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Chart of the day: 2012 sovereign risk compression

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 02:00:35 +0000

Great data from Bespoke. Looks like Portugal is the odd man out as the only government in which its CDS spreads have widened this year

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Chart of the day: 2012 sovereign risk compression originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Chart of the day: Labor force participation rate at 30-year low

Edward Harrison — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 17:40:11 +0000

The jobs data were the best we have seen in a long time and well above expectations. This and the first upward revisions to the annual revisions were a pleasant surprise. While a lot of people are in disbelief because of a present bearish bias, you have to take the numbers for what they are and they are bullish. I still feel that the US economy is at stall speed and expect a second recession by the end of 2013 but I am prepared to upgrade my assessment based on how things proceed. That said, this is just one month's data in a notoriously noisy month for employment data (See the premium post Jobless claims jump may be seasonality)

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Chart of the Day: Government Deficits as Far as the Eye Can See

Edward Harrison — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 21:51:17 +0000

The chart below from the blog Pragmatic Capitalism shows the U.S. Federal government deficit for each quarter since 1952. As you can see, almost the entire period is marked by deficits

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Chart of the Day: Government Deficits as Far as the Eye Can See originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Chart of the Day: S&P500 Up 4.36% in January

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 02:30:54 +0000

Interesting couple of charts on the S&P500. The top shows the narrowing upward channel in which the index has traded since the beginning of the year relative to the wider medium-term channel. The collapse in volatility was the direct result of the massive liquidity injections of the ECB’s LTRO program, in our opinion

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Chart of the Day: Permanent Zero and Personal Interest Income

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 22:22:38 +0000

If you are a retiree, you're not happy these days. Five years ago, you were getting a decent return on your fixed income investments. But since then, the Fed has trashed the fixed income market by reducing interest rates to zero percent for "an extended period". The thinking is that this will get people to take on more credit. But the reality is that a lot of people are stuffed to the gills with existing credit and are not creditworthy. The Fed is pushing on a string

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Chart of the Day: Permanent Zero and Personal Interest Income originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Chart of the Day: Gold reacts to FOMC rate easing

Edward Harrison — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 18:00:19 +0000

The Fed has come out 9-1 in favor of rate easing i.e. capping medium-term treasury rates. The interesting bit is that while the Fed did the exact same thing in August out to two years, this announcement takes permanent zero out to nearly three years. That's rate easing. Some people call it financial repression. And it's gold bullish

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Chart of the Day: Gold reacts to FOMC rate easing originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Chart of the Day: Is Gold About to Get a Monetary Blast (Off)?

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 20:30:03 +0000

Watch gold as it pushes up against the downtrend line. Any hints from the Fed of QE3 could send it “to the Moon, Alice!” The Fed rejoining the party and the LTRO2 coming next month could be an explosive mix

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Chart of the Day: Developed economies’ debt levels by sector

Edward Harrison — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 14:00:41 +0000

This is a great chart below via the Wall Street Journal. It shows the total debt to GDP ratios for the largest developed economies in the world broken down into four sectors: households, non-financial corporations, financial institutions and government

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Chart of the Day: Developed economies’ debt levels by sector originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Chart of the Day: The Ultimate European Government Debt Chart

Marc Chandler — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 17:11:27 +0000

Check out the below graphic which shows General Government Deficit/Surplus as % of GDP on the Y axis, Government Debt as % of GDP on the X axis, and the Government Debt in Euros as the size of the bubble. Pretty cool!

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Chart of the Day: U.S. Gasoline Consumption Tanks in 2011

Global Macro Monitor — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 21:00:00 +0000

A chart of gasoline consumption and oil prices for the years 2000-

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Chart of the Day: U.S. Gasoline Consumption Tanks in 2011 originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Chart of the Day: Bank credit card fees induce big antitrust lawsuit

Edward Harrison — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 01:30:30 +0000

So why are these big name retailers suing the big banks. It's this chart that appears to be the smoking gun. Credit card interchange fees are the highest by a large margin. Clearly those charges that go into the bank and credit card companies' coffers are either absorbed by retailers or passed on to consumers

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Chart of the Day: Greek workers work 48% more hours than Germans

Marc Chandler — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 14:30:00 +0000

While many will be initially surprised by the data, on reflection it makes intuitive sense. In crude terms, wealthier countries typically work smarter--more capital intensively--than poor countries, not longer

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Chart of the Day: The Shanghai Bounce

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 21:00:05 +0000

The Shanghai has put in its best two day performance since September ’09, rising 5.8 percent. After its post crash peak in August 2009, Chinese stocks have fallen almost 40 percent before hitting their lows last Friday

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Chart of the Day: Dollar Top or Breakout?

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 14:30:06 +0000

Tough to bet on a triple top here. Looks like 82.60 is the next key level, which is the .618 fib retracement of the June 7, 2010/May 2, 2011 move

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Chart of the Day: S&P500 2011 Heat Map

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 16:24:11 +0000

A visual representation of how stocks in the S&P 500 fared in 2011 with Green for gains and red for losses

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Chart of the Day: S&P500 2011 Heat Map originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Chart of the Day: Market Year in Review

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 19:20:06 +0000

Wow! Who would of thunk it. The Dow the only major global equity index positive for the year. U.S. Treasuries up 15-20 percent, the dollar index (Dixe) positive; Brazil and Chinese equities down 20 percent and India down almost 25 percent. Copper was on everybody’s buy list at the beginning year, finished down over 20 percent; and foodstuffs had nowhere to go but north, finishing flat after spiking earlier in the year and taking most of the political leaders in North Africa with them

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Chart of the Day: International Manufacturing Compensation Costs Compared

Global Macro Monitor — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 16:30:36 +0000

Great data from the BLS comparing hourly compensation for manufacturing. The second chart looks at the benefits component of the hourly cost

