Credit Writedowns » financial statements

Financial Shock and Awe in China

Edward Harrison — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 14:00:38 +0000

To sum up: Non-performing loans look to be a full 10% of Chinese GDP. That’s high. The Chinese government is confronting this writedown problem head-on. While a number of analysts have opinions on the measures just taken, it is far from clear what the effect will be on China and the global economy

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Westwood’s Alpert Says US Home Prices Will Fall Further

Edward Harrison — Wed, 24 Nov 2010 04:17:33 +0000

Dan Alpert, managing partner at Westwood Capital, thinks that banks are under-reserving and that this will come back to haunt them when house prices fall in "the final leg down" of the housing crisis. That is the right view if you read between the lines of the last post from Annaly Capital Management. I am

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How far will US home prices fall from their peak? 22 Jun 2008
UK home prices fall in June 23 Jun 2008
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Does History Repeat, Rhyme or Just Have Coincidences?

John Lounsbury — Fri, 20 Aug 2010 20:00:52 +0000

This week the following graph from http://www.chartoftheday.com http://www.chartoftheday.com/ has been annotated by the author to highlight similarities of the current era for stocks to a corporate earnings pattern traced out nearly a century ago. Annotation by John B. Lounsbury August 20, 2010 The time scale of the current era (right hand oval) is compressed relative

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Chart of the day: bear market history 7 Jul 2008
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RBS paying large bonuses while Commerzbank bankers get zero

Edward Harrison — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 13:52:06 +0000

Over the past few days, a number of major European banks have announced earnings results. Two of the most dismal results were registered at the British company Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and at Germany’s Commerzbank. However, the similarity ends there because, while Commerzbank investment bankers received no bonus, the bankers at government-controlled RBS received

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No one gets a bonus at Commerzbank and no dividend either 18 Feb 2009
Zero bonuses at Goldman 21 Jan 2010
Commerzbank gobbles up Dresdner 31 Aug 2008

Greek financial debacle threatens Swiss banks

Edward Harrison — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 00:40:17 +0000

There are a lot of interlocking threads in the Greek saga. One consistent theme that ties all of the different threads together is the fragility of complex systems. In our globalized and complex world of finance and banking, every major actor has innumerable ties to other major actors such that devastating collapses in one entity

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New Crisis Threatens Healthy Banks 23 Jun 2008
Swiss citizens think a large Swiss bank will fail 16 Apr 2009
Austrian banks have emerging-market financial exposure that is 70% of GDP 5 Jan 2009

The coming wave of second mortgage writedowns

Edward Harrison — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 19:14:47 +0000

In the lead-up to the credit crisis, I really didn’t write a considerable amount about second mortgages despite my focus on credit writedowns. At that time, I was more focused on writedowns from securitized mortgage paper (and later construction loans and commercial real estate because of the stress these loan types put on regional financials).

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More credit card writedowns are coming 1 Apr 2009
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Pension execs connect pension problems to hiring

Edward Harrison — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 01:07:28 +0000

While many companies can use the huge increase in market returns to mask a looming pension crisis, the problem is still acute. Because of actuarial accounting, pension funding problems are pro-cyclical. Companies look flush with cash during upswings to the point where the pensions can actually goose earnings. During downswings, this process works in reverse.

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Lehman pension shortfall is a foreshadowing 23 Sep 2008
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On releasing Citi from TARP and banking by accounting subterfuge

Edward Harrison — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 16:54:41 +0000

Credit Writedowns has made it clear how little will there is in Washington for substantive reform in financial services. But, let’s be more explicit in this post about what policy makers are doing. I will use the recent Citigroup TARP brouhaha and changes to the implementation timetable of accounting rules as the vehicle for this

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U.S. forfeiting billions in future taxes to let Citi repay TARP 16 Dec 2009
Regionals options suffer due to accounting rules 10 Sep 2008
Reaching for yield in the post-TARP era 4 Dec 2009

U.S. forfeiting billions in future taxes to let Citi repay TARP

Edward Harrison — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 05:50:39 +0000

The Washington Post is reporting that the federal government has quietly decided to exempt Citigroup from a large future tax bill in allowing it to exit the TARP program. This is a backdoor bailout worth billions and is an outrage that demonstrates the lengths to which government will go to gift these organizations taxpayer money.

