Credit Writedowns » gold

The Fed Resumes “Printing”

Casey Research — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 21:00:14 +0000

One conclusion from the Fed's actions is that it doesn't care as much about its inflation target as it does about improving the unemployment rate. Thus, it will err on the side of letting inflation rise, if it would improve unemployment. But holding rates too low too long fueled the housing bubble. Repeating the same game will have consequences of malinvestment in the form of new bubbles in the economy. The Fed hopes to restore employment before the negative consequences of loose monetary policy show up

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Auerback: Austerity during recession is equivalent to medieval bloodletting

Edward Harrison — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 15:30:27 +0000

Here's a good video performance by Marshall Auerback on BNN's Business Day program. Marshall thinks the Greek default deal is actually a relatively good one. But sees a Portuguese default after the Greek default as a real possibility and envisions a scenario in which Portugal and Spain look to extract similar terms. Moreover, the quid pro quo for Greece is austerity - and that makes getting debt loads down harder when implemented during a downturn

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Chart of the Day: Gold reacts to FOMC rate easing

Edward Harrison — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 18:00:19 +0000

The Fed has come out 9-1 in favor of rate easing i.e. capping medium-term treasury rates. The interesting bit is that while the Fed did the exact same thing in August out to two years, this announcement takes permanent zero out to nearly three years. That's rate easing. Some people call it financial repression. And it's gold bullish

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Chart of the Day: Is Gold About to Get a Monetary Blast (Off)?

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 20:30:03 +0000

Watch gold as it pushes up against the downtrend line. Any hints from the Fed of QE3 could send it “to the Moon, Alice!” The Fed rejoining the party and the LTRO2 coming next month could be an explosive mix

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2012 (short version)

Edward Harrison — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 13:54:14 +0000

Yesterday morning, I did the first weekly newsletter on my ten surprises for 2012. Here's a brief version of the list

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John Mauldin: The Matterhorn Interview

Guest Author — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 14:30:47 +0000

Investment advisor John Mauldin explains his attitude towards austerity measures; a return of the gold standard; the euro crisis; and the willingness to bailout everyone that makes capitalism and monetary systems stop working

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Video: Gold Bubble Seen by Soros on Brink of Bear Market

Edward Harrison — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 15:00:17 +0000

Gold is poised to complete its 11th consecutive annual gain, the longest winning streak in at least nine decades, on the brink of a bear market. George Soros, the billionaire who two years ago called it the “ultimate asset bubble,” cut 99 percent of his holdings in the first quarter, Securities and Exchange Commission data show. Betty Liu reports on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg Television)

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Soros explains his comments on gold as the ultimate bubble 15 Sep 2010
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The ABCs of Re-hypothecation in Gold and Securities Markets: What You Need to Know

Casey Research — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 01:49:32 +0000

The downfall of MF Global has exposed yet another patch of the underbelly of the brokerage industry. Practices that are routine and legal – and hitherto largely unknown to most investors – can leave a company vulnerable when abused

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Chart of the day: Hours of work needed to buy an ounce of gold

Global Macro Monitor — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 16:38:05 +0000

Central banks have done a great job at driving up the price of gold but a horrible job at creating wage inflation. If it now takes 88 hours to buy an ounce of gold versus 20 hours in 2000, hasn’t that grossly deflated real wages in a strict monetary sense? Just askin’

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Running through Italian default scenarios

Edward Harrison — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 15:30:47 +0000

The most important debate of our lifetimes is now ongoing. The question: Should the ECB “write the check’ for the euro area national governments? In thinking about the answer to this all-important question, I prefer to shift the focus by changing the verb “should” to “will”. Answering this slightly different question is much more important than answering the first question for you as an investor, a business person and as a worker. If the ECB writes the check, the economic and market outcomes are vastly different than if they do not. Your personal outlook as an investor, business person or worker will change dramatically based upon this one policy choice. The right question to ask then is: Will the ECB “write the check’ for the euro area national governments

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This is why people are buying gold now

Edward Harrison — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 13:00:03 +0000

Right now everyone is looking at monetisation and thinking this will save the day. You saw the Lakshman Achuthan video; clearly punters don’t think the US is going to double dip. Buy gold then. Maybe they are right, but I see weakness ahead in

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Is Iran About to Get Hot?

