Bill Gross on Risk Seeking Return and Safe Carry

Bill Gross is out with his monthly commentary. Because his points are central to the discussion of policy and markets right now, I am going to write this weekly newsletter commentary outside the paywall. The major question is about how to invest in a world that levers much more slowly in total, and can delever sharply in selective sectors and countries. Gross has some answers and I have some comments on the macro backdrop

It’s a Dead-Man-Walking Economy

In an interview with Louis James, the inimitable Doug Casey throws cold water on those celebrating the economic recovery

Chart of the Day: Government Deficits as Far as the Eye Can See

The chart below from the blog Pragmatic Capitalism shows the U.S. Federal government deficit for each quarter since 1952. As you can see, almost the entire period is marked by deficits

Functional Finance and Exchange Rate Regimes: The Twin Deficits Debate

In conclusion, while there are links between the “twin deficits”, they are not the links usually imagined. US trade and budget deficits are linked, but they do not put the US in an unsustainable position vis a vis the Chinese. If the Chinese and other net exporters (such as Japan) decide they prefer fewer dollar assets, this will be linked to a desire to sell fewer products to America. This is a particularly likely scenario for the Chinese, who are rapidly developing their economy and creating a nation of consumers. But the transition will not be abrupt

[Premium] The Ultimate QE is the Fed’s Coming Purchase of Real Assets

I would bet on near-systemic collapse before the Fed starts either asset purchases or Congress resorts to fiscal activism. But eventually, the Fed is going to purchase more than just treasuries. They will purchase a lot of financial assets and probably some real assets as well

[Premium] Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2012

Welcome to Credit Writedowns Pro. This is the first post in a series here. Let me start this Byron Wien-style and make a predictions list. Wien defines his surprises as events to which investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happening but which he believes have a more than 50 percent likelihood of occurring in 2012. That’s how I am playing it too

Krugman, Tabarrok, Cowen and the bond vigilante fallacy

I don’t expect any response from Paul Krugman, Alex Tabarrok or Tyler Cowen on this but they know who I am and read my articles from time to time. I am going to add my voice to a debate they have been having in the blogosphere on debt, deficits and bond vigilantes. It goes like this

What is Modern Money Theory?

OK, you might be wondering: Isn’t this a strange point at which to raise the question, “what is modern money theory?” Yes, in some important ways, it is. However in the past week there have been some really pretty extraordinary pieces in the popular media trumpeting

Bond vigilantes and the currency relief valve

The last post by Randall Wray below is an interesting one because it points out how the world has changed since the end of the gold standard and why the sovereign debt crisis is centered in the euro zone.

While I have an Austrian bias overall, for me, MMT is the best way to think about nonconvertible floating exchange rate systems as distinct from fixed exchange rate, currency board, pegged and convertible systems. The difference is policy space and what I would call the bond vigilante relief valve

The money scoreboard

This post is intended to be a hopefully brief synopsis of how the monetary system works using an Austrian framing with MMT terminology. If you don’t know what that means, you’ll see what I mean as I proceed. MMTers like to say that money is like points and the government is just a scorekeeper. I

What They Are Doing?

The quantity of debt grows as the quality recedes. The problem of bad loans is no longer just the pre-2008 mortgages, CDOs, and LBOs. Debt issued after the bust is defaulting, such as Greek sovereign bonds, issued in June 2010. Some securities are born to part investors from their money, but it’s remarkable the extent and variety of such instruments issued in 2011. The world choked on similar bonds and derivatives only three years ago, many of which are still held at false prices on financial institutions’ books

Mosler: Why Greece should not be allowed to default

Warren Mosler argues that it is the realization that the ECB is the issuer of the currency, and is therefore not revenue constrained, that leads to the conclusion that not allowing Greece to default best serves public purpose