SharePaul Krugman has noticed that trade has absolutely collapsed with this economic downturn. It is worse than the Great Depression.
Question: is this aiding global re-balancing?
Here are two data points from Europe today which lead to that question.
The BBC reports on Germany:
Germany’s trade surplus fell 43% in August after a drop in exports from Europe’s biggest [...]

ShareEarlier today we learned that the Singapore PMI was much weaker than expected for September 2009, coming in at 50.6 versus 54.4 for August. While this demonstrates that the manufacturing sector there is still rising, it is doing so just barely.  This was the lowest reading since April and should be seen as a clear [...]

ShareFor the last few months I have been casting around looking for bullish data points as counterfactuals to my more bearish long-term outlook. I have found some, but not enough. If you recall, early this year, I stated that we are in depression, making the case for the ongoing downturn as a depression with a [...]

ShareMarshall Auerback here. This is a cross-post from an article I wrote at the finance site New Deal 2.0, a one-stop-shop for current news, sharp analysis and potential solutions of the country’s fiscal crisis.
We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again. As a matter of national accounting, the domestic private sector cannot increase savings [...]

ShareThis is how the famed investor and Chairman of Tiger Management began an interview with CNBC yesterday. Yes, the recession is probably over, he says.  But, in his view there is likely to be problems going forward because the U.S. has so much debt.
The money quote: “It’s almost Armageddon if the Chinese and Japanese don’t [...]

ShareIn what is shaping up to be a common occurrence at these global meetings, protesters are shaking things up.  My understanding, however, is that there are more police on hand than protesters.  Rubber bullets, pepper spray and tear gas have been used.
Below is a five-minute video showing the mood surrounding the G-20 summit in Pittsburgh.
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ShareI just finished reading a Financial Times article about the likely coordinated global policy solutions to emerge from the upcoming G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh.  It does not sound like there is a huge amount of consensus. Indeed, it sounds like there is a lot of finger pointing regarding what the true causes of the financial [...]

ShareIt has been my thesis for some time that we are seeing a secular change in consumption patterns in the United States.  This will have grave implications for a world economy used to seeing the American consumer as an economic growth engine and consumer of first choice. Retail sales in the United States have fallen [...]

ShareI have been taking a bit of a break as my trip to the Ontario’s Lake Country winds down.  It’s a beautiful place.  But, as Marshall Auerback and I were lamenting, it has become the Hamptons of Canada as everyone from Toronto is up here for the summer holidays.
But, it has been relaxing. Since I [...]

ShareI have highlighted comments by famed Columbia University economist Jagdish Bhagwati before (see “Jagdish Bhagwati: Obama is a protectionist”).  Bhagwati has since gotten with the program and sees Obama in a much more favourable light.  However, he is sceptical because Obama has not said boo about free trade.
Now Bhagwati is turning his attention away [...]