Global Macro Monitor — Sun, 06 Nov 2011 14:30:34 +0000

Here is something brewing off radar. We’re wondering if this is a factor as to why crude is bid and gold is coming back

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Your #1 Gold Risk

Casey Research — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 21:00:22 +0000

Similar to holding a diversified portfolio at a bank without checking the institution's solvency, many investors keep their entire stash of precious metals inside one political system without considering the potential trap they've set for themselves. While storing some of your gold outside your home country is not a panacea, it does offer one important thing: another layer of protection

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Gold Breaks Out — Print Away!

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 23:47:47 +0000

Gold is up big today and trading like the monetary printing presses are ready to kick into overdrive. We believe the recent Fed speak about QE3, possible BofJ intervention to weaken the yen, and growing expectations that tomorrow’s announcement by by the EU may fall short and force the ECB to monetize bond purchases are contributing to the move. In addition, given the recent PMI data out of Europe, the ECB may be forced to ease sooner rather than later and even hearing hints and rumors floating around the ether of China easing

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Investor: I have an MBA and keep losing money; how can this be?

Edward Harrison — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 16:00:26 +0000

This is pretty funny. (Hat tip Scott)

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Gold, S&P and the Euro – Correlations Revisited

Marc Chandler — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 21:12:04 +0000

The elevated volatility levels have made for difficult times for many investors. To simplify the complexity, there is much reference to risk-on and risk-off. We look at the correlations (60-day rolling correlation of the percentage change) between gold, S&P and the euro and find a more nuanced and varied relationship than many intuitively assume

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Point of Maximum Pessimism?

Niels Jensen — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 13:22:25 +0000

We have been structurally bearish on equities since Absolute Return Partners was established in 2002. ‘Structurally bearish’ does not imply that we, or our clients, have had no exposure to equities throughout this period. Neither does it mean that we have been expecting equities to post a loss every year for the past nine years. No, ‘structurally bearish’ is a term we (and others) use to express our view on multiple trends. In a structural bear market, price/earnings (P/E) ratios decline; i.e. corporate earnings need to outgrow the decline in valuations for equities to post positive returns. Equity investors are swimming against the tide, so to speak. Now, nine years after having made that call, we begin to spot real value again with European equities trading at 9.4 times trailing 12-month earnings and 7.6 times next year’s earnings (see chart 3). A price-to-book value just below 1 and a dividend yield of 5.3% does not exactly make the value story any less compelling

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The Golden Constant

Frederick Sheehan — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 12:38:15 +0000

The following is a brief outline of "Gold and the 'Flations," published in the April 2005 Gloom, Boom & Doom Report. General talk has it that gold is a hedge against inflation. We might take this a step further and conclude that a unit of gold will purchase a constant basket of goods when prices are inflating. Standard advice does not include gold in one's asset mix during non-inflationary periods. The evidence presents a more complicated picture

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Felix Zulauf: expect more market turmoil than in 2008

Edward Harrison — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 02:25:16 +0000

In an interview from late September, Zulauf tells James Turk that he is very much a eurosceptic. The external imbalances in the euro zone make the euro an untenable currency union. Like David Blanchflower, Zulauf remarks how markets are leading European policymakers. Zulauf believes that this is what is behind the European bank run now in progress and that this run will eventually put the entire European banking system at risk

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Faber: Market May Fall Below 1,100

Edward Harrison — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 10:00:54 +0000

Marc Faber told CNBC yesterday that he thinks the S&P500 could fall to as low as 1010 by the end of the ongoing sell-off. Faber also believes gold could fall. However, he believes both markets are oversold and is more keen to buy gold on a rebound than equities

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Gold and the Three McBears

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 14:48:16 +0000

Now the market must contend with three macro bears: 1) how much and how Asia slows; 2) the Eurozone debt crisis; and 3) the slowing U.S. economy and employment/political problem. Continued volatility and 1101, 1101, 1101 on the S&P500! Finally, we warned last week gold could take a big swan dive and $1,700 was where the “river meets the waterfall.” The chart below shows the yellow metal hasn’t been below its 200-day moving average in more than 2 1/2 years. The power of the rally has been stunning. We now think gold is set to test its 200-day moving average at $1,527, which is the level we will take a shot at getting long again

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Apple Closes Over $400

Global Macro Monitor — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 23:45:09 +0000

One defining characteristic of the current market is time compression. What used to take weeks and months now happens in hours, if not seconds. It’s gotta be the robots and algo trading, no? Do you feel a little like the modern day version of John Henry, The Steel Driving Man or was that John Henry, The Currency Driving Man

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Apple Breaks Out, Gold Breaks Below Support

Global Macro Monitor — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 14:45:10 +0000

