voluntary debt restructuring. Under such conditions, it would be more difficult to show some bond holders (ECB) preferential treatment over other holders of the same bond. This warns of potential knock-on effects of a hard restructuring

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Why I am not optimistic about Europe

Edward Harrison — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 16:30:01 +0000

I am not at all optimistic about the euro zone in terms of policy makers fashioning a solution to the problem. The euro leaders have the diagnosis all wrong. They keep harping on government debt and deficits as if that's the problem. And this has caused them to go all in for austerity without a backup plan. The reality is that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe is not about government debt; it's about private debt and intra-euro zone imbalances

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First Act of Greek Default Proceedings Drawing to a Close

Claus Vistesen — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 13:30:04 +0000

n the short term, one of the only remaining stumbling block in the form of the ongoing default proceedings in Greece seem to be no match for the ongoing positive animal spirit of the equity market. Only a week ago, we got news that talks in Greece had stalled, but most recently we have been reassured that talks are back on track

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Roubini: we will see a Greece credit event, regardless of deal

Edward Harrison — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 18:00:59 +0000

Roubini said that the "probability of a recession in the United States is lower than 60 percent right now." On Europe, he said that even if an agreement is reached on Greece, "there are going to be so many holdouts that then they’ll have a problem" and "either way you're going to get a credit event." This is my take as well. In Europe, the concern has to be more Italy and Spain and whether the periphery can meet deficit targets given the poor economic outlook in the euro zone

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Greece Debt Talks Remain in Focus Ahead of the Weekend

BBH — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 12:35:04 +0000

Dollar pares back some of its recent losses ahead of the weekend; focus on Greek debt negotiations. A leaked draft of the new EZ fiscal pact contains tougher rules; growth sensitive currencies top performers. We, along with the consensus, expect the Mexican central bank to remain on hold; China’s flash

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On the IMF bailouts, Greek defaults and Canadian household debts

Edward Harrison — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 19:39:41 +0000

Below is the link to my latest appearance on BNN with Howard Green and Ryan Avent. Quick thoughts here

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Here’s how much Austrian banks are on the sovereign debt hook for

Edward Harrison — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 13:45:04 +0000

According to Austrian newspaper Der Standard, Austrian banks had 18.1 billion euros of exposure to foreign sovereign debt at the end of October. The debt to which the banks were most exposed were Polish, Italian, German and Hungarian sovereign debt

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Jim O’Neill: Chinese GDP numbers are “a blow for the hard landing guys”

Edward Harrison — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 16:30:25 +0000

There has been a lot of discussion about whether China's growth will slow enough to be considered a hard landing and what that would mean for the global economy and investors. Below is an account from Bloomberg featuring Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jim O'Neill that is more in the soft landing camp. O'Neill also talks about the European sovereign debt crisis and Greece

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Greece and the IMF appear to be pushing for as much as a 75% haircut

Marc Chandler — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 16:00:21 +0000

Greece and the IMF appear to be pushing for as much as a 75% loss on NPV basis, while the banks, many of whom have written down 50% of their Greek holdings, appear willing to accept a 60-65% hit on the NPV basis. Participating in the haircut damages the ECB. It is possible that the loss, even from the discounted levels it purchased the Greek bonds, would wipe out the ECB's capital. Alternatively, as we have point out previously, if the ECB does not take a haircut, it undermines the effectiveness of its sovereign bond purchases. The more the ECB buys the greater the haircut the private sector ultimately faces

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The S&P cuts were expected, a disorderly default by Greece won’t be

Win Thin — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 00:49:03 +0000

With the long-awaited euro zone downgrades by S&P now out of the way, we thought it would be useful to assess just how close current ratings are now to our own sovereign ratings model

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The Sovereign Debt Crisis and Confirmation Bias

Edward Harrison — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 16:00:06 +0000