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Citi to repay $20 billion in bailout money 14 Dec 2009
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John Hussman: Expect meagre returns in an overvalued market

Edward Harrison — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 04:32:48 +0000

John Hussman’s latest weekly contribution contends that the market is now extremely overvalued, to the point where long-term returns will likely be low. As of last week, the S&P 500 nearly matched the richest valuations, on normalized earnings, ever observed prior to 1995. While it is quite true that valuations have been higher for the

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John Hussman on Reckless Myopia 1 Dec 2009
Jeremy Grantham: The market is 25% overvalued; 15% correction coming 26 Oct 2009
Expect continued losses from Nordic bank exposure outside home market 8 Dec 2009

Expect continued losses from Nordic bank exposure outside home market

Edward Harrison — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 23:46:58 +0000

Moody’s anticipates continued losses at Danske Bank, SEB, and Swedbank due to large exposure outside of the Nordic markets. In particular, exposure in the Baltics is likely to lead to continued writedowns for Nordic banking institutions. The Irish Independent reports: Danske Bank A/S, SEB AB and Swedbank AB will keep suffering losses from their non-Nordic

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Sweden prepares for financial collapse in Latvia and major bank losses at home 5 Oct 2009
Austrian banks have emerging-market financial exposure that is 70% of GDP 5 Jan 2009
Deutsche Bank: Loan losses will double in 2009 5 Jan 2009

Reaching for yield in the post-TARP era

Edward Harrison — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 14:28:17 +0000

When I read Yves Smith’s recent comments on Bank of America’s repayment of its TARP funds, I couldn’t help but think of a post I wrote six months ago called "Asymmetric information and corporate governance in bank bailouts." The gist is of the post is about the same as Yves’ and it was inspired by

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TARP was sold to Americans under false pretenses 6 Oct 2009
Some banks not paying TARP dividends 8 Oct 2009
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S&P cuts Bank of Ireland’s rating while Goldman says buy

Edward Harrison — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 18:39:14 +0000

After going bullish on bank stocks in April, two months ago I said most of the upside in bank shares was priced in. Since that time, shares have traded sideways to down. I expect this trend to continue as headwinds like another wave of writedowns in the housing sector is felt. Credit Suisse came to

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Quelle Surprise! Most Big Banks Lack Capital

Edward Harrison — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 01:49:39 +0000

My post title is an ode to Yves Smith, who likes to feign surprise when the blindingly obvious finally comes into plain view for all to see. The latest sign that underneath the surface weakness remains at large financial institutions comes courtesy of Standard & Poors. According to the Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, S&P believes many

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Goldman thinks banks need even more capital 18 Jun 2008
European banks have hands out for more capital 18 Mar 2009
Investors finally balk at giving banks more capital 22 Jun 2008

Credit Suisse cautious on Citigroup due to regulatory hurdles

Edward Harrison — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 14:55:07 +0000

Credit Suisse has a note out urging caution on Citigroup shares due to regulatory hurdles. Their logic bears noting as it can be useful for other U.S.-based banks. On Monday the CS analysts met with Citi management, who were somewhat cautious. The CS note indicates that regulatory changes in the U.S. are likely to mandate

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Why GM is repaying bailout money while it is still loss-making

Edward Harrison — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 16:07:13 +0000

There are a lot of threads to tie together in today’s reporting of news in the auto sector. General Motors has reported a third-quarter loss of $1.15 billion. But all indications are that car sales continue to outpace expectations in the United States. Meanwhile, there are conflicting stories that GM both plans to pay back

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How much money is Wells Fargo really making? 23 Oct 2009
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How well capitalized is Citigroup?