A quick update to our recent posts on Apple and gold. Apple has broken out of its bullish pennant formation and looks poised to take out the July 26th all time high of $404.50. This is a chip shot from current levels and could happen with a one day move. On the other side, gold broke support at 1,793 and now looks ready to test the 1,750 level

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The Dollar and Gold

Marc Chandler — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 14:30:56 +0000

One theme that has captured the imagination of many investors has been the debasement of paper money and the dramatic rise in gold prices. Gold has risen 27.6% in dollar terms thus far this year (24% in euro terms, which reflects 3% euro appreciation net-net against the dollar). However, the funding pressures in Europe seem to be reversing this relationship

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Bianco: An 1100 S&P would look expensive if we have a recession

Edward Harrison — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 12:30:36 +0000

Economists are telling us that the economy is decelerating rather quickly. What does that mean for stocks, in either a recession or no-recession scenario? Jim Bianco was on Bloomberg Television yesterday with some insightful comments about stock valuations and economic cycles

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Gold Falters

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 00:51:57 +0000

Gold’s 30 percent parabolic move from July 1 to September 6 is beginning to falter. Maybe the yellow metal is just out of gas and needs to consolidate a little or maybe it’s something bigger, such as the liquidity issues in the European banking system

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Janjuah thinks stocks aren’t cheap enough

Edward Harrison — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 19:21:06 +0000

Economic policy has become more important than ever in the investment world. And the degree of policy uncertainty only increases as bailout and deficit fatigue battle it out with liquidity uber alles and financial repression as the policy response of the day. Gold/Bonds has been a good play in that environment. Will it continue to be? Bob Janjuah says it will

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Chart of the Day: Guess what the best performing asset market is

Edward Harrison — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 19:00:11 +0000

Here is a chart of the relative performance of various asset classes over the past year. One asset class outperforms the others… by a wide margin

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Is Resource Nationalism on the Rise?

Casey Research — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 08:00:12 +0000

According to an Ernst and Young (E&Y) report Business Risks Facing Mining and Metals 2011-2012, resource nationalism is the biggest risk companies currently face

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The lessons of the crisis of 40 years ago

Guest Author — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 00:00:53 +0000

Andy Lees takes a sceptical view of fiat currency and the excess credit it has created over the past forty years and uses a few charts to demonstrate his points

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Pegs, Pomp, and Direct Democracy

Casey Research — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 15:30:10 +0000

In characteristic form, the currency traders and those who trade in what is dubbed "financial news" woke up last week and discovered, à la Rip Van Winkle, that the Swiss franc was a haven currency charging higher. Never you mind that it has been on a steady carabiner-and-rope-assisted climb for well over a year. The experts missed all the action and profit of the ascent until the flag was nearly planted at the summit - a sure sign of an interim top

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What the Germans are reading

Global Macro Monitor — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 16:30:00 +0000

The front page of Germany’s top selling newspaper, Bild, “has forsaken its usual topless model in favor of gold bars… which the paper is giving away all day."

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Gold is the New Deutsche Mark

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 02:16:38 +0000

We’re not taking a victory lap here but think gold is now in the midst of a massive repricing as a legit global currency/store of value. Central banks are buying even at prices north of $1,500 per ounce. These are strong hands and not the flippers that can take it down $200 in a nanosecond. The main risk we see to gold in the short term is that its gains could be tapped for margin calls to cover bad positions by, say, the levered set or other stressed institutional investors. A spike in real short term interest rates due to sovereign credit concerns in the major countries, for example, is another major risk, but we don’t this as an issue for sometime

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Change We Can Believe In

Guest Author — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 14:00:00 +0000

We repeat: the “debt problem” is a currency problem and the currency must and will collapse. The global monetary system exists at the pleasure of the Fed, which legally exists at the pleasure of Congress, which as we have learned only has the political will to control the Fed at the pleasure of the Fed’s shareholder banks. It is the Fed and nothing else that determines the solvency of Treasury. Analogously, it is the Fed that ensures the ultimate solvency of the fractionally-reserved banking system – the system that shorts dollars via perceived “lending” today and covers those dollars once devalued as the Fed creates them tomorrow. Ultimately, Congress, the Fed and Wall Street will have to answer to the masses that buy milk and pay and staff its military.

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Italy calls emergency meeting to deal with European debt crisis

Edward Harrison — Tue, 02 Aug 2011 16:00:09 +0000

The Telegraph is reporting that the euro zone sovereign debt crisis has reached such a critical flash point that Italy has called an emergency meeting. In Spain, the Prime Minister has delayed his summer holidays to deal with the fallout

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