The myth that Greeks are lazy and Germans are industrious and that this has some significance in the sovereign debt crisis is everywhere one turns. It is false. The issues for Greece are not about working longer hours but are ones of productivity, industrial organisation, and demographics. That won't stop people from spinning the tales of lazy Greeks and workaholic Germans

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Chart of the Day: Greek workers work 48% more hours than Germans

Marc Chandler — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 14:30:00 +0000

While many will be initially surprised by the data, on reflection it makes intuitive sense. In crude terms, wealthier countries typically work smarter--more capital intensively--than poor countries, not longer

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European Bond Supply and Greece’s Trojan Horse

Marc Chandler — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 20:00:52 +0000

European sovereigns return to the capital markets more substantially next week as 2012 issuance gets under way. Between bills and bonds, around 35-40 bln euros will be sold. Maturing issues and coupon payments will cover about three-quarters of the bond issuance

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2012 (short version)

Edward Harrison — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 13:54:14 +0000

Yesterday morning, I did the first weekly newsletter on my ten surprises for 2012. Here's a brief version of the list

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2012

Edward Harrison — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 14:12:47 +0000

Welcome to Credit Writedowns Pro. This is the first post in a series here. Let me start this Byron Wien-style and make a predictions list. Wien defines his surprises as events to which investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happening but which he believes have a more than 50 percent likelihood of occurring in 2012. That's how I am playing it too

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Euro Squeezed Higher, Takes Others With It, Positive Newstream

Marc Chandler — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 12:30:23 +0000

Successful Spanish and Greek bill auctions and better than expected German IFO caught the market wrong-footed, if the record net speculative short at the IMM is anything to go by. The euro has shot up to almost $1.3090 and pulled up the other major currencies and emerging market currencies in its wake

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The Rotten Heart of Europe

Frederick Sheehan — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 05:15:19 +0000

Frederick Sheehan writes that the purpose of this dispatch is to dispel rumors that current front-page treaty talks have any economic meaning. The European and U.S. stock markets react with a 3% or 4% gain after vague announcements, but we are getting closer to a day when the false prophets are stripped bare

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Fasten Your Seatbelts: A Week that Can Rock your World

Marc Chandler — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 15:23:29 +0000

Starting today and running through next week, there is a key event nearly every day

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Credit Writedowns Weekly Report, Vol 1 Issue 2: Solutions in Europe?

Edward Harrison — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 14:35:49 +0000

Below are the five ways now being discussed to tackle the euro zone sovereign debt crisis. I should say that overall, it is still unclear how far along European leaders are in defining a mutually agreeable outcome. Just this morning, I have seen evidence that France and Germany are still far apart on agreeing the details of the plan they plan to bring forward. meanwhile the euro zone finance ministers want to get the IMF involved. frankly, this thing is all over the shop and we won’t know what will happen until right before it does. My money is still on a German-style fiscal integration which would include EU oversight and austerity to be followed by a stronger ECB role and (maybe) Eurobonds down the line. Angela Merkel is still acting as if she is against Eurobonds but we know they have not been ruled out after fiscal integration since even Juergen Stark has said so

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Foreign News: The missing 20,000 Greek pensioners

Edward Harrison — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 17:15:23 +0000

Foreign-language news for 27 November

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Fiscal union is the only real solution

Marc Chandler — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 22:00:34 +0000

A headline says that an investment bank survey found almost half the respondents expect at least one country to drop out of the euro zone next year. This is twice the percentage of a couple of months ago. While such a scenario cannot be ruled out, cost/benefit analysis still argues against a country leaving

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Euro bank funding, collateral, and outlook

Marc Chandler — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 16:00:51 +0000

Bank borrowing from the ECB reach a new high for the year at today's 7-day repo operation. Banks borrowed 247.17 bln euros for a week at 1.25% fixed rate. The key question is what are banks doing with those euros. The answer is that banks appear to be recycling those funds by putting them on deposit with the

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Euro bank funding, collateral, and outlook originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1

Related Posts

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