In my most recent post, I gave a fairly comprehensive retrospective of the year that was. Near the end of that post, I listed a number of posts I wrote in Octobr and November which point to how I see 2009 shaping up. Let me give you a more direct assessment here. I will finish it off with my top ten predictions for 2009.

I want to make a brief statement about analysis, prognostications and this global recession. When I began this site nine months ago, my focus was clearly on the downside scenario. Now, while I did believe policy makers were underestimating the threat of economic calamity, I must admit that I was optimistic about the potential outcomes. And I am still optimistic today that we can overcome the major hurdles we face. However, we must always prepare for the worst, even while we hope for the best. This is why I am still focused on the downside scenario — because I believe that complacency is still much too high regarding how quickly things could unravel.

It’s interesting to hear a chief executive of a major Wall Street firm speak openly and on the record about the economy. So, it’s refreshing to watch this video and see Jamie Dimon’s take on a number of economic issues ncluding house prices and infrastructure spending.

A few days ago, I showed you a video from a long session he did with Erin Burnett of CNBC. This is another segment of that session. On the whole, he sounds very reasonable. Take a look.

Jamie Dimon on the Economy

I am certainly of the view that a considerable worsening of the recession is baked in the cake for 2009. But will fiscal and monetary stimulus prevent worst case scenarios? I certainly hope so, as I have laid out in recent posts.
But, don’t take my word for it. The RGE Monitor headed [...]

This is the absurd thinking of economists. Australia has a 40% chance of recession next year. What does that even mean? If you asked me, I would say the chances of recession in Australia are 100%. You have a slowing property market, financial sector turmoil, a falling currency, plunging commodity prices and [...]

At this stage in the financial crisis, it is difficult to discern exactly where things are headed. However, let me give a general road map of how I see things shaping up.
The credit crisis started in August 2007 as a result of the dual realization amongst investors and global financial institutions alike that large [...]

For my German-speaking readers, I have found an excellent country-by-country look at inflation and its effect and outcome in the Financial Times Deutschland. Specific countries covered are the Euro-Zone as a whole, Germany, Belgium the UK, Russia, the US, Japan, China, and Zimbabwe.
The series is called “Wo die Inflation grassiert.“
Enjoy.
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Für meine deutschsprachigen Leser habe ich [...]

UPDATE: 1 APR 2009: I am re-posting this post prepared in November before the last G-20 summit. It called for a new world order centered around a new monetary system. Clearly this idea is gaining currency as it is a chief aim of the Chinese going forward. Is it a likely outcome of the G-20 meeting now? No. Here I argue that only true economic turmoil and depression will bring people to the table.