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Chart of the Day: U.S. Real Earnings through November 2011

Global Macro Monitor — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 14:00:04 +0000

Only three positive months in the last year. Lots of pain out there. Be charitable this holiday season, our friends. The return is tremendous

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Chart of the Day: U.S. Real Earnings through November 2011 originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Chart of the Day: The ECB Balance Sheet

Edward Harrison — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 23:00:02 +0000

Who says the ECB can't keep up with the Fed. As the euro crisis has caused liquidity for euro zone banks to dry up, the ECB has taken on the intermediation role. In essence, they have taken on the dollar liquidity function that the US money markets used to provide via its bank liquidity operations and currency swaps with the Fed

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Chart of the Day: China’s Financial Architecture

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 22:00:49 +0000

Now the bubble is visibly bursting. How much damage will it do to the Chinese economy — and the world? That is our homework assignment over the holiday. Getting it right will determine 2012′s investment and trading returns, in our opinion. We leave you with an excellent flowchart and table from the IMF explaining China’s financial architecture

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Chart of the Day: European Bank Recapitalization

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 04:34:04 +0000

A chart with a country by country breakdown of the over 100 billion euros of additional capital needed by euro zone banks

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Chart of the Day: European Bank Recapitalization originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Chart of the Day: Post-Bubble Performance Comps of U.S. Financials and Techs

Global Macro Monitor — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 14:35:12 +0000

The guys over at Bespoke put out a great piece yesterday comparing the post-bubble performance of U.S. financials after the February 2007 top and the technology sector after the dot.com peak in March 2000.

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Chart of the Day: Post-Bubble Performance Comps of U.S. Financials and Techs originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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More Charts of the Day: Italy Works Over 20% More Hours Than Germany and France

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 19:45:52 +0000

The stereotype of lazy southern Europe and the hard working North is just not reflected in the data. We came across this BLS data set over the weekend which was very enlightening and, in part, smashes this widely held generalization

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The Ugly Chart Contest

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 18:00:00 +0000

Here’s a couple ugly charts we’re monitoring: China’s Shanghai Composite stock index and Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB). Do you think there’s causality here? Remember the “China is buying/hoarding every commodity” story

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Chart of the day: Euro nations with largest deterioration in fiscal situation

Edward Harrison — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 14:15:55 +0000

Here are two interesting charts courtesy of the Macro Business Superblog. In outlining how the latest European crisis response policy fails to deal with the underlying issues in Euroland, Macro Business also illuminated the individual debt and deficit trajectory of each euro nation. The charts highlight where the euro area countries have broken the Maastricht stability and growth pact criteria

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Chart of the Day: S&P500 Finding Resistance At 200-DMA

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 02:00:39 +0000

Looked like today could be the day the S&P500 broke through and closed above its 200-day. That is, before the tape bomb out of the S&P putting most of the ‘Zone countries on negative watch for a credit downgrade. Let’s see how this plays out in in Europe tomorrow and whether the hardliners in Germany say, “… told you so!’” The chart of S&P500 shows why the 200-day moving average matters and should be monitored

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Chart of the Day: U.S. Payroll Employment By Industry, November 2011

Global Macro Monitor — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 23:39:32 +0000

A breakdown of employment gains and losses by industry plus an excerpt of what the BLS had to say about this morning’s employment report

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Chart of the day: the graph that shows why the central banks had to act

Edward Harrison — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 22:48:15 +0000

What is clear is that, with the U.S. dollar as the world’s major reserve currency, this move to lower the price on U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements is due to the world’s banks being short U.S. dollars. In the past few days, there have been rumors that a European bank was on the verge of failure due to a lack of U.S. dollar liquidity

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Chart of the Day: The Future of the Euro

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 00:46:51 +0000

A decision tree on what the future of the euro would look like based on different policy responses

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Chart of the day: Germany’s finances not as sound as believed

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 18:47:32 +0000

This will surprise many. Der Spiegel reports that Germany’s fiscal management is not as “exemplary” as most perceive

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Chart of the Day: China’s Credit Bubble

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 13:00:00 +0000

This chart from the IMF illustrates how China was able to skirt — in relative terms — the deep economic contraction by generating a huge expansion in domestic credit and increase in its money supple. This, while credit was contracting in the rest of the developed world

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Chart of the day: Definitive guide to the European debt web

Edward Harrison — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:08:15 +0000

The BBC has a terrific chart tool that gives you a good feel for exactly how much the sovereign debtors in each of the European countries owes and to which other countries. The great thing about this chart is that it also shows you the debt flows outside of the European periphery i.e. for France and Germany, as well as for Japan, the US and Britain in both directions

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Chart of the day: Hours of work needed to buy an ounce of gold

Global Macro Monitor — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 16:38:05 +0000

Central banks have done a great job at driving up the price of gold but a horrible job at creating wage inflation. If it now takes 88 hours to buy an ounce of gold versus 20 hours in 2000, hasn’t that grossly deflated real wages in a strict monetary sense? Just askin’

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Chart of the day: Indebtedness of all AAA sovereign credits

Edward Harrison — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 01:34:13 +0000

The following numbers come from a recent article in Die Welt on the backlash in Europe against the ratings agencies

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Chart of the day: Indebtedness of all AAA sovereign credits originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Chart of the day: Contagion spreads to the Netherlands

Edward Harrison — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 17:00:00 +0000

Yesterday, I showed you that contagion had spread and default probabilities were blowing out right across Europe. Every single name on the list for sovereign credit default wideners was European and names like Austria, Estonia, and Slovakia showed marked deterioration, with default probabilities over 10%. Today is no different. The Netherlands is the notable credit to deteriorate today

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Chart of the day: Contagion spreads to the Netherlands originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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