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Big in Japan

Michael Pettis — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 13:30:00 +0000

As I see it, Japan’s problem was that during the 1980s it was so addicted to investment-led growth and artificially cheap financing that it misallocated capital on a massive scale and failed to include the resulting implicit losses in its GDP calculations. If you look at real per capita household income and household consumption growth during the period of Japan’s stagnation, you will find that both of them rose fairly rapidly. This isn’t what typically happens during a US-style financial crisis, when household income suffers

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Falling Oil Prices: A Worrying Trend and Saving Grace

Casey Research — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 23:00:59 +0000

When oil prices start to decline, investors and economists get worried. Oil prices in large part reflect global sentiment towards our economic future - prosperous, growing economies need more oil while slumping, shrinking economies need less, and so the price of crude indicates whether the majority believes we are headed for good times or bad. That explains the worry - those worried investors and economists are using oil prices as an indicator, and falling prices indicate bad times ahead

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Some predictions for the rest of the decade

Michael Pettis — Sun, 28 Aug 2011 22:30:55 +0000

Markets have been crazy this month, but rather than try to wade through all the news, much of which doesn’t seem to have much informational content, I thought I would duck out altogether and instead make a list of things I expect will happen over the next several years

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Who said this: Obama or Hoover?

Edward Harrison — Fri, 19 Aug 2011 16:00:00 +0000

This is a brief follow-up to my post yesterday proclaiming that this is looking more like Hoover every day. Credit Writedowns reader Greg came across the statement below. Who said it, Herbert Hoover or Barack Obama

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US real 10 year yields at record 225bpt discount to JGBs

Edward Harrison — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 13:15:00 +0000

PIMCO, the world’ largest bond fund call this suppression of yields financial repression because it means savers and bond investors get negative real returns. However, John Hempton pointed out that in Japan, where this monetary policy is well-advanced, deflation has set in and real yields are positive despite the zero-rate interest policy (ZIRP)

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The lessons of the crisis of 40 years ago

Guest Author — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 00:00:53 +0000

Andy Lees takes a sceptical view of fiat currency and the excess credit it has created over the past forty years and uses a few charts to demonstrate his points

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Bretton Woods, R.I.P.

Marc Chandler — Mon, 15 Aug 2011 13:00:29 +0000

Richard Nixon unilaterally closed the gold window 40 years ago today. No longer would the U.S. permit other countries to exchange their dollars for gold and by breaking that link, he ended the Bretton Woods international financial regime and ushered floating exchange rates that characterize the modern era

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It’s Over

Frederick Sheehan — Sun, 14 Aug 2011 18:00:45 +0000

The classification of assets according to such dreary concoctions as "mid-cap growth," comparative asset benchmarks is now over

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Policy Conclusions for Russia (Part 2)

Michael Hudson — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 18:30:00 +0000

Can Russia get the best of both worlds by freeing its economy from technologically unnecessary charges and rentier tolls paid to special interests? Such expenditures prevent the economy from developing. That is the basic cause of poverty – and hence of national decline. Now that neoliberal financial lobbyists have turned Progressive Era economic reforms upside down, it is necessary to “reform the reformers” in order for Russia to rebuild its economy in the way that made the U.S. and Western Europe so successful during their economic takeoffs

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Russia’s Economic Interests (Part 1)

Michael Hudson — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 17:30:00 +0000

The neoliberal idea is to dismantle the government’s ability to regulate markets to steer growth and economic advance in the national interest. They claim that this is an alternative to centralized planning. But the reality is that it simply centralizes planning in the hands of bankers – primarily those of Wall Street and the City of London, followed by financial interests in satellite economies and other subordinate partners in this policy

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