Credit Writedowns

I have been arguing for several years that once China begins the adjustment process, which I expect to characterize the ten-year period of the current administration, growth rates must slow significantly. My expectation for long-term growth is that it shouldn’t average much above 3-4% annually. This is what it will take for household consumption to rise to roughly 50% of GDP in a decade if consumption growth can be maintained at its historic rates of around 8%.

But I always warn that this is likely to be an upper limit, not a lower limit, to growth The key is whether or not it is possible to maintain current levels of consumption growth once investment growth is sharply reduced. A recent paper by the IMF on the topic is very interesting and not encouraging.

Japan is stuck in a shrinking population trap, and neither monetary nor fiscal policy will adequately solve the problem. Continuing to run fiscal deficits in a deflationary environment will only means that government debt is pushed onward and upwards leading to a variety of possible scenarios as to what the end game will finally be. Reining in the deficit, by raising consumption tax, for example, will probably only make deflation worse with a one year time lag, as happened in 1997, and will almost certainly force the economy into more economic shrinkage which in any event makes the debt issue worse.

Spain’s 10-year bond yield has fallen 108 bp this year. Just above 4%, the yield is the lowest Q4 2010. The 2-year yield has fallen 93 bp this year. The yield is slipping through 1.70%, for the first time Q2 2010. Recent data suggested that Spanish banks have been the featured buyers of Spanish bonds. The Spanish government released data at the end of last week that we have poured over. These figures paint a strikingly different picture. Spanish banks have indeed bought Spanish debt, but non-residents bought even more in Q1.

The reality of course, is that euro zone governments do have to worry about losing market favour. They cannot rely on the central bank as a debt buyer of last resort the way the Japanese, the British or the Americans can. If, for whatever reason, sovereign debt buyers become skittish about euro zone sovereign obligations, the impact is immediate and yields rise. In a worst case scenario, you get a crisis and default as we did in Greece. So the impetus to keep sovereign debt levels manageable is clear. This makes the euro zone different from other currency areas that have currency sovereignty and flexible nonconvertible currencies.

Reinhart-Rogoff’s paper has more serious flaws than an excel error. And austerity hysteria will not go away after Herndon-Ash-Pollin’s review. This is my message to you.

I was on the Daily Ticker with Lauren Lyster talking about Japan yesterday. My view is that there is no material negative change in Japan’s sovereign debt outlook nor will there be in the medium term because of Abenomics. The video is at the bottom of this post. Before you watch it let me say a little bit about why I take this view on Japan and speak more generally about government debt and deficits. Mike Konczal wrote a post that is getting a lot of buzz on high deficits and Reinhart and Rogoff that will be a good jumping off point for discussion.

I have been saying for some time now that Germany is concerned about its own public finances. So it is good to see that Angela Merkel is now confirming this. According to the Telegraph, Merkel believes that Germany simply doesn’t have the economic strength to launch a stimulus package to counteract the austerity now ongoing elsewhere in the periphery. This is significant because it drives not just the adjustment process in Europe but also the perceived need for bail-ins and private sector involvement.

Finally, a prominent “mainstreamer” Keynesian gets MMT. Over the past couple of years, Paul Krugman has got close, but he keeps claiming that MMT believes “deficits don’t matter”. He refuses to cite any MMTer who has ever said such a silly thing. One doubts he’s actually read any serious piece by any proponent of MMT. I suspect he is just reacting to comments made on his blog—likely by anonymous supporters of MMT who might not have got it quite right.

the US uses government money as the currency of account, there is no government budget constraint in the short or long run. Though even so-called Keynesians like Paul Krugman act like there is. The reality is that government can spend as much as it wants because it pays for everything with IOUs it manufacturers i.e. government money. The REAL constraint is just that REAL resource use and real resource allocation. To me, this is where the focus has to be.

Why does the federal government need to balance its books? Where does the money come from that the government spends? Whose income gets cut when spending gets cut? These are a few of the questions we should be asking when thinking about cutting or raising taxes. My view is that government deficits should be economically endogenous, meaning that they are the outcome that results from private sector savings and investment decisions and public sector policy choices. The deficit is not a goal. Making it a goal of policy makes policy an endogenous variable and brings uncertainty and pro-cyclicality into the business cycle.

In November, soon after France and Belgium were forced to pump another 5.5 billion euros into bailed out lender Dexia, the ratings agency Moody’s stripped France of its AAA sovereign debt rating. The interesting bit was that Moody’s maintained its negative outlook. The ratings agency reckons France has poor longer-term economic growth prospects and a poor fiscal outlook. According to recent data, the outlook is still just as dim, probably worse.

The rise and rise of Japanese debt is far from benign, and the dynamic, we are convinced, will at some point become unsustainable. Unfortunately by the time we reach that point it will be too late. Indeed, given that we agree with Krugman that the underlying cause of Japan’s malaise is demographic, after several decades of ultra-low fertility in all probability it already is too late.