Mike Mayo: writedowns worse than the Great Depression

Despite the fact that I can envisage a cyclical upturn this Winter, the menace of bank writedowns is ever-present. One analyst who has been particularly prescient on warning on this front is Mike Mayo, now working at Calyon. Below David Faber of CNBC talks about a recent prediction by Mayo that writedowns will be even

Spain’s savings banks may have 40 billion in writedowns

We should consider Spain one of the four original bubble markets where residential property markets soared to ridiculous levels during the housing bubble.  The bubble has now popped and those countries, the U.K., the U.S., Ireland and Spain, are reeling.  To be sure, there were bubbles in other markets as well. However, these four markets

A few comments about mark-to-market

Because I received a message via e-mail that my previous post on mark-to-market was misleading, I thought I would clarify what is happening with FAS 157 and provide some good links. The long and short of the rule is it gives more specific guidance as to when a market is distressed and an asset must

More credit card writedowns are coming

Of course you know I think credit cards are going to produce a tsunami of writedowns, right? Things are looking more and more like that tsunami is right around the corner: Credit card writedowns soared to record levels in February, representing an all-time high in the 20-year history of the Moody’s Credit Card Index, as

Case-Shiller offers up another depressing spectacle in U.S. housing

You might have thought house price declines were slowing. I certainly had hoped so. The latest data from January 2009 from the S&P/Case-Shiller index suggests this is wishful thinking as year-on-year declines hit another record of 19%. The decline was not only steep, but very broad-based. Data through January 2009, released today by Standard &

Nationwide: Press release on Dunfermline acquisition

Dunfermline, the largest uilding society in Scotland was forced into the hands of the Nationwide.  This happened only after the U.K. government was forced to pony up 1.6 billion pounds – not the best of news for Gordon Brown before a major world summit. As the Times Online says: The state-backed rescue brings to six

More problems at three European financial institutions

This weekend has seen two major European financial institutions forced into the hands of government and a third on the verge of major new asset writedowns and job cuts. The events highlight the fragility of European banking and the need for concrete solutions at the upcoming G-20 summit in London. First, in the UK, you

Auto Loan ABS market best of the bunch

This comes via Angus Robertson of Research Recap: The performance of auto loan securities has been mixed, but Standard & Poor’s Credit Research points out that overall ratings on the ABS have been remarkably stable in spite of the recession. In a new report on the sector, S & P says that delinquencies and write-downs

Moody’s anticipates huge increase in leveraged loan defaults

This comes via Angus Robertson at Research Recap. Just as the RMBS post yesterday confirmed, moe writedowns are coming in other credit classes: In a trend likely to accelerate in 2009, the default rate on bank loans to speculative-grade corporations rose sharply in 2008 and recovery rates on leveraged loans dropped over the same period,

It’s the writedowns, stupid

Today, I want to make the case for seeing writedowns as central to this global downturn. To do so, we need to rewind and compare what is going on today with what we have experienced in the past. Drawing on this comparison, I can demonstrate that traditional policy tools are likely to be ineffective today. Moreover, the present course of action will also prove inadequate. Other more aggressive means must be applied in order to ensure a more stable banking system and a path to recovery. Likely remedies will include a reorganization of large swathes of the U.S. banking system.

European banks have hands out for more capital

While most people have their attention tuned to the spectacle over at AIG, financial institutions in Europe are having their own difficulties. In the last day, I have seen news stories of European banks looking for ways to raise capital in order to shore up their weakening balance sheets. Let me focus on three stories in particular: Nordea, Bank Austria and

Cramdowns are coming your way

Below is an interview with an expert on the issue of mortgage cramdowns. Basically, this issue is all about debt forgiveness for borrowers and writedowns for lenders. Lenders do not like cramdowns for that reason. See below for a view on cramdowns from Paul Van Valkenburg of the Mortgage Industry Advisory Corp.

Warning: you should expect him to have a negative bias given who he works for. I actually like cramdowns. Van Valkenburg is looking at this from an investor’s perspective and wants senior creditors not to be negatively impacted by the coming cramdown legislation. Nevertheless, I am posting this video because it is informative as to the impacts on mortgage-backed securities, mortgage servicing and housing