Edward Harrison — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 20:44:33 +0000

In a recent post, “How is Citi going to deal with $38 billion in deferred tax assets?,” I pointed to a Reuters article which called into question Citigroup’s ability to earn enough money to prevent its having to take a charge for an incredibly large deferred tax asset. That post generated a response from a

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How is Citi going to deal with $38 billion in deferred tax assets?

Edward Harrison — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 20:01:11 +0000

Citigroup has been losing tens of billions of dollars over the past two years as the financial crisis has unfolded. If one considers the government capital that Citi has not paid back, the bank is clearly the weakest of the four largest legacy banking behemoths in the United States. Earnings results this year demonstrate that

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How much money is Wells Fargo really making?

Edward Harrison — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 16:30:26 +0000

The positive earnings announcement by Wells Fargo on Wednesday was marred by a sell recommendation from Dick Bove and a lot of chatter about credit writedowns and mortgage servicing rights (MSRs). I wanted to add a few words about the report, MSRs, and bank stocks more generally. First of all, this has been a very

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On Meredith Whitney’s Goldman downgrade

Edward Harrison — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:13:18 +0000

Meredith Whitney downgraded Goldman Sachs from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’ today. Previously, Goldman had been her only buy recommended stock, all of the others rated neutral or ‘sell.’ Why did she do it? FT Alphaville has the answer: We are downgrading shares of Goldman Sachs to Neutral from Buy after over a 34% run in price

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Bearish on bank stocks

Edward Harrison — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 18:06:51 +0000

I think it should be abundantly clear that I am bearish on financials given my sell equities call two weeks ago. After all, it was the banking sector which I was most bullish on in April – August. They are also the stocks that have run up the most as well. But now is the

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Fannie reports $171 billion in non-performing loans

Edward Harrison — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 00:13:19 +0000

Fannie Mae has the luxury of marking its accounts more accurately because they have no fear of being nationalized or going bust since they already have hit the wall. So, when we read the latest quarterly results from Fannie Mae, we are not just seeing a glimpse of Fannie’s reckless financing, but of the American

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Fannie and Freddie need $75 billion 8 Jul 2008
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Earnings results at Swedish banks show large writedowns in Baltics

Edward Harrison — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 10:30:03 +0000

Earnings season is upon us and the Swedish banks have begun reporting earnings. Their results have seen huge writedowns that demonstrate large and continued exposure to souring loans in the Baltics. Handelsbanken and Nordea reported today. Despite the writedowns, you do get the sense that things are going better than expected as the banks beat

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Spain’s savings banks may have 40 billion in writedowns 3 Apr 2009
Level Three Assets: banks are hiding the ball on credit writedowns 11 Dec 2008
Are the Baltics the new Argentina? 30 Jul 2008

Hypo Real Estate need for 10 billion also reveals huge problems in Spain

Edward Harrison — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 01:58:43 +0000

Every country has a problem child or two in the financial services sector. America has Citigroup and Bank of America. Britain has RBS and HBOS/Lloyds. And Germany has Hypo Real Estate. I have been chronicling problems at the real estate lender on this blog for some time now and last posted on HRE in April

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Hypo Real Estate: 600 billion in off-balance sheet assets 20 Feb 2009
Germany: banking system collapse possible due to Hypo Real Estate 4 Oct 2008
Is this Austrian real estate company a canary in the coalmine? 30 Dec 2008

JPMorgan has record revenue and $2.7 billion in profit

Edward Harrison — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 14:06:10 +0000

While Citi and BofA are getting taken to the woodshed for double secret probation, JPMorgan Chase is showing record revenue of $25.6 billion and a large profit of $2.7 billion. As profit is up 36% from a year earlier and 27% from just last quarter, you can see that JPM is now firing on all

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RBS reports a record loss of 24 billion pounds 26 Feb 2009
JPMorgan: Beats expectations despite writedowns 15 Jan 2009
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Wells sells $600 million in distressed assets at 35 cents on dollar

Edward Harrison — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 13:47:11 +0000

I got a tip from a friend Andrew about a sale of assets by Wells Fargo (WFC) which raises a number of interesting questions. He sent me the following 14 July article from the Milwaukee Business Journal. Wells Fargo sold $600 million in mostly non-performing subprime loans to Irvine, Calif.-based Arch Bay Capital, National Mortgage

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Goldman crushes earnings estimates

Edward Harrison — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:38:23 +0000

This comes via Bloomberg: Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s second- quarter profit exceeded analysts’ estimates as record trading and stock underwriting led the company to its highest quarterly profit. Net income in the three months ended June 26 was $3.44 billion, or $4.93 a share, the New York-based bank said today in a statement. That surpassed

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Goldman loses $2.1 in the third quarter 16 Dec 2008
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Is Meredith Whitney bullish now?

Edward Harrison — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 16:12:28 +0000

Just when I was wondering where Meredith Whitney had gone, she’s back. But she has a whole new tone to her. In this interview on CNBC, she says she is expecting a monster number from Goldman (GS) tomorrow morning, in 2010 and in 2011. She is well above the street on Goldman. She even uses

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Financial Alchemy at Morgan Stanley: Greywolf A3 CDOs now Aaa bonds

Edward Harrison — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 19:58:37 +0000

The Online Merriam-Webster Dictionary describes alchemy as “a power or process of transforming something common into something special” or “aiming to achieve the transmutation of the base metals into gold.” Well, it seems Morgan Stanley is engaging in some financial alchemy because it is about to trade near-junk rated paper for Aaa gold-standard bonds (hat

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Goldman and Morgan Stanley are now banks 22 Sep 2008
Morgan Stanley: rogue trader goes missing 20 Jun 2008
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Alcoa earnings on deck, but focus on FedEx and UPS

Edward Harrison — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 11:46:13 +0000

I have been looking forward to the Alcoa (AA) earnings report, due out later today, because of what it suggests about the economy. As the economy bottoms, the fortunes of cyclical companies that are leveraged to the overall state of the economy turn up. As Alcoa is the first company to report every earnings season

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If FedEx is losing money, you know the economy is in bad shape 18 Jun 2009
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Consumer loan delinquencies paint bleak picture

Edward Harrison — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 13:36:16 +0000

This comes from Reuters: Fallout from a still deteriorating housing market caused the rate of consumer loan payments at least 30 days late to rise to 3.23 percent in the January-to-March period from 3.22 percent in the 2008 fourth quarter, the American Bankers Association said. Delinquencies were the highest since the ABA began tracking the

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Commodities are getting killed

Edward Harrison — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 08:05:49 +0000

This morning, stock markets are down in Asia and Europe. And Futures show a likely decline in the U.S. What’s happening? I think we are seeing the March rally hitting the wall as the technical recovery everyone is anticipating looks to come later and to be less robust. As a result, commodities are selling off

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Treasurys are getting killed again 21 May 2009

What’s in your wallet? Probably higher interest rates.

Edward Harrison — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 18:22:06 +0000

FT Alphaville is reporting that the credit rating agency Fitch puts credit card losses at 10.4% of outstanding loans. This is a record. Bad news if you are a credit card company. So, what does one do in that situation? You raise rates on customers that are paying, silly. Citi’s rate increases emerged on the

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What’s in your wallet? Probably higher interest rates. originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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If FedEx is losing money, you know the economy is in bad shape

Edward Harrison — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:04:00 +0000

Last month I said that June was significant for two reasons. First, we are going to get our first test of data that could disappoint, which would spell trouble for an overbought market. But, just as important, we need to watch the industrials because there is going to be no sustainable recovery unless these cyclical

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U.K.’s Nationwide releases robust earnings and capital report

Edward Harrison — Wed, 27 May 2009 06:50:29 +0000

On the face of it, Nationwide’s earnings report looks extremely good: 15% Tier 1 Capital, Pre-tax profit of nearly £400 million. Given this financial institution’s leverage to the residential housing market, their results stand in stark contrast to the likes of Chelsea, which was downgraded by Fitch last week with four other U.K. building societies.

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Nationwide: Press release on Dunfermline acquisition 30 Mar 